SnowGoose69 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Based on current radar of center I'd lean it does come in E of TLH but a few wobbles will change that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 There is enough time to reach cat-4, I don't think cat-5 was ever a strong option. I will say cat-4 by 21z and either cat-4 to landfall or just back to top end cat-3 at landfall which I currently think will be 03z near St marks NWR to western Taylor co. Track will place western eyewall over TLH around 05z and very close to stormtracker's proposed location 09z and near or just east of ATL by 12-15z Friday. For a min pressure will go with 947 just before landfall. (935 is probably limit for min SLP) 40/70 I wanted to read your assessment but link was broken when I tried, this is perhaps why a post was deleted? Is my guess above close to yours? If not are you less intense and further east? That was my feeling as to bust direction, not stronger and not west of Carrabelle for landfall. Still 30% prob direct hit TLH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 115 Knot FL last pass, 956.6 HPA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks like my forecast got deleted, so here is just the link since mods must be anal. Sorry, billion things at once. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/09/intensifying-hurricane-helenes.html 3 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: There is enough time to reach cat-4, I don't think cat-5 was ever a strong option. I will say cat-4 by 21z and either cat-4 to landfall or just back to top end cat-3 at landfall which I currently think will be 03z near St marks NWR to western Taylor co. Track will place western eyewall over TLH around 05z and very close to stormtracker's proposed location 09z and near or just east of ATL by 12-15z Friday. For a min pressure will go with 947 just before landfall. (935 is probably limit for min SLP) 40/70 I wanted to read your assessment but link was broken when I tried, this is perhaps why a post was deleted? Is my guess above close to yours? If not are you less intense and further east? That was my feeling as to bust direction, not stronger and not west of Carrabelle for landfall. Still 30% prob direct hit TLH. Try it now... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 16 foot waves already 129NM north at buoy closest to Helene. Pressure already down to 29.40 Current photo of the angry Gulf Link for anyone who wants to track https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42036 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 10 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: 115 Knot FL last pass, 956.6 HPA FL reduction would support a cat 3 upgrade. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 39 minutes ago, Hotair said: I believe that someone has his greater than or equal arrows pointed in the wrong direction. It translates to less than or equal to 105 mph and MSLP less than or equal to 960 hPa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Just now, CTWeatherFreak said: Its not a 'bust' like some of the worst NE snowstorm busts.. . Its just a bust as to the hype about RI which was supposed to have occurred as soon as it hit the loop current, and It still may get to cat 4 but it seems unlikely. Disagree. We still got 8-ish hours until landfalls and it's already at 95-100 knots. I wouldn't call 115 knots unlikely. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Ya'll take the bust discussion to the banter thread. This storm is doing exactly what it was forecasted to do. 15 6 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 32 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: FYI, if you see a rainfall graphic depicting 15" - 30" of rain forecast by the NWS in the hill county of South Carolina, it is made in error and not valid. They have since updated the infographic. I will pass that along. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND HELENE A MAJOR HURRICANE... The Air Force Hurricane Hunters found that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h). This makes Helene a dangerous category 3 major hurricane. Additional strengthening is expected before Helene makes landfall in the Florida Big Bend this evening. SUMMARY OF 225 PM EDT...1825 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.7N 84.9W ABOUT 170 MI...280 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Last thing for a while but, best visual comparison... look at how big that blue wind field line is jeez! https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inundationdb/?sw=17.49739,-89.05518&ne=34.02535,-78.28857&layers=111111111000 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 minute ago, MattPetrulli said: ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND HELENE A MAJOR HURRICANE... The Air Force Hurricane Hunters found that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h). This makes Helene a dangerous category 3 major hurricane. Additional strengthening is expected before Helene makes landfall in the Florida Big Bend this evening. SUMMARY OF 225 PM EDT...1825 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.7N 84.9W ABOUT 170 MI...280 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES Bombs away. Once those hot towers got wrapped around we are picking up in intensity quickly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Cat 3 120 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Already 12-16 inches of rain 1 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Is the upgrade based on FL winds? Would be nice to get some reports from the surface. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 cat 4 is very douable the only question will it be a low end or high end cat 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Getting that classic look on radar. Banding is incredibly impressive 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Based on the latest update I calculate an IKE of 104 TJ. Helene is going to generate a substantial surge. 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Things are going to be really dicey it seems for Valdosta if current trends continue. They might be in the eyewall later this evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 In Other bad news, this system strengthened early enough to work on maxing out the surge. Get the F away from the coast in the big bend. Hope everyone heeds that. Thankfully it’s not super populated but there’s going to be surge the likes of which that part of the coast has never seen before 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 26 Author Share Posted September 26 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Is the upgrade based on FL winds? Would be nice to get some reports from the surface. I read somewhere earlier this season that the NHC was reviewing the SFMR generally because of measurement issues. I’ll see if I can find where that came from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 That forward motion is a good thing, 16 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: In Other bad news, this system strengthened early enough to work on maxing out the surge. Get the F away from the coast in the big bend. Hope everyone heeds that. Thankfully it’s not super populated but there’s going to be surge the likes of which that part of the coast has never seen before This. Storm will smash surge records for the region and it’s going to be absolutely cranking when it comes ashore. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 2 minutes ago, Jebman said: That forward motion is a good thing, 16 mph. Going to help the wind damage impacts penetrate further inland though.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I read somewhere earlier this season that the NHC was reviewing the SFMR generally because of measurement issues. I’ll see if I can find where that came from. I heard that too. Just not a big fan of extrapolation determining the winds without the help of other tools. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: In Other bad news, this system strengthened early enough to work on maxing out the surge. Get the F away from the coast in the big bend. Hope everyone heeds that. Thankfully it’s not super populated but there’s going to be surge the likes of which that part of the coast has never seen before Another thing to consider whatever the wind speed. It has been my experience, and I have been in a few hurricanes, that there is a large difference between a land falling hurricane that is weakening and one that is strengthening. It is hard to explain but a strengthening cane seems more violent. The wind ratchets up and down rapidly with higher gusts. A weakening cane the wind seems more steady. While there are still gusts they seem to increase more gradually instead of suddenly slamming you without warning. Just my experience, I am certainly not a met. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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