Radtechwxman Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Will hurricane hunters be in there every hr now till landfall? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 5 pm NHC track looks like it was shifted east at landfall, would make a big difference for TLH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Yeah so Tallahassee went from "the black line is right over my head" to OUT OF THE CONE! Yeah, yeah, yeah, impacts will be still be great, but can we please have a post-storm discussion about wtf happened here? 1 1 11 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 28 minutes ago, jdt said: I assume that is at the Airport which is south of town. Asheville general has lower totals then surrounding areas do to mountains shadowing from multiple directions. We bought property to build on in the future about an hour south of there very close the the SC line and Blue Ridge Escarpment. Totals there can usually be double to triple that of Asheville. Saw a CoCoRaHS report posted earlier today of ~12” near Connesstee Falls which is about 10 minutes from our property. . Correct! Asheville is the driest part of the state. Just one county south receives the most annual rainfall on average. I referring to reporting stations 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 minute ago, Radtechwxman said: Will hurricane hunters be in there every hr now till landfall? The new recon plane is coming from Houston. It just passed the mouth of the Mississippi river. It should be in the eye in a couple hours. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 minute ago, beanskip said: Yeah so Tallahassee went from "the black line is right over my head" to OUT OF THE CONE! Yeah, yeah, yeah, impacts will be still be great, but can we please have a post-storm discussion about wtf happened here? What’s there to discuss? Storms track in the cone only 2/3 of the time. The NHC doesn’t hide that. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Based on the 5pm update Helene's IKE is near 100 TJ. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 2 minutes ago, beanskip said: Yeah so Tallahassee went from "the black line is right over my head" to OUT OF THE CONE! Yeah, yeah, yeah, impacts will be still be great, but can we please have a post-storm discussion about wtf happened here? TLH having it pass E won't be quite as beneficial as ATL having it pass E. The winds will still be real bad on that W side at landfall, now if it goes 30-40 miles E of TLH then maybe they get a big break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 3 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said: Will hurricane hunters be in there every hr now till landfall? Assuming the plane that's about to get there took off with a full tank of gas there's no reason to believe it will need to land before landfall. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Just now, NeffsvilleWx said: What’s there to discuss? Storms track in the cone only 2/3 of the time. The NHC doesn’t hide that. A LOT. The NHC ignored the global models ... then, for the last 24 hours, the hurricane models and went with spaghetti plots in the face of pretty good agreement from all the other models on planet earth. 2 6 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: TLH having it pass E won't be quite as beneficial as ATL having it pass E. The winds will still be real bad on that W side at landfall, now if it goes 30-40 miles E of TLH then maybe they get a big break Those winds die down REAL quick on the west side... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 If I heard right Helene is expected to be a Cat 2 near Albany, GA. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Gotta say I’m impressed with her. I had my doubts on category four earlier, but it looks like it’s gonna be a low end four at least anyways. Imagine if it started this process six hours earlier. 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 minute ago, beanskip said: A LOT. The NHC ignored the global models ... then, for the last 24 hours, the hurricane models and went with spaghetti plots in the face of pretty good agreement from all the other models on planet earth. Take this to banter or wait until after the storm has passed. 5 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Few things I noticed. Eyewall lightning continues signifying intensification not done. Also western part of storm looks rather dry but that's also far from radar so hard to say. Might be getting influenced more by trough. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 minute ago, cptcatz said: Those winds die down REAL quick on the west side... Yeah, this storm is pretty much all Eastside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 A Newly Released Image of Planet Earth Taken 30 Minutes Ago By the GOES-East Satellite. Helene can be seen 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 minute ago, beanskip said: A LOT. The NHC ignored the global models ... then, for the last 24 hours, the hurricane models and went with spaghetti plots in the face of pretty good agreement from all the other models on planet earth. I think the only mistake was the 11am issuance. They went W only to have to go back E again thereafter. Maybe holding it steady was right idea. I'd have played the split between the hurricane models and globals a bit more dead even than they did the last 2 days for sure 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard22 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: TLH having it pass E won't be quite as beneficial as ATL having it pass E. The winds will still be real bad on that W side at landfall, now if it goes 30-40 miles E of TLH then maybe they get a big break I am halfway between Tallahassee and Atlanta. Will winds still be bad on the west side here ? I'm due south of Atlanta and due north of Tallahassee. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaPilot Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Rad, Probably some attenuation going on there. Storm needs to get closer to the radar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 5 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Those winds die down REAL quick on the west side... That's old. They haven't hit the western side since before the 959 pass which was at 17:57Z, or, over 3 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Looks like from radar W eyewall may have opening up a bit, if only temporarily. That said satellite presentation continues to improve, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 33 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Seems reasonable now. 140-145 would not surprise me Is it true that to derive the actual wind speed, on the right side of the storm, you take the windspeed and add to it the forward speed of the hurricane movement So a hurricane with a windspeed of 130mph and a forward speed of 20mph would produce an effective wind velocity of 150mph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RamblinRed Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 28 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Does anyone have a good source showing the extension of the hurricane force and tropical storm force winds coverage? I want something I can share on social media. This is another good graphic from the NHC https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/154002.shtml?radii#contents 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 24 minutes ago, Hoth said: Siesta Key beach cam is pretty wild. Water over the whole beach and waves occasionally bumping the lifeguard stations. Glad my grandmother decided to take shelter inland. Low tide was over about a half hour ago and we have along ways to go to high tide after midnight. Already the water level is rising. Here in Gulfport we are used to seeing downtown flooded, but tonight could be the first time it will be too deep for people to wade in and around. It could be over everybody's heads in a few hours. I notice the cameras are slow to load and that is because so many people are watching them. But after a moment or so you can see a live stream: https://thegabber.com/gulfport-casino-web-cam/ 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Some spin ups just south and heading towards Tampa 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 2 minutes ago, Prospero said: Low tide was over about a half hour ago and we have along ways to go to high tide after midnight. Already the water level is rising. Here in Gulfport we are used to seeing downtown flooded, but tonight could be the first time it will be too deep for people to wade in and around. It could be over everybody's heads in a few hours. I notice the cameras are slow to load and that is because so many people are watching them. But after a moment or so you can see a live stream: https://thegabber.com/gulfport-casino-web-cam/ People leaving their cars to get bathed in salt water don’t seem so bright. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 28 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Seems reasonable now. 140-145 would not surprise me Yeah.. I was questioning my call of 150 MPH at LF I made yesterday or the day before. I think its a distinct possibility. Becoming almost likely at this point and that is just going to cause more problems inland as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Latest ADT satellite estimate shows 115knot max now which translates to 132mph 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 4 minutes ago, Hotair said: People leaving their cars to get bathed in salt water don’t seem so bright. Some may be trying to bank in on insurance fraud 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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