BoulderWX Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Wild advisory image. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 minute ago, BoulderWX said: Glad to see this didn’t explode overnight but seems like it’s getting its act together this AM. prayers and best wishes for all in its path. Will be a fascinating day of tracking. On the no explosion thing, this hurricane has improved in structure quite rapidly. I mean, about 14 hours ago it had very little convection around the eye. 12 hours ago it was a ragged spirally mess due to dry air etc. I think the rI is trivial compared to the structural stuff. It's just whether there is enough time left, and there seems to be, and not enough time for anything but strengthening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Water is already coming into Gulfport. https://thegabber.com/gulfport-florida-beach-webcam/ 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 26 Author Share Posted September 26 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Latest VDM now shows a closed circular eye at 32nm diameter. 8°C temperature contrast. Last VDM had concentric eyewalls open in the NE with the outer eyewall also at 32nm and a 6° temp contrast. Would like to see an even more organized eye at the next pass to know these changes have taken root (though it looks like it has). Edited to add: the western side looks weak but the eastern half is looking robust on both IR and recon. Open to the west now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Atlanta still sitting on the fence between a real nasty hit and more of a nuisance. The official forecast would point to more of a nuisance there for now with the center passing just east of the metro. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 https://www.blueparrotsgi.com/multimedia/livecam.htm Live webcam on St. George Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terrier Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 St Marks NWR lighthouse weatherSTEM: https://wakulla.weatherstem.com/fswnstmarks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 6 minutes ago, eyewall said: Atlanta still sitting on the fence between a real nasty hit and more of a nuisance. The official forecast would point to more of a nuisance there for now with the center passing just east of the metro. Yeah I think ATl and perhaps TLH dodged one. West side of this will certainly be weaker I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 26 Author Share Posted September 26 Seeing more tor warnings pop. Maybe a CC drop west of Hilton Head. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 7 minutes ago, Seminole said: https://www.blueparrotsgi.com/multimedia/livecam.htm Live webcam on St. George Island I see a blue hut. Brings back many fond memories of the blue shed. Will it survive? (Likely not) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 More east trending by HAFS-A, B and HMON. All three now cross 84W before making landfall, which puts them in western Taylor County. Also fascinating to note that the Wednesday 8 pm advisory "center track line" is, at 5 a.m. Thursday, the western boundary of the cone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah I think ATl and perhaps TLH dodged one. West side of this will certainly be weaker I think. Really hoping this is the case because as of yesterday it looked like a worst case scenario for both areas. Way too early to tell but if they can remain on the west side, that would be a saving grace. Regardless, I think it’s way more than a nuisance either way, but will be *less* devastating if the can remain on the western side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Just now, beanskip said: More east trending by HAFS-A, B and HMON. All three now cross 84W before making landfall, which puts them in western Taylor County. Also fascinating to note that the Wednesday 8 pm advisory "center track line" is, at 5 a.m. Thursday, the western boundary of the cone. If it can get east of Tallahassee that would be great news for them. Very little time for it to weaken before reaching there. Maybe there’s a “sweet spot” this can get to before it trends so far east the effects on Tampa Bay get much worse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 With the 500mb upper low seemingly stationary over western KY and TN, wouldn't that force the track of Helene more than a little bit east of Tallahassee and Atlanta?? Thought this upper low was supposed to be cut off over Arkansas or Oklahoma to allow the western paths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Just now, BoulderWX said: Really hoping this is the case because as of yesterday it looked like a worst case scenario for both areas. Way too early to tell but if they can remain on the west side, that would be a saving grace. Regardless, I think it’s way more than a nuisance either way, but will be *less* devastating if the can remain on the western side. I was never really sold on the west of TLH to ATL tracks though. I did get a little nervous when those tropical models were stubborn, but it looks like they’ll tick east enough to avoid worst-case. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 3 minutes ago, BoulderWX said: Really hoping this is the case because as of yesterday it looked like a worst case scenario for both areas. Way too early to tell but if they can remain on the west side, that would be a saving grace. Regardless, I think it’s way more than a nuisance either way, but will be *less* devastating if the can remain on the western side. The 925mb winds are fairly unimpressive on the west side of this once it reaches ATL’s latitude. I could see them not even hitting 40kts if this passes 30-50 miles east of them. There isn’t a big high to the north over the Oh Valley or Midwest so you don’t really have anything aiding the pressure gradient with the storm once it gets 100 miles or more inland so really only near and barely east of the center would likely see winds capable of very nasty damage but ATL itself even with 35-40kts could see probably a few hundred thousand lose power 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 26 Author Share Posted September 26 Still have time for wobbles and changes west or east. See the image from the poster yesterday that had a mean 12 hour track error of 22 miles. It’s nothing in the global scheme of things but makes a huge difference locally. I didn’t buy the west tracks either but I won’t feel confident until hours from now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 25 minutes ago, Prospero said: Water is already coming into Gulfport. https://thegabber.com/gulfport-florida-beach-webcam/ Decided to shelter in place vs going to our usual comfy inland hotel. Water main break in the neighborhood late last night and lost power a few hours ago. Light band just passed thru and breeze is picking up. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 The wind issue to me is east of TLH into the areas near and E of Valdosta to east of Macon and on NNE to western SC. Peak winds anyways. Macon May get it good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Meanwhile mtns of SC will slide into the Atlantic. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 2 hours ago, MattPetrulli said: Thought so too, but NHC is still using the catastrophic wind wording which is used for category 4+ only so I think it's just the forecast point. What do they have to gain by removing that at this point?? Zilch....an immense amount to lose. I'm waiting to hear @Randomgirl's thoughts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randomgirl Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What do they have to gain by removing that at this point?? Zilch....an immense amount to lose. I'm waiting to hear @Randomgirl's thoughts... Hey, I'm just a lurker. Not sure why you'd want my opinion on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Just now, Randomgirl said: Hey, I'm just a lurker. Not sure why you'd want my opinion on this. Inclusivity reigns supreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Athens to Clemson to Asheville…. Get ready 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 26 Author Share Posted September 26 Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast this evening. Weakening is expected after landfall, but Helene's fast forward speed will allow strong, damaging winds, especially in gusts, to penetrate well inland across the southeastern United States, including over the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km). The Key West Naval Air Station recently reported sustained winds of 41 mph (66 km/h) and a wind gust of 55 mph (89 km/h). An observation in Sand Key recently reported sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 58 mph (93 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 960 mb (28.35 inches). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Meanwhile mtns of SC will slide into the Atlantic. Indeed. MBY is up to 5” and counting, while those just to my north are reporting almost 7” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Its going to need to ramp up pretty quickly from here on out or the worse case scenario with respect to surge may not play out, regardless.....even a last moment intensificaiton may not have time to gather as much surge, though the shelf is pretty shallow in the big bend region... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BretWx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Meanwhile mtns of SC will slide into the Atlantic. Almost 8in here so far outside of Hendersonville, NC. Roads closing all over the place. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 3 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: Indeed. MBY is up to 5” and counting, while those just to my north are reporting almost 7” Just now, BretWx said: Almost 8in here so far outside of Hendersonville, NC. Roads closing all over the place. It's going to get pretty bad there. Hate to say it. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 VDM supports 963 mb,, though the 8 am advisory is 960 mb. brief opening of the W eyewall may have halted intensification temporarily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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