Major Hurricane Helene

[wthrmn654]

2 minutes ago, MarkO said:

Outflow more impressive on satellite. Unfortunately, the latest images I can find are about an hour old.

Kinda looks like an eye is trying to clear out now

[gymengineer]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Wow. That’s a 7mb drop between dropsondes.

NHC went with 959 mb at 3 pm to 951 mb at 4 pm (accounting for the 8-kt wind), so an even more impressive 8 mb drop in 1 hour in their Update Statements every hour.  

[Eskimo Joe]

6 minutes ago, MarkO said:

Outflow more impressive on satellite. Unfortunately, the latest images I can find are about an hour old.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-E_Gulf_Coast-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[MarkO]

A little newer i the NOAA site: 

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G16&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24&dim=1

[wthrmn654]

 

[beanskip]

16 minutes ago, beanskip said:

I agree -- not making enough eastward progress at the moment.

Well, upon further review, doing the math comparing 2 p.m. and 4 p.m. NHC statements, it moved .9 degrees north and .3 east. If that continued, it would cross 84W before landfall, which would be consistent with those 18z plots. 

[hlcater]

3 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

 

I don’t mean to rain on your parade but posting satellite and radar gifs every 15 min is unnecessary and clogs the thread seeing as we all have access to it.

[DeltaPilot]

CDO still looking like its struggling a bit. Doesnt have that symmetrical look quite yet, but it looks better than it has since early this am.

19 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

 

 

[wthrmn654]

20 minutes ago, hlcater said:

I don’t mean to rain on your parade but posting satellite and radar gifs every 15 min is unnecessary and clogs the thread seeing as we all have access to it.

OK , it was a couple of satellite views of different modes and it's not every 15 mintues.  

[MN Transplant]

24 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It has been quiet all day here in Perry. There has been plenty of heat and humidity but virtually no rain as everything has set up west of here.

 

I drove around a bit earlier and the roads have cleared out substantially as stores close and board up. I’m actually surprised that a lot of places haven’t boarded up. 

 

If the heading holds, we’re likely to get a big hit. Some of the damage from prior storms still remains. 

 

 

I’m cautiously optimistic about my spot. I’m in a good building with a number of reporters, chasers, and national guard. Of course a lot of locals are here too. 

This is by far the hardest part of a chase: the anxiety of watching every frame of the radar to make sure you’re in the right location. 

Will probably start my pressure trace in an hour or two if the storm heading holds. 

The Doppler on Wheels crew is at the Perry airport per their live webcast via the American Meteorological Society.  Sounds like they will redeploy at some point to hit the eye.

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

The Doppler on Wheels crew is at the Perry airport per their live webcast via the American Meteorological Society.  Sounds like they will redeploy at some point to hit the eye.

Nice. I love their work. Hopefully they don’t have to go far lol. 

[schoeppeya]

Eyewall complete close off and much more circular on radar, wouldnt be surprised to see another substantial drop in pressure when the new plane arrives

[KoalaBeer]

Zooming out and looking at the big picture is mesmerizing. Strongly recommend going to watch the loop and switching over to water vapor as well which highlights the interaction with the trough. Already hints of it getting “captured” which I think limits how far east this goes. Despite what others are saying I’ll stick with the NHC. 
 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=us&product=wv_mid

[donsutherland1]

From the NWS Greeville-Spartanburg Facebook Page:

Already, as of 4:07 pm EDT, Asheville has picked up 4.44" of rain today. That breaks the daily mark of 1.71" from 1956 and the all-time September daily record of 4.40" from September 29, 1964. The 2-day total of 8.53" breaks both the 2- and 3-day rainfall records.

 

[salbers]

I like to see the satellite animations alternating with the text - fyi.

[DDweatherman]

Starting to think based on some obs and radar this actually could go west of Perry unless we get some NNE-erly jog late on the approach. Could it come in around St Marks? Somewhere between the two seems feasible.  

[Radtechwxman]

Closed off eyewall now could be troubling. May really allow Helene to fully take off till LF

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, KoalaBeer said:

Zooming out and looking at the big picture is mesmerizing. Strongly recommend going to watch the loop and switching over to water vapor as well which highlights the interaction with the trough. Already hints of it getting “captured” which I think limits how far east this goes. Despite what others are saying I’ll stick with the NHC. 
 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=us&product=wv_mid

I just think its unlikely in 2024 the high res models would miss that degree of a capture this close in and now that its going to become a 4 I think it'll make it even harder for it to get pulled W of N til its well into GA though it might move 360-010 after landfall.  I'd feel confident now saying it will pass E of ATL, would not put a mileage on it but would say at least 30.  Ultimately not a massive error on the current track, it just seems big because it would make a huge difference in a big city.

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

Starting to think based on some obs and radar this actually could go west of Perry unless we get some NNE-erly jog late on the approach. Could it come in around St Marks? Somewhere between the two seems feasible.  

St Marks was my guess an hour ago.  I'd be surprised if it did NOT go west of Perry, again, sometimes these love making right wobbles in the final hour before making landfall though

[olafminesaw]

5 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said:

Zooming out and looking at the big picture is mesmerizing. Strongly recommend going to watch the loop and switching over to water vapor as well which highlights the interaction with the trough. Already hints of it getting “captured” which I think limits how far east this goes. Despite what others are saying I’ll stick with the NHC. 
 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=us&product=wv_mid

Storm of the Century vibes

[dan11295]

Latest IR showing deep convection surrounding the core and the storm becoming more symmetrical. Implies Helene is continining to strengthen

[DDweatherman]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I just think its unlikely in 2024 the high res models would miss that degree of a capture this close in and now that its going to become a 4 I think it'll make it even harder for it to get pulled W of N til its well into GA though it might move 360-010 after landfall.  I'd feel confident now saying it will pass E of ATL, would not put a mileage on it but would say at least 30.  Ultimately not a massive error on the current track, it just seems big because it would make a huge difference in a big city.

Agree that the stronger she gets the more unlikely it would get tugged NW until the pressures came up a bit (ie the hi-res depictions of a certain threshold) 

[wthrmn654]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

St Marks was my guess an hour ago.  I'd be surprised if it did NOT go west of Perry, again, sometimes these love making right wobbles in the final hour before making landfall though

 

3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Starting to think based on some obs and radar this actually could go west of Perry unless we get some NNE-erly jog late on the approach. Could it come in around St Marks? Somewhere between the two seems feasible.  

I was going say looking at the recon positions of the center and the noaa buoys to the north if would seem instead of going to the right of the buoy is going be going to the left of it instead.  But as goose pointed out wobbles and such could make it an unknown variable

[schoeppeya]

Eye is about to clear. Would imagine recon is going to find pressure significantly lower

[TPAwx]

31 minutes ago, Prospero said:

I have no doubts we will be breaking records tonight with the surge. I've been through enough here to recognize the signs. Downtown Gulfport and areas of Tampa Bay will be inundated beyond what we have seen before. Hopefully our cameras will stay up as long as possible. They stayed up in Idalia and Debbie even when water was inside the locations. But the winds were not that strong and electricity and internet stayed on. Tonight both could go down early.

Our home is at 15ft so we should be OK for this one. There has not been a 15ft storm surge in our area in modern history. But it is always possible...

Debris is already falling into our yard. Hold on! Woohooo! We gotta storm!

Be safe.  Just back from a peek at Bayshore Blvd.  White caps overtopping seawall.  Long way to go with surge.  Oak outside my office window swaying precariously.

[WxWatcher007]

6 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Starting to think based on some obs and radar this actually could go west of Perry unless we get some NNE-erly jog late on the approach. Could it come in around St Marks? Somewhere between the two seems feasible.  

 

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

St Marks was my guess an hour ago.  I'd be surprised if it did NOT go west of Perry, again, sometimes these love making right wobbles in the final hour before making landfall though

I’m thinking the same—somewhere in the western part of the county. Of course that puts much of the county right in the RFQ, which could be high end if intensification continues through landfall ~6 hours from now. 

[KoalaBeer]

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I just think its unlikely in 2024 the high res models would miss that degree of a capture this close in and now that its going to become a 4 I think it'll make it even harder for it to get pulled W of N til its well into GA though it might move 360-010 after landfall.  I'd feel confident now saying it will pass E of ATL, would not put a mileage on it but would say at least 30.  Ultimately not a massive error on the current track, it just seems big because it would make a huge difference in a big city.

Agreed. I guess that why I put capture in parentheses. I think the interaction will pull it more northward then some of the eastward solutions being thrown out there is all I’m saying. I like the St Marks call for landfall as a low end Cat 4. I certainly wouldn’t let my guard down in places like TLH. 

[SnowGoose69]

6 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Agree that the stronger she gets the more unlikely it would get tugged NW until the pressures came up a bit (ie the hi-res depictions of a certain threshold) 

The 3k NAM has been showing for a couple of days once the pressure goes above 968 or so is when the NW tug begins.  Its not anything highly scientific but it probably does indicate that if this goes into the 930s given how fast its moving it might end up much further E over GA.

[jdt]

From the NWS Greeville-Spartanburg Facebook Page:

Already, as of 4:07 pm EDT, Asheville has picked up 4.44" of rain today. That breaks the daily mark of 1.71" from 1956 and the all-time September daily record of 4.40" from September 29, 1964. The 2-day total of 8.53" breaks both the 2- and 3-day rainfall records.
 

I assume that is at the Airport which is south of town. Asheville general has lower totals then surrounding areas do to mountains shadowing from multiple directions. We bought property to build on in the future about an hour south of there very close the the SC line and Blue Ridge Escarpment. Totals there can usually be double to triple that of Asheville. Saw a CoCoRaHS report posted earlier today of ~12” near Connesstee Falls which is about 10 minutes from our property.


.

[hlcater]

Numerous mesovorts with a pentagonal eyewall on Tampa bay radar now. In the past these pentagonal eyes have been harbingers of RI. May be something to watch for as we close in on landfall