erbsonci Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Yep, those spots down near Laurel and Osprey are low lying near Venice Beach. Some sit below sea level. I was just there this week, got out of town this morning. Yes, I don't think most people realize how north of Pinellas all the way to Tally is basically very low areas at sea level. Not every single track of land but 99.9% on the water-side of US 19. There's a reason it's never built up. You'd be amazed at how far and high the water comes in. Stay safe if you're still in FL, @DDweatherman. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 2 minutes ago, erbsonci said: Yes, I don't think most people realize how north of Pinellas all the way to Tally is basically very low areas at sea level. Not every single track of land but 99.9% on the water-side of US 19. There's a reason it's never built up. You'd be amazed at how far and high the water comes in. Stay safe if you're still in FL, @DDweatherman. I’ve driven that coast line and also driven the US 19/27/98 all the way to Destin, it’s low lying, quite poor areas that are very spread out population wise. I drove through there over a year after Michael and most of the damage off the immediate roads was almost untouched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Is that eye 32 miles across? Did I read that correctly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Just now, Master of Disaster said: Is that eye 32 miles across? Did I read that correctly? It's elliptical and open sw now, but pretty large eye overall. F. OPEN SW G. E13/38/22 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 34 minutes ago, wncsnow said: A lot of Mets are talking about the eastward shift they have noticed and they expect NHC to move more east at 11 am. It’s almost a given with these eastern Gulf storms that they shift east in the end. Hopefully it doesn’t keep going too far. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wcdubski Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Not that I encourage using the HRRR for this right now, but check out the srfc wind gusts for this. I think the idea of what it shows makes sense. A very large windfield to the east that rips into SC. Also, the backside of this with the pressure rises in the ATL area likely bring the strongest winds there on the backside. But man the rains in the high country of NC and SC. Long time lurker and knowledge gatherer, thanks to everyone here for the many years of true service. I am 30 minutes East of Atlanta, My brother's family is in Valdese, NC & my nephew is currently at App State in Watauga County NC, so I really appreciate the high country knowledge sprinkled in here. Helps me help them, they don't do weather aware very well. Stay safe everyone and again, thank you all. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Prolific rainfall amounts incoming for Upstate South Carolina and Western North Carolina into the Smokies due to upsloping. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: It's elliptical and open sw now, but pretty large eye overall. F. OPEN SW G. E13/38/22 Now that you point it out you can see the open area at the SW. Didn't even notice till you said that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Right now the core isn't tight enough and with an eyewall open to the SW, any intensification will be slow. Leaning toward low 950's minimal cat 3 at landfall, those obviously still with very significant impacts over a broad area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 2 minutes ago, Master of Disaster said: Now that you point it out you can see the open area at the SW. Didn't even notice till you said that. You can see it better on the ir. There's a lack of cold cloud tops in the southern semi circle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Lightning popping around the eyewall for the first time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 6 minutes ago, jm1220 said: It’s almost a given with these eastern Gulf storms that they shift east in the end. Hopefully it doesn’t keep going too far. def a bit east of track already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Lots of lighting in eastern eyewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 The front is going to retrograde west, in a bent back fashion wrt time and latitude. I think there’s an error trap to see the current position of the front as the furthest extent west Helene can travel. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Prolific rainfall amounts incoming for Upstate South Carolina and Western North Carolina into the Smokies due to upsloping. It's not often you see a Tropical Storm Warning in Asheville, NC. They're currently under a flood warning at the moment around Gatlinburg anyways, I cannot imagine how bad things are going to get when this roars through. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 hour ago, beanskip said: And it's going to keep moving east. Completely agree. The eastern eyewall is at 85N and 25N. The past 4 hours the track has had more of a easterly component than northerly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 14 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Prolific rainfall amounts incoming for Upstate South Carolina and Western North Carolina into the Smokies due to upsloping. 9.6in and counting.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 3 minutes ago, nwohweather said: It's not often you see a Tropical Storm Warning in Asheville, NC. They're currently under a flood warning at the moment around Gatlinburg anyways, I cannot imagine how bad things are going to get when this roars through. Wondering if Gatlinburg is west of the upslope zone on easterly flow. If so it might not be so bad there since from here on the rain will be coming on strong easterly flow and there will definitely be a downslope component in E TN. But places in NC/SC/GA that get heavy rain on that easterly flow-oh boy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Seems to me like the models are really struggling with how and when the Fujiwhara effects take place with the pull west. Hard to blame anyone/anything on the challenge the post onshore track is becoming. The stalled/remnant cold front isnt helping matters either. A bunch of moving parts. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 5 minutes ago, Seminole said: Completely agree. The eastern eyewall is at 85N and 25N. The past 4 hours the track has had more of a easterly component than northerly. It's gained .6 degrees of latitude and has lost .2 degrees of longitude between the 12z nhc position and 14z recon center fix. It's moving nne. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 9 minutes ago, nwohweather said: It's not often you see a Tropical Storm Warning in Asheville, NC. They're currently under a flood warning at the moment around Gatlinburg anyways, I cannot imagine how bad things are going to get when this roars through. I think it is new that they have inland hurricane/TS watches and warnings. We will see more of this in the future. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 ICON is way east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Latest VDM is closed eyewall. Off to the races now 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Updates to the Tropical Storm Warnings have been hoisted in N Ga. Very different wording from county to county as you go from west to east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 If Helene is going to jump to the next level, it needs to be able to wrap the deep convection all the way around the center, which it is having trouble doing this morning. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 minute ago, Thrasher Fan said: Updates to the Tropical Storm Warnings have been hoisted in N Ga. Very different wording from county to county as you go from west to east. What do you mean? Are the grids not matching up the warning text? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard22 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Is anyone surprised they shifted the track a little west ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 6 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: Latest VDM is closed eyewall. Off to the races now If it holds this time, anyway. It keeps closing and opening. I think maybe 4 times now since yesterday it’s cycled between closed circular, open elliptical, and back. If it holds onto keeping it closed then we may get some prolific strengthening. If not I think it just remains on this steady state to slight strengthening route it’s been on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 3 minutes ago, Blizzard22 said: Is anyone surprised they shifted the track a little west ? It's shifted east 15-20 miles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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