Blizzard22 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 minute ago, RU848789 said: It's shifted east 15-20 miles... No its clearly shifted west. They did have it going just east of Atlanta and now it looks like it's going over Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 18 minutes ago, wncsnow said: ICON is way east That track would be bad news for the East Bay of Tampa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 minute ago, Blizzard22 said: No its clearly shifted west. They did have it going just east of Atlanta and now it looks like it's going over Atlanta. I'm talking about landfall, which the vast majority are most interested in. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 28 minutes ago, nwohweather said: It's not often you see a Tropical Storm Warning in Asheville, NC. They're currently under a flood warning at the moment around Gatlinburg anyways, I cannot imagine how bad things are going to get when this roars through. This storm has quite an extensive PRE. The center is still West of Naples but the rainfall is already pushing into Kentucky and West Virginia. Fresh water flooding will be a huge deal on top of the wind and immediate coastal impacts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: What do you mean? Are the grids not matching up the warning text? I think things line up correctly with their overall track; just can't recall the PTC NWS office ever breaking things down on a county by county basis in this manner before. They are doing a good job of indicating the vast differences just 20-30 miles can make on intensity of the winds. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 26 Author Share Posted September 26 11 minutes ago, Blizzard22 said: Is anyone surprised they shifted the track a little west ? 7 minutes ago, RU848789 said: It's shifted east 15-20 miles... At the landfall point it’s a touch west of the 5am advisory but still east of the 11pm advisory. We shall see…this is a nowcast at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Looking at latest visible satellite, looks like it’s really getting ready to take off 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 minute ago, weatherCCB said: Looking at latest visible satellite, looks like it’s really getting ready to take off y’all have been posting this since last evening. 4 13 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 minute ago, NeffsvilleWx said: y’all have been posting this since last evening. People have been posting this since Monday. Eventually it’ll be right…. Maybe. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Model guidance honing in on high end cat 2 at landfall. Still think we can see low-end cat 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Just now, MUWX said: People have been posting this since Monday. Eventually it’ll be right…. Maybe. Helene is still dealing with mid level dry air, you can see it on WV and dropsondes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 minute ago, BYG Jacob said: Helene is still dealing with mid level dry air, you can see it on WV and dropsondes It's subsidence from the VHTs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Much of Helene's issues seem internal to me. I guess there could be some poorly analyzed from Hurricane John undercutting it, but i think that's less likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 17 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: This storm has quite an extensive PRE. The center is still West of Naples but the rainfall is already pushing into Kentucky and West Virginia. Fresh water flooding will be a huge deal on top of the wind and immediate coastal impacts. I really wouldn't say the rain in GA and KY, or most of the SE are part of the hurricane directly... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 minute ago, MattPetrulli said: It's subsidence from the VHTs Not sure if that’s subsidence from convection, but RH values that low aren’t going to cut it for a major hurricane, and that is getting pulled into the core of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 To me on the water vapour loop it looks like there's still some dry air wrapping into the southern part of the storm from the west/south. Not sure it'll have enough time to fully clear that out and ramp up to forecast intensity before landfall. We'll see if the latest burst of convection on the north side of the storm can fully wrap around the centre, then we might have a bit more to work with before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 In terms of reducing the populated areas affected by 12'+surge, the current NHC track is ideal. Not a ton of populated towns East of track. ST Mark's is the potential exception as they are right on the cusp either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Much of Helene's issues seem internal to me. I guess there could be some poorly analyzed from Hurricane John undercutting it, but i think that's less likely. Cat 3 at landfall is definitely noteworthy but hopefully not catastrophic, so impact would be Idalia-like and in the same general area. Maybe somewhat more severe given the larger size. The inland impacts might be more spoken about in the end especially flood impact. I think it may be running out of time to really resolve these issues and make a run at Cat 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 You can really see the shape of the eyewall on the lightning map from blitzortung 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 25 minutes ago, Thrasher Fan said: I think things line up correctly with their overall track; just can't recall the PTC NWS office ever breaking things down on a county by county basis in this manner before. They are doing a good job of indicating the vast differences just 20-30 miles can make on intensity of the winds. Ah gotcha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 The haranguing about the exact landfall point feels like missing the forest for the trees with regards to the ultimate worst impacts of this very large storm. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Just now, konksw said: The haranguing about the exact landfall point feels like missing the forest for the trees with regards to the ultimate worst impacts of this very large storm. The stranger thing is how far west they continue to be over GA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 GFS continues the slowing trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 I feel like people forget that Helene will still be a strong storm just due to its monster size. Hurricane Ike looked like was a lot 'weaker' when it made landfall but it caused much more damage just due to its huge size compared to a smaller storm of its strength. Helene will be more destructive than a typical smaller hurricane at this category. Just because the wind speeds aren't super high the low pressure and large size/wind field are going to cause much more damage. I feel like people focus way too much on the max wind speed and what category the storm is when there's more that factor into its power and damage overall. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 5 minutes ago, konksw said: The haranguing about the exact landfall point feels like missing the forest for the trees with regards to the ultimate worst impacts of this very large storm. To a point...but I would argue that its pretty crucial given how lopsided the system will be in its impact. It will somewhat analagous to northeast storms in that respect. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 26 Author Share Posted September 26 Decided to hang in Perry for now but will reassess a little later when I have a better long term motion of the eye. For now, a bit far but obviously getting closer. Activity has definitely picked up around here as Helene approaches. Stay safe everyone in the path. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Decided to hang in Perry for now but will reassess a little later when I have a better long term motion of the eye. For now, a bit far but obviously getting closer. Activity has definitely picked up around here as Helene approaches. Stay safe everyone in the path. Stay there. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 So the latest IR frame appears to put the eye at 84.9W 24.8 N. Is that actually the eye? I ask because if you plot that on the 11 a.m. NHC track, it's already almost out of the cone to the right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 26 Author Share Posted September 26 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Stay there. Yeah that’s what I’m thinking right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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