NorthHillsWx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Check out the mesovortices rotating around that eyewall. IMO there isn’t a more telling sign of a storm going nuclear than seeing that. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Cat 3... Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 300 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 ...STORM SURGE AND WINDS INCREASING ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST... ...300 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE... A Weatherflow station at Egmont Channel at the entrance to Tampa Bay recently measured a sustained wind of 50 mph (80 km/h) and a gust to 62 mph (100 km/h). SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.9N 84.8W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Saving grace is that it will be coming ashore to the west of one of the least populated coastlines in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Just now, dseagull said: Saving grace is that it will be coming ashore to the west of one of the least populated coastlines in the region. Yea basically just swamps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I heard that too. Just not a big fan of extrapolation determining the winds without the help of other tools. This may also go towards what you guys were saying.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Curious, just was looking at total precipitatable water, that less colored spiral getting wrapped around the western flank, is that anything that would affect weakening/ strengthening at this point? EDIT: just noticed time stamp is a few hours old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tallis Rockwell Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 You'd figure that after beasts like Ian and Michael, we'd learn not to hasten to calling busts in these situations but here we are... 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Just now, Allsnow said: https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1839377236895711415 A win for the globals here. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Just now, Tallis Rockwell said: You'd figure that after beasts like Ian and Michael, we'd learn not to hasten to calling busts in these situations but here we are... And to my unscientific eye...with the tendency over the last several years for hurricanes to intensify right into landfall is enough not to discount it. It's actually amazing how that seems to be a predictable occurrence these days! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 minute ago, Tallis Rockwell said: You'd figure that after beasts like Ian and Michael, we'd learn not to hasten to calling busts in these situations but here we are... First off, this isn't even close to those. Secondly, who said bust? Describing the storm issues and why it's struggling is different than saying "This storm won't do shit, Mets and models all suck, what a bust!" 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 26 Author Share Posted September 26 This is pre NHC update, but eastern areas are in line to get hit really hard. Keep in mind though that the hurricane intensity models make the wind field more symmetrical upon landfall. West of eyewall is likely to get hit hard too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: This is crazy to read.. https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1839376026646036560 I saw that. It's not hype. 6 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 4 minutes ago, jburns said: Another thing to consider whatever the wind speed. It has been my experience, and I have been in a few hurricanes, that there is a large difference between a land falling hurricane that is weakening and one that is strengthening. It is hard to explain but a strengthening cane seems more violent. The wind ratchets up and down rapidly with higher gusts. A weakening cane the wind seems more steady. While there are still gusts they seem to increase more gradually instead of suddenly slamming you without warning. Just my experience, I am certainly not a met. After Katrina fit South Florida as a strengthening Cat 1 and did a lot of damage JB wrote that a strengthening Cat 1 storm can cause more damage than a weakening Cat 3 storm. He mentioned mixing of upper air winds down to the surface. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Just now, CoastalWx said: A win for the globals here. Of more shock, if this gets to as strong as several of the hurricane models had showed days ago, and we all were saying there not very good until the system is somewhat more organized, that's impressive for a system that hadn't even gotten a name let alone is core well defined / formed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 . . . ...CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS FROM HURRICANE HELENE... This will be one of the most significant weather events to happen in the western portions of the area in the modern era. Record flooding is forecasted and has been compared to the floods of 1916 in the Asheville area. The impacts from this event are expected to be greater than Tropical Storm Fred from August 2021, the mountains in 2004 from Frances and Ivan, and in Upstate South Carolina the Saluda River Basin flooding from 1949. We plead with everyone that you take every single weather warning very seriously through the entirety of this event as impacts will be life- threatening and make sure to have multiple ways to receive the alerts. The protection of life and property is the overall mission of the National Weather Service, and we pledge to stand by the folks of the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia. We cannot stress the significance of this event enough. Heed all evacuation orders from your local Emergency Managers and go to a storm shelter if you do not feel safe at your current location. Landslides, including fast-moving debris flows consisting of water, mud, falling rocks, trees, and other large debris, are most likely within small valleys that drain steep slopes. Landslides are powerful and potentially deadly, capable of washing out roads, bridges, and homes. People living in areas prone to landslides should be aware of the danger and 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1839377236895711415 Needless to say, game-changing development for Tallahassee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Eyewall is starting to look “bumpy” on radar. Plenty of mesovorts starting to emerge, Helene is really tightening up the core now 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 26 Author Share Posted September 26 Venice gusting to 55mph. Tampa just short of TS force gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Venice gusting to 55mph. Tampa just short of TS force gusts. I think they are in for issues with surge. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 That band off Tampa looks ripe for spouts and when onshore, tornadoes. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I saw that. It's not hype. No it's definitely not hype at all here in WNC. We have families moving away from the rivers tonight and we are really worried about the saturated grounds and 60mph wind gusts. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 I think the loop current and the positive trough interaction are doing their thing. Helene continues to organize with a better looking CDO, more defined core and eye popping. I think there's a decent shot we get a cat 4 landfall. Maybe even mid cat 4. But 130 I think is very achievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 9 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said: Eyewall is starting to look “bumpy” on radar. Plenty of mesovorts starting to emerge, Helene is really tightening up the core now Pressure is going to bottom out as those get ingested while the eyewall contracts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 26 Author Share Posted September 26 2 minutes ago, Met1985 said: No it's definitely not hype at all here in WNC. We have families moving away from the rivers tonight and we are really worried about the saturated grounds and 60mph wind gusts. Good luck up there. Stay safe. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Venice gusting to 55mph. Tampa just short of TS force gusts. May top out at 60-65 in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 16 minutes ago, Allsnow said: NHC might be committed now. Not sure they're gonna make any E moves now, they've sort of layed out the reasoning and might go down with the ship somewhat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 3 minutes ago, Met1985 said: No it's definitely not hype at all here in WNC. We have families moving away from the rivers tonight and we are really worried about the saturated grounds and 60mph wind gusts. Yeah good luck up that way. Stay safe. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Has this GRAF model proved accurate previously ? My kids are in Gainesville and this would be catastrophic for the area there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Good luck up there. Stay safe. Thank you. We will definitely be on edge tonight through tomorrow. We have already seen a lot of flooding in various communities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now