Major Hurricane Helene

[DDweatherman]

This eastern eye wall is passing 80 miles from Tampa Bay. Talk about dodging a completely catastrophic event. The close calls can only go on for so long. 

[Allsnow]

This will forever change the big bend coast line 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

 

All of those were weakening on approach, except for Michael and Andrew.

[nycwinter]

clearly on the way to cat 4 status this was so predictable we seen this so many times lately as these storms are approaching the gulf coast

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

This eastern eye wall is passing 80 miles from Tampa Bay. Talk about dodging a completely catastrophic event. The close calls can only go on for so long. 

They should get some good surge.

[clskinsfan]

Jesus look at the NE quadrant fire up. Nasty MOFO. 

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL092024#homePageLink

[NorthHillsWx]

The Michael comparisons can continue. Extremely diffluent ventilation with the interaction with the trough to the north and east and movement in line with shear vector. This isn’t going to be far from Michael intensity wise in a few hours. Satellite presentations are almost identical at this stage before landfall. The dueling VHTs is a menacing look and absolutely causing these rapid pressure falls. Just wow. Those mesovortices are beautiful to watch on radar, though the destructive potential increases with every radar update 

[Doc Jon]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

That would be the RI going on.

[kat5hurricane]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hugo got a nice boost from the gulf stream on its way in, so it's similar with respect to the fact it was intensifying as well....it was a cat 2 after interaction with PR.

Yep, rode it right into the coast. Similarly scary situation unfolding now although in a mord sparsely populated area than Charleston with the core upon approach, hopefully.

[Master of Disaster]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

This has got to be a Cat 4 now.

Almost certainly is 

[MarkO]

Looking very impressive on satellite and symmetrical on radar. Eye seems to be clearing out.

[NorthHillsWx]

Recon more than justifies a cat 4 upgrade 

[wthrmn654]

My God, look at far east those crazy winds extend, not sure how much of that mixes down to  surface but I hope people run for there lives if they haven't yet! 

And to note, that is the buoy by the center, looks like it will go just east of it!

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, kat5hurricane said:

Yep, rode it right into the coast. Similarly scary situation unfolding now although in a mord sparsely populated area than Charleston with the core upon approach, hopefully.

Well, Mclellanville was fairly sparsely populated, too...Charleston was speared, relatively speaking....like Miami in Andrew.

[Doc Jon]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

This has got to be a Cat 4 now.

If it ain't now it will be shortly.

[Newman]

...HELENE NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...

6:20 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 Location: 28.0°N 84.5°W Moving: NNE at 23 mph Min pressure: 947 mb Max sustained: 130 mph

[Arnold214]

Always so fascinating to watch things unfold like this. I can see the low level strato cu near sfc level in the eye when zooming in now. Pressures continue to fall on my brother's Davis in Fort Myers even though the storm continues to move away.  

[George001]

Chances of category 5 at landfall?

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, Blizzard22 said:

The Weather Channel just showed up a map showing 75-90 mph wind gusts for Atlanta tomorrow morning.

Yeah I heard that.  Makes no sense as just an hour or two ago they showed 50 which to me makes most sense and that might not happen til 10-11Z when the W-NW sting jet gets them 

[nycwinter]

they updated it to 130 mph but it is intensifying as we speak..

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Yeah I heard that.  Makes no sense as just an hour or two ago they showed 50 which to me makes most sense and that might not happen til 10-11Z when the W-NW sting jet gets them 

Agree with this. Meanwhile someone from VLD-MCN is going to gust 100+ I’m starting to think. 

[NorthHillsWx]

3 minutes ago, George001 said:

Chances of category 5 at landfall?

Not 0…

[DDweatherman]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

Agree with this. Meanwhile someone from VLD-MCN is going to gust 100+ I’m starting to think. 

Note to add that once this gets into that part of Georgia and VLD northward, we start getting into some pretty densely populated areas (Warner Robbins, Macon, Albany, Athens) 

[Doc Jon]

4 minutes ago, George001 said:

Chances of category 5 at landfall?

Don't know if there's enough time over the water but anything's possible.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Basically the worst case scenario is unfolding and we still have a few more hours to go.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

Note to add that once this gets into that part of Georgia and VLD northward, we start getting into some pretty densely populated areas (Warner Robbins, Macon, Albany, Athens) 

Anything like that needs to be east of center 

[hlcater]

6 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

My God, look at far east those crazy winds extend, not sure how much of that mixes down to  surface but I hope people run for there lives if they haven't yet! 

And to note, that is the buoy by the center, looks like it will go just east of it!

This is extremely important and worrying for surge. Massive hurricane force wind field combined with coastal geometry could easily yield 20+ft surge in spots. 

[Diggiebot]

7 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

My God, look at far east those crazy winds extend, not sure how much of that mixes down to  surface but I hope people run for there lives if they haven't yet! 

And to note, that is the buoy by the center, looks like it will go just east of it!

This looks bad for Tampa bay even without the eye being very close. 

[NeonPeon]

Just now, TheDreamTraveler said:

Basically the worst case scenario is unfolding and we still have a few more hours to go.

It is the worst case scenario except for missing big population centers with the worst of it.

Not much help to the people who are in its path, of course, and there are still many.

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Anything like that needs to be east of center 

100%, question will be where does it go after LF which is our biggest question. We pretty much know VLD will be near the eastern eyewall, but will see straighten up and move more due N or hold that NNE heading. 
 

huge implications for the 75 corridor depending on that outcome.