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Major Hurricane Helene


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13 minutes ago, Normandy said:

Most folks In this thread lack patience and seek LOLs.  Now time for Helene to put on a show 

It's never really hanging on to a stable core structure though. It never has loci of intense convection, just the one, and it hasn't had a stable symmetrical eye either. It keeps looking like it's going to, but can't quite clear itself out.

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4 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

I mean 105 to 125 in 8-12 hours is certainly not as big a hurdle as y'all make it sound. Not to say it's going to happen. But the bottom line is a major hurricanes is likely at landfall which is not going to have a much different impact than a low end cat 4

Exactly what I have been trying to say, it clears out an eye and we get a 15-20 millibar drop in pressure fairly quickly and its basically right track with where its forecast to end up. There is still more than enough time for that to happen

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4 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

It's never really hanging on to a stable core structure though. It never has loci of intense convection, just the one, and it hasn't had a stable symmetrical eye either. It keeps looking like it's going to, but can't quite clear itself out.

I dont disagree, but the structure has been continuously improving, just slowly. Until the structure shows an obvious degradation I still think a period of more rapid intensification is on the table. 

 

ETA: Maybe with towers going up on both sides of the eye now we see more sustained eyewall convection

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26 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

I have never seen a 20-30” official forecast. And honestly wouldn’t be surprised if some places surpass that. Incredible. Even if the worst case doesn’t pan out, which it hopefully won’t, this one will be historic in its own right. 

 

IMG_6638.png

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5 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

It's never really hanging on to a stable core structure though. It never has loci of intense convection, just the one, and it hasn't had a stable symmetrical eye either. It keeps looking like it's going to, but can't quite clear itself out.

Because it’s structurally never been that kind of storm.  This has been a giant gyre based system that organized via curved bands and multiple rotating convective bursts.  Every storm doesn’t take the CDO path with the eye popping out.  It’s not even physically possible with a core this size (the eye is 55 miles wide for example) 

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Some on here are just not in touch with reality. Everything about this storm is on track. It has been steadily organizing. Pressure has been falling, it’s eliminated that outer wind maxima and winds are responding to pressure falls. This thing has more than enough time to reach major status and I still think 110-115 kts is going to be LF intensity. These giant storms never intensify that crazy fast but it’s doing exactly like you’d expect one to do. Lots of lightning in eyewall and I expect wind to increase 5-10 kts every 6 hours until it’s on shore 

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5 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

To be clear, I didn’t say that it hasn’t happened… I personally hadn’t seen official forecasts in my memory. That’s all…

Fair enough. It’s not super uncommon with these high end systems. Florence is another one that comes to mind that dropped a fairly widespread 20-30+ inches. 

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12 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The HMON is the only cane model on tidbits showing any semblance of a N or NNW track over GA and its still 70 miles E of the NHC track

Hmon has been consistent with the landfall intensity, and it might end up being fairly accurate.

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Last night, was  saying if nothing changed by 8 am, it would be doubtful for big end storm.  

Recon showing such large area on the eastern side especially 64 knots or even higher

image.thumb.png.5a28e6638fd87e3f0ee0cb7eebe2067a.png

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09L-2DWIND.GIF

 

 

That's not the case, she's playing out as models have been hinting,  the wind field is ridiculously big,  in fact, for comparison, looking at some stats,  sandy in 2012 had tropical storm form winds 943 miles wide!.. which is the record holder on the Atlantic side. 

 

Helene is about 500ish miles wide, I heard recently but can't confirm. 

Large storms cause large issues. Fresh water flooding, wind and big storm surge.  It's coming so buckle down and stay safe those in the Gulf right now! 

 

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37 minutes ago, Normandy said:

Because it’s structurally never been that kind of storm.  This has been a giant gyre based system that organized via curved bands and multiple rotating convective bursts.  Every storm doesn’t take the CDO path with the eye popping out.  It’s not even physically possible with a core this size (the eye is 55 miles wide for example) 

I don't really know what this means. I wasn't anticipating it having a giant CDO and then popping an eye. I definitely also wasn't expecting it to ingest as much dry air as it did, as dry air wasn't forecast to be an issue, or rather it was explicitly discussed as not being an issue. Given the combination of the system being so massive, and the dry air it ingested, it's organized itself quite rapidly, but it also left the cancun area in a sorry state and its core open. It also has thus far taken the RI off the table that was so strongly indicated. It may be getting its act together now, and its definitely steadily strengthening, but it still has the look of being lopsided.

Some of the other large atlantic hurricanes in my memory solved the problem by having a really large clear eye at a similar stage in development. This has threatened to do that but hasn't really ever cleared it out and has wobbled.

The uncertainty of RI is exactly why I'm imagining there is so much attention on it. That and its increased frequency due to climate change. It's why I find watching hurricanes so fascinating as they are at once incredibly fragile and incredibly strong.

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As it stands right now, based on the Forcast track, she's going be passing closely 2 buoys out of service in gulf, and since track shifted right,  only 1 other station active in the Gulf well be nearby her.  If she shifts west, there's able 4 buoys that we can use but it's quite offshore.  There's 1 or 2 buoys/ stations at shore that are also or of order.  Hopefully there's some noaa/nws stations near the shore that can give us some good pressure/ wind readings. 

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