Met1985 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Meanwhile mtns of SC will slide into the Atlantic. Yeah we've got major flooding already with several spots already seeing 6 to 14 inches of rainfall before Helene even arrives. That's in WNC in and around Asheville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Just now, CoastalWx said: It's going to get pretty bad there. Hate to say it. Your right and we've prepared for it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 5 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: Indeed. MBY is up to 5” and counting, while those just to my north are reporting almost 7” That bad microburst that went through Greenville two days ago weakened a lot of trees which doesn’t help matters. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 minute ago, dan11295 said: VDM supports 963 mb,, though the 8 am advisory is 960 mb. brief opening of the W eyewall may have halted intensification temporarily. Agreed and was initially confused about the 960. However, I realized they're dropping two drones in the eye on this mission. Perhaps the drone is providing in-situ observations and that's where they got that. Otherwise, idk either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 26 Author Share Posted September 26 1 minute ago, dan11295 said: VDM supports 963 mb,, though the 8 am advisory is 960 mb. brief opening of the W eyewall may have halted intensification temporarily. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its going to need to ramp up pretty quickly from here on out or the worse case scenario with respect to surge may not play out, regardless.....even a last moment intensificaiton may not have time to gather as much surge, though the shelf is pretty shallow in the big bend region... It's ramping up now. Large CDO structure developing and wrapping around 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Tide around Tampa beginning to show effects of storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 26 Author Share Posted September 26 One more. Tail Doppler is extremely helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: It's ramping up now. Large CDO structure developing and wrapping around Right......the implication is that we aren't behind schedule much.....if it reamined stagnant today, then its time to adjust. The envt. never looked optimal yeseterday and last night. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 That water will get high in Tampa with this a little further east. As soon as the wind goes from SE-SW-WSW..it will pile in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RamblinRed Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Happy to see the overnight developments. Sort of gone from potentially horrible to just very bad. TLH and ATL being on the west side of the storms a big deal. It's current track through GA takes through alot more of the least populated areas. Still planning to sleep in the basement Thursday night given all the trees around us. Doesn't look like it is going to blow up to quite as huge as monster as was being modeled last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 The doppler velocity image is telling. Those areas well east of center will get whacked real good. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 2 minutes ago, RamblinRed said: Happy to see the overnight developments. Sort of gone from potentially horrible to just very bad. TLH and ATL being on the west side of the storms a big deal. It's current track through GA takes through alot more of the least populated areas. Still planning to sleep in the basement Thursday night given all the trees around us. Doesn't look like it is going to blow up to quite as huge as monster as was being modeled last night. It’s good that it seems to be targeting the least populated area it can but hopefully it stays far enough away from Tampa to not make that situation worse. The flooding impacts inland though are baked in no matter what it does at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 26 Author Share Posted September 26 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Right......the implication is that we aren't behind schedule much.....if it reamined stagnant today, then its time to adjust. The envt. never looked optimal yeseterday and last night. 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The doppler velocity image is telling. Those areas well east of center will get whacked real good. One of the main differences from a few days ago is that the hurricane intensity models really peak this as it’s making landfall. That has its own implications if correct with regard to mixing winds down, but those models really crank the east side while only making the wind field more symmetrical this afternoon and evening. HWRF as an example, even if a bit overdone, I’m looking at structure here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: One of the main differences from a few days ago is that the hurricane intensity models really peak this as it’s making landfall. That has its own implications if correct with regard to mixing winds down, but those models really crank the east side while only making the wind field more symmetrical this afternoon and evening. HWRF as an example, even if a bit overdone, I’m looking at structure here. It's also why I am more concerned with interior SC and NC. This is going to be a good hit there wind wise. CLT may gust higher than ATL to be honest. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Graphic from NYT showing probabilities of damaging winds for different regions. Concerned this will downplay dangers as you often have damaging tornado events well outside the forecast track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 All the gravity waves radiating out on first vis are indicative of intensification picking up now too. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 One of the main reasons ATL should be calmer is due to the cold air damming and stabilization at the surface. Need that southerly component to maximize gust potential. That matters less in the expose ridges farther north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Looking at the visible GOES it looks like it's starting to get that look, wouldn't be surprised to see RI shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 It needs to wrap deep convection further around the center, but yeah eye is starting to clear out a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think the timing of the cycle of internal processes bodes well for FL....they need to pray this never quite gets its act together. I said when it interacted with Yucatan that any chance of a prelandfall EWRC was out the window. Yes, that is some thing I have been noting...maybe not in terms of maxamizing surge, but otherwise the system will probably be more impactful than had it pulled a Katrina out over the loop current. Sure, there would be an internet-ogling-orgy from all of us weather dorks, but this is the more precarious scenario in terms of maxamizing the wind threat IMO. 11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: One of the main differences from a few days ago is that the hurricane intensity models really peak this as it’s making landfall. That has its own implications if correct with regard to mixing winds down, but those models really crank the east side while only making the wind field more symmetrical this afternoon and evening. HWRF as an example, even if a bit overdone, I’m looking at structure here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 4 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: All the gravity waves radiating out on first vis are indicative of intensification picking up now too. Solar min doing it's work. I wonder if the storm will maintain some level of asymmetry through landfall. Large systems have a hard time mixing out dry air entirely sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Starting to cook now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Still a good bit of dry air on the west side though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 It's gradually strengthening but it's not going to really take off until it has a better inner core and a smaller rmw. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 26 Author Share Posted September 26 Speaking to the asymmetrical wind field. Seeing 114kt at that height is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 So maybe not now, but at some point we're going to have to talk about these spaghetti models and their "corrected" tracks. This is yesterday's 18z map -- just 30-36 hours from landfall. Half of these solutions are outside of the 8 a.m. cone! All except one are west of the current trackline. Questions: Why were the spaghetti plots so much farther west than the operational runs and even the ensembles? Why did the NHC defer so strongly to the spaghetti maps? What am I missing? 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 4 minutes ago, beanskip said: So maybe not now, but at some point we're going to have to talk about these spaghetti models and their "corrected" tracks. This is yesterday's 18z map -- just 30-36 hours from landfall. Half of these solutions are outside of the 8 a.m. cone! All except one are west of the current trackline. Questions: Why were the spaghetti plots so much farther west than the operational runs and even the ensembles? Why did the NHC defer so strongly to the spaghetti maps? What am I missing? This was all explained yesterday. Hasn't the track only moved like 20 miles east? The nhc uses the corrected models because it's the best tools we have. What else do you want them to use? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 8 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: This was all explained yesterday. Hasn't the track only moved like 20 miles east? The nhc uses the corrected models because it's the best tools we have. What else do you want them to use? I've been tracking storms for 30 years. The operational Euro has always ruled the roost, not these spaghetti plots. When did that change? Why are the spaghetti plots so out of line with all the operational runs? You said before the tropical models were driving this, but they are also now on the far eastern edge of the cone and have trended east a lot more than 20 miles. The NHC track is surely going to keep moving east at 11 and when it does, ALL of the 18z spaghetti tracks will either be west of the center track and/or completely out of the cone. The above points haven't been explained AT ALL. 2 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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