Prospero Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 The observed tide is higher than the predicted and we have a few hours to go in Pinellas County. https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inundationdb/cidstorm.html?stormname=Helene 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Jon Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Things are about to pick up. Yeah, lightning starting to kick back up. Helene's gettin' pissed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Things are about to pick up. Man that's going to be a wild ride. You live there or chasing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 3 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: Radar attenuation. Those towers are very large and blocking view of the west and south side of the storm. Reason why the intensification is surprising to you because you didn’t account for such. It's weird how the same area isn't filled in regardless of radar used, and that it isn't attenuating the area further away based on the radar location. It's a strange explanation that defies my understanding of how a radar functions, but it comes up every time we have one of these storms, which is why I remember they have this look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 ADT satellite estimates suggest we have leveled off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Despite the southern eyewall opening on radar, VDM says its closed. Also, velocities continue to intensify on radar, Helene is still intensifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Jon Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Can't believe the Hurricane Hunters in the blown Orion are heading back IN? That's some huevos! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 5 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: Radar attenuation. Those towers are very large and blocking view of the west and south side of the storm. Reason why the intensification is surprising to you because you didn’t account for such. 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Things are about to pick up. Wouldn't be surprised if you lost cell signal with the outside of the wall. Those towers keep backbuilding NE of their predecessors. The lightning must be incredible from some vantages. The lack of radar returns on the SSW side are exactly 180 degrees counter to the tallest towers. Enjoy the ride, be safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Velocities from KTLH now 150-160mph aloft in the NE quadrant. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 6 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: Radar attenuation. Those towers are very large and blocking view of the west and south side of the storm. Reason why the intensification is surprising to you because you didn’t account for such. We literally do this every single storm storm. Because they always look this way. Regardless of if it’s attenuation or not, nobody should be surprised the backside eyewall looks ragged. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Just now, MN Transplant said: Velocities from KTLH now 150-160mph aloft in the NE quadrant. Same with TBW even on the edge of the beam, it’s fierce no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 6 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: Radar attenuation. Those towers are very large and blocking view of the west and south side of the storm. Reason why the intensification is surprising to you because you didn’t account for such. It is not radar attenuation. Both radars, TLH and TBW show it. Also noted on IR imagery. It’s clearly the intense convection helping. Other storms have shown some raggedness, but she’s really helping offset this with vigorous convection NW to NE of the center. It was just an observation. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 1 minute ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: Radar attenuation. Those towers are very large and blocking view of the west and south side of the storm. Reason why the intensification is surprising to you because you didn’t account for such. That’s not really attenuation. What’s happening is that the density of the precipitable water is such that the majority of the transmit pulse energy is returned to the transmitter at that point. The energy that DOES get through that first “wall” is too weak to reflect a signal back through it, so it appears like there’s nothing beyond those first returns. likely a hardware limitation if I had to guess. Though there might be a way with time domain reflectometry to recover some of that energy. Would be a cool grad student project. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gallopinggertie Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Can someone shed some light on how such a quickly-moving storm is able to RI? I always heard that fast forward motion inhibits intensification. But obviously that’s not always true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 The northern eyewall is the only part producing lightning. The southern eyewall is likely not open but it's also weaker. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Buoy data says the eye has passed it The pictures that the buoy is sending back are pretty cool looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Jon Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: The northern eyewall is the only part producing lightning. The southern eyewall is likely not open but it's also weaker. Well, yeah. That's just basic physics. That's where you'd expect lightning to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: The northern eyewall is the only part producing lightning. The southern eyewall is likely not open but it's also weaker. Agreed. People saying attenuation are denying the fact that we can see directly into the southern eyewall from TBW radar and the northern with TLH. It’s likely closed but it’s robbed of the convection which are those VHT’s and mesovorts in the N/NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Jon Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 speaking of core lightning... wow! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Family that has a back yard along Sarasota Bay has the ocean lapping into their home tonight. First time in the 12 years of them there. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 I’m interested to see if there are any frictional effects to tighten the convection and give this a bit more symmetry on its way in. NE eyewall is 58 miles from shore at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 That’s a good looking storm on IR. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Latest radar panel- the eye is noticeably contracting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 What a nice eye. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Pretty incredible to see the similarities between this storm and Michael. The IR presentation and evolution approaching landfall is even remarkably similar 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 2 minutes ago, gymengineer said: Latest radar panel- the eye is noticeably contracting. Land interaction will tighten it up a bit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 8 minutes ago, NeffsvilleWx said: That’s not really attenuation. What’s happening is that the density of the precipitable water is such that the majority of the transmit pulse energy is returned to the transmitter at that point. The energy that DOES get through that first “wall” is too weak to reflect a signal back through it, so it appears like there’s nothing beyond those first returns. likely a hardware limitation if I had to guess. Though there might be a way with time domain reflectometry to recover some of that energy. Would be a cool grad student project. If this is so, why does a radar to the east of the storm in Tampa show the same as one in Tallahassee. The explanation makes no sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 If the lightning strikes continue, it'll be fun to use GIS comparison maps on overlay for Michael's approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 4 minutes ago, gymengineer said: Latest radar panel- the eye is noticeably contracting. Gorgeous breakdown of barotropic instability resulting in scalloping on the eyewall. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 This is quite the dropsonde from the eastern eyewall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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