Doc Jon Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 4 minutes ago, George001 said: Chances of category 5 at landfall? Don't know if there's enough time over the water but anything's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Basically the worst case scenario is unfolding and we still have a few more hours to go. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Note to add that once this gets into that part of Georgia and VLD northward, we start getting into some pretty densely populated areas (Warner Robbins, Macon, Albany, Athens) Anything like that needs to be east of center 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 6 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: My God, look at far east those crazy winds extend, not sure how much of that mixes down to surface but I hope people run for there lives if they haven't yet! And to note, that is the buoy by the center, looks like it will go just east of it! This is extremely important and worrying for surge. Massive hurricane force wind field combined with coastal geometry could easily yield 20+ft surge in spots. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diggiebot Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 7 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: My God, look at far east those crazy winds extend, not sure how much of that mixes down to surface but I hope people run for there lives if they haven't yet! And to note, that is the buoy by the center, looks like it will go just east of it! This looks bad for Tampa bay even without the eye being very close. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Just now, TheDreamTraveler said: Basically the worst case scenario is unfolding and we still have a few more hours to go. It is the worst case scenario except for missing big population centers with the worst of it. Not much help to the people who are in its path, of course, and there are still many. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Anything like that needs to be east of center 100%, question will be where does it go after LF which is our biggest question. We pretty much know VLD will be near the eastern eyewall, but will see straighten up and move more due N or hold that NNE heading. huge implications for the 75 corridor depending on that outcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 17 minutes ago, NeonPeon said: It is the worst case scenario except for missing big population centers with the worst of it. Not much help to the people who are in its path, of course, and there are still many. I'm afraid there could be many lives lost, and many trees lost. The timber industry, farmers are going be hurt badly. There's nothing good about this situation at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 26 Author Share Posted September 26 With things starting to pick up here, I will no longer be updating wind and pressure in the title of the thread. As is usually the case, I have support from folks that can let y’all know I’m ok in the likely event I lose signal. For this trip I’ve been conferring with @MillvilleWx & @ORH_wxman. Will update as I can of course. Pressure down to 994.6mb here. 25 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: With things starting to pick up here, I will no longer be updating wind and pressure in the title of the thread. As is usually the case, I have support from folks that can let y’all know I’m ok in the likely event I lose signal. For this trip I’ve been conferring with @MillvilleWx & @ORH_wxman. Will update as I can of course. Pressure down to 994.6mb here. Stay safe down there, need you for the winter tracking! She’s a monster now coming in, you’ll get all you bargained for it you’re holding steady in Perry. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 A friend of mine is on a spit of land near Clearwater called Dunedin Beach and he said it’s getting pretty intense. They are four stories up in a sturdy building and I’m sure they will be fine but this is when you start questioning if you should have stayed or not. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 We may of lost the buoy... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: A friend of mine is on a spit of land near Clearwater called Dunedin Beach and he said it’s getting pretty intense. They are four stories up in a sturdy building and I’m sure they will be fine but this is when you start questioning if you should have stayed or not. They probably should have left. But too late now to do so. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 26 Author Share Posted September 26 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Stay safe down there, need you for the winter tracking! She’s a monster now coming in, you’ll get all you bargained for it you’re holding steady in Perry. All but certain to stay here. In a strong building and so far the heading looks solid. Even if the eye is a touch west, we’ll likely be in the RFQ. Fully expecting a Laura like event now, which is saying a lot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 If colder cloud tops wrap around the southern part of the eye, we are probably looking at pressure readings in the 930s 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said: We may of lost the buoy... That does happen. I use to set those in the Coast Guard. They snap their chain mooring. I have pulled them off the beach and everything. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: All but certain to stay here. In a strong building and so far the heading looks solid. Even if the eye is a touch west, we’ll likely be in the RFQ. Fully expecting a Laura like event now, which is saying a lot. The eye keeps tightening on radar as it comes in, that RFQ is going to be insane coupled with the upper levels to help mix down big gusts + a quick forward speed. What did you gust to in Laura? I’d expect you get a few 120-130mph gusts there in Perry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 minute ago, BlueSkyGA said: I know most of you consider AccuWeather forecast to be trash. I checked the hourly forecast for Macon, Ga, where my niece lives, and it has gust reaching 60 or so in the am. When i check my location in Elberton,Ga, it has gust of 70-80 mph at times in the early am. I dont see how this can be? Macon is gonna be close. They’re quite a bit east of Atlanta but I wouldn’t be surprised at this stage if the system even went east of them. Athens and Augusta could be in for a world of hurt though 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Just now, TPAwx said: Just chatting with the fam about how lucky we were with this one. A few thuds on the roof so prob some damage, and waiting to see what the surge does later. I’m thinking the areas down near bayshore Blvd and of course Gulfport and the beaches are going to have one of their more notable surge events. naples had their biggest surge event in Ian, and the center passed just a bit closer by them and to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: Macon is gonna be close. They’re quite a bit east of Atlanta but I wouldn’t be surprised at this stage if the system even went east of them. Athens and Augusta could be in for a world of hurt though It’ll all come down to the vector once it crosses land. With how intense it’s getting, I’d lean NNE vs N or any tick W of due N. VLD might be ground zero. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 13 minutes ago, hlcater said: This is extremely important and worrying for surge. Massive hurricane force wind field combined with coastal geometry could easily yield 20+ft surge in spots. I understand the surge is going to be bad. But isn’t the speed a double edge sword. I mean it will not be prolonged winds and the winds should switch fairly quickly 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Waves are still updating It appears, nearing 25 feet! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 11 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: A friend of mine is on a spit of land near Clearwater called Dunedin Beach and he said it’s getting pretty intense. They are four stories up in a sturdy building and I’m sure they will be fine but this is when you start questioning if you should have stayed or not. This will be remembered for a long time. I have concern for everybody in a storm surge vulnerable location. I'm at 15 feet in Gulfport and getting a little concerned even this high. https://clearwaterbeachcams.com/ We are in for a very nasty surprise tonight in Pinellas County. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 26 Author Share Posted September 26 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: The eye keeps tightening on radar as it comes in, that RFQ is going to be insane coupled with the upper levels to help mix down big gusts + a quick forward speed. What did you gust to in Laura? I’d expect you get a few 120-130mph gusts there in Perry. Whatever Lake Charles got, we got lol. I ended up in the NE eyewall for hours. It was unreal. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 The east side of this storm is going to be catastrophic for a lot of people. Unbelievable intensification we are seeing 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Whatever Lake Charles got, we got lol. I ended up in the NE eyewall for hours. It was unreal. Insane chase there, Laura did not play games. Who knew they had hurricanes in Iowa? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Looks brutal in the Gulf! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 hour ago, bdgwx said: Based on the 5pm update Helene's IKE is near 100 TJ. Is there a source for this All time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Just updated satellite estimate, let's see how it matches up with next recon pass. Current Analysis ----- Date : 26 SEP 2024 Time : 221020 UTC Lat : 27:54:35 N Lon : 84:18:00 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 6.3 / 929.2mb/122.2kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 6.3 6.3 6.9 Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km Center Temp : +0.7C Cloud Region Temp : -73.3C Scene Type : EYE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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