CTWeatherFreak Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Because of the way the atmosphere works. You can be off just slightly, and the whole forecast goes to shit. Models off by even 10% RH in a large depth of the column are possible for sure. And then there goes the forecast. And the hip is connected to the thigh bone; and so it goes. Being from the nonrtheast, Ive experienced enough busts so I shouldnt be surprised.. Tough to get the Big One to come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Satellite has been improving with VHTs firing in right quad along with CDO ballooning and cooling 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erbsonci Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 9 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said: Loop current temps were around 87 degrees.. I wouldnt call that an inhibiting factor. Yes, but (and this is not to argue, only learn)...compare a late-August storm before daytime highs, humidity, and general Gulf temps have broken to a late-Sept which was not as well-formed. Wouldn't those be the major differences in how this ended up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 26 Author Share Posted September 26 31 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: But drowning shots make big money. My wife prefers I come home. I prefer wind. 16 minutes ago, erbsonci said: If you don't mind me asking, do you do something related to storms? Like, why are you in Perry? Storm chasing. I’ve documented a variety of hurricanes/blizzards/severe around the country (and Canada once) for almost a decade now. Usually my stuff gets picked up by outlets but for tropical, my chief passion, I love to forecast, document, and measure the impact of hurricanes. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 2 minutes ago, erbsonci said: Yes, but (and this is not to argue, only learn)...compare a late-August storm before daytime highs, humidity, and general Gulf temps have broken to a late-Sept which was not as well-formed. Wouldn't those be the major differences in how this ended up? hurricane michael became a cat 5 as it approached the coast in mid october...so that throws your gulf temps cooling out the window.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I get his point, though...everyone should have prepared for 15'+ of surge. How far inland would a 15’ surge go before it dissipated to less than 1 foot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 7 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: This is something that Eric Webb brought up the past few days before Helene took off. I see some elements from the WSW drifting toward Helene on the mid-level WV that are originating from John's outflow to the southwest that could be affecting things. Mostly internal factors, but i think there could be something there. This is shear that's underneath the outflow layer. I was wondering as well. John virtually stalled and outflow sort of channeling towards Helene. Might be keeping the mid level dryness hanging around to the SW of Helene a bit longer than it looked two days ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said: How far inland would a 15’ surge go before it dissipated to less than 1 foot? Looking at Google Earth, possibly 10-15 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Historic! 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: How far inland would a 15’ surge go before it dissipated to less than 1 foot? These are inundation maps based on different hurricane categories. It depends on a lot of factors like the topography of land that the water is trying to flow over. https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/203f772571cb48b1b8b50fdcc3272e2c/page/Category-4/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Towers going up in the SE Quadrant, might see some more symmetry here and begin to see a pressure drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 minute ago, franklin NCwx said: Historic! I have never seen a 20-30” official forecast. And honestly wouldn’t be surprised if some places surpass that. Incredible. Even if the worst case doesn’t pan out, which it hopefully won’t, this one will be historic in its own right. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 HAFS-B first 12z in nearly same LF point as 06z but slower, close to NHC LF point 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 10 minutes ago, CTWeatherFreak said: And the hip is connected to the thigh bone; and so it goes. Being from the nonrtheast, Ive experienced enough busts so I shouldnt be surprised.. Tough to get the Big One to come to fruition. I think it’s too early to say “bust” and with intensity forecast I’m not sure what would qualify. Would 115-120mph instead of 130 count as bust? The rain forecast looks perfectly on track so I see no bust there. Surge is also dependent on several different factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 minute ago, BoulderWX said: I have never seen a 20-30” official forecast. And honestly wouldn’t be surprised if some places surpass that. Incredible. Even if the worst case doesn’t pan out, which it hopefully won’t, this one will be historic in its own right. I believe there were forecasts that high in Texas associated with Hurricane Harvey. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Just now, BoulderWX said: I have never seen a 20-30” official forecast. And honestly wouldn’t be surprised if some places surpass that. Incredible. Even if the worst case doesn’t pan out, which it hopefully won’t, this one will be historic in its own right. Deep fast tropical feed from the E/SE upsloping several thousand feet in those mountains. It’ll be bad for sure and for some favored places to rain in that situation, horrendously bad. As others mentioned already over 6” rain in spots. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 I'd say vis and IR looking markedly better last hour. She's getting her act together imo. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 From Michael Fischer 8 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'd say vis and IR looking markedly better last hour. She's getting her act together imo. Finally stopped puking out outflow boundaries. Looks much better right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 im a big fan of the hafs modeling project in general, but man these runs of going back and forth between intense hurricane and weak to moderate hurricane are a bit much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 7 minutes ago, BoulderWX said: I have never seen a 20-30” official forecast. And honestly wouldn’t be surprised if some places surpass that. Incredible. Even if the worst case doesn’t pan out, which it hopefully won’t, this one will be historic in its own right. Me either. It's been pouring here for the past 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 5 minutes ago, USCG RS said: From Michael Fischer Luckily it only has until 10 or 11pm tops before it gets on land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 3 minutes ago, Amped said: Luckily it only has until 10 or 11pm tops before it gets on land. But it doesn’t need much time at all to really bomb from here if everything’s finally figured out. And if anything it might be bad timing since there isn’t time for an EWRC to get underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 23 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Historic! Can you link this? I can't find that exact image and I would like to send it to some peeople. Thanks. Edit: Nvm. Finally found it. Thanks though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Just now, jm1220 said: But it doesn’t need much time at all to really bomb from here if everything’s finally figured out. And if anything it might be bad timing since there isn’t time for an EWRC to get underway. Remember though, Michael had zero fall troughs in the southern U.S. until mid-October, and that water was primed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erbsonci Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 https://baynews9.com/fl/tampa/weather/bay-news-9-cameras Lots of Greater Tampa Bay and Central Florida webcams at this link. They're giving like snapshot feeds, I think. Madeira Beach in Pinellas, the water is up to the dune line, covering what is normally beach. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 I mean 105 to 125 in 8-12 hours is certainly not as big a hurdle as y'all make it sound. Not to say it's going to happen. But the bottom line is a major hurricanes is likely at landfall which is not going to have a much different impact than a low end cat 4 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 9 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: im a big fan of the hafs modeling project in general, but man these runs of going back and forth between intense hurricane and weak to moderate hurricane are a bit much. Those HAFS/HWRF/HMON I notice too are not capturing the 10m winds inland. My experience has been the HRRR max 10m wind product verifies well with these inland once inside 8 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Dual rotating VHTs on each side now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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