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Major Hurricane Helene


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28 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

It's not often you see a Tropical Storm Warning in Asheville, NC. They're currently under a flood warning at the moment around Gatlinburg anyways, I cannot imagine how bad things are going to get when this roars through. 

This storm has quite an extensive PRE. The center is still West of Naples but the rainfall is already pushing into Kentucky and West Virginia. Fresh water flooding will be a huge deal on top of the wind and immediate coastal impacts.

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7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

What do you mean? Are the grids not matching up the warning text?

I think things line up correctly with their overall track; just can't recall the PTC NWS office ever breaking things down on a county by county basis in this manner before. They are doing a good job of indicating the vast differences just 20-30 miles can make on intensity of the winds.

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11 minutes ago, Blizzard22 said:

Is anyone surprised they shifted the track a little west ?

 

7 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

It's shifted east 15-20 miles...

O2gxZFC.png

At the landfall point it’s a touch west of the 5am advisory but still east of the 11pm advisory. We shall see…this is a nowcast at this point. 

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17 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

This storm has quite an extensive PRE. The center is still West of Naples but the rainfall is already pushing into Kentucky and West Virginia. Fresh water flooding will be a huge deal on top of the wind and immediate coastal impacts.

I really wouldn't say the rain in GA and KY, or most of the SE are part of the hurricane directly... 

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To me on the water vapour loop it looks like there's still some dry air wrapping into the southern part of the storm from the west/south. Not sure it'll have enough time to fully clear that out and ramp up to forecast intensity before landfall.

We'll see if the latest burst of convection on the north side of the storm can fully wrap around the centre, then we might have a bit more to work with before landfall.

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3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Much of Helene's issues seem internal to me. I guess there could be some poorly analyzed from Hurricane John undercutting it, but i think that's less likely. 

Cat 3 at landfall is definitely noteworthy but hopefully not catastrophic, so impact would be Idalia-like and in the same general area. Maybe somewhat more severe given the larger size. The inland impacts might be more spoken about in the end especially flood impact. I think it may be running out of time to really resolve these issues and make a run at Cat 4. 

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25 minutes ago, Thrasher Fan said:

I think things line up correctly with their overall track; just can't recall the PTC NWS office ever breaking things down on a county by county basis in this manner before. They are doing a good job of indicating the vast differences just 20-30 miles can make on intensity of the winds.

Ah gotcha. 

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I feel like people forget that Helene will still be a strong storm just due to its monster size. Hurricane Ike looked like was a lot 'weaker' when it made landfall but it caused much more damage just due to its huge size compared to a smaller storm of its strength. Helene will be more destructive than a typical smaller hurricane at this category. Just because the wind speeds aren't super high the low pressure and large size/wind field are going to cause much more damage. I feel like people focus way too much on the max wind speed and what category the storm is when there's more that factor into its power and damage overall.

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5 minutes ago, konksw said:

The haranguing about the exact landfall point feels like missing the forest for the trees with regards to the ultimate worst impacts of this very large storm. 

To a point...but I would argue that its pretty crucial given how lopsided the system will be in its impact. It will somewhat analagous to northeast storms in that respect.

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Decided to hang in Perry for now but will reassess a little later when I have a better long term motion of the eye. For now, a bit far but obviously getting closer. 

2afCx4b.png

Activity has definitely picked up around here as Helene approaches. Stay safe everyone in the path. 

f2isO2u.jpeg

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Decided to hang in Perry for now but will reassess a little later when I have a better long term motion of the eye. For now, a bit far but obviously getting closer. 

2afCx4b.png

Activity has definitely picked up around here as Helene approaches. Stay safe everyone in the path. 

f2isO2u.jpeg

Stay there.

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