Major Hurricane Helene

[wthrmn654]

1 minute ago, Master of Disaster said:

How warm is the water ahead of this? I had a site years ago to find this but can't remember what it was. 

It was posted already one or 2 times look at a page or 2 before this one

[Master of Disaster]

9 minutes ago, user13 said:

f I'm surprised they kept the due N peg. It does look like it's ticking east

That's pretty much Mexico Beach from Michael. 

[user13]

2 minutes ago, Master of Disaster said:

How warm is the water ahead of this? I had a site years ago to find this but can't remember what it was. 

87 right now

[jbenedet]

There was ~100 mile shift west to the landfall location on 0z Thurs guidance vs 18z wed.

[user13]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

There was ~100 mile shift west to the landfall location on 0z Thurs guidance vs 18z wed.

What's up, bro? Hope all is well

[jbenedet]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

There was ~100 mile shift west to the landfall location on 0z Thurs guidance vs 18z wed. The shift is more than 200 Miles west up into central GA latitude

 

[WxWatcher007]

IR looks to be improving markedly the last hour or two, but let’s see if it actually holds. 
 

[so_whats_happening]

45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think the timing of the cycle of internal processes bodes well for FL....they need to pray this never quite gets its act together. I said when it interacted with Yucatan that any chance of a prelandfall EWRC was out the window.

Definitely been a concern of mine. It looks as though it finally was able to kick out most of the dry air and may need only a 6 hour window coming up of convection wrapping around fully and then it takes off... We are within about 1 day of landfall and the time from now until it peaks is crucial. If it happens quick there is still a small chance of it but maybe not enough if it happens around daytime and throughout the day tomorrow not gonna be pretty.

[wthrmn654]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

IR looks to be improving markedly the last hour or two, but let’s see if it actually holds. 
 

Idk  it kinda looks like the western flank that builds them just vanishes. With that said,  it's not near the core/ center so it may not affect it much.

 

And some sort of weird clear blob near bottom right area of the center. I'm guessing some dry air from earlier

 

[WxWatcher007]

10 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Idk  it kinda looks like the western flank that builds them just vanishes. With that said,  it's not near the core/ center so it may not affect it much.

 

And some sort of weird clear blob near bottom right area of the center. I'm guessing some dry air from earlier

 

I think it’s ok but only if the inner core can completely close. Otherwise any intensification will remain gradual. 

Once the eye can permanently close and wrap convection around it, this’ll take off. The runway is still clear, the system just has to put everything together.

[Boston Bulldog]

Notable improvement on IR. As a whole the core looks a lot more robust and less hollowed out than just a few hours ago…

[Moderately Unstable]

The main noticable change on IR recently (by my eye) is in the LL wv channel. Within the last ~45-60 mins, seeing some better angular momentum with the cells firing along the eyewall itself and better richer coverage of wet air. Obviously, with a storm this large there's a lot of mass to accelerate. The physics remain good heading into the nocturnal convective peak. Water is hot, hot water is deep, UL ventilation is excellent. Often once you see that sort of classic rotation around the eyewall, you're looking at significant intensification. I'm still wrapping my head around the amount of angular momentum the storm has - consider the spatial scope of this thing, and its speed and depth. Impressive.

 

 

[Amped]

GFS is slower and stronger, but still loves Perry FL just as much as 12z and 18z.

[USCG RS]

26 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Idk  it kinda looks like the western flank that builds them just vanishes. With that said,  it's not near the core/ center so it may not affect it much.

 

And some sort of weird clear blob near bottom right area of the center. I'm guessing some dry air from earlier

 

That western flank looks like trough interaction and outflow building to me. It looks pretty amazing from that perspective, imo

[wncsnow]

GFS continuing to be much further east than NHC track. Goes east of Atlanta. 

[USCG RS]

 

[WxWatcher007]

The 96-frame GOES-E loop shows just how much organizational progress has been made in just the last few hours. Deeper convection, much more symmetrical, and a less diffuse look. Will be interesting to see what recon finds as convection looks to finally fully wrap upshear. 

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET: a bit E of 12Z and a little stronger once again as expected with landfall Big Bend and goes over Athens or 65 miles E of ATL/75 miles E of NHC track

HURRICANE HELENE     ANALYSED POSITION : 22.8N  86.8W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092024

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 26.09.2024    0  22.8N  86.8W      976            52
    1200UTC 26.09.2024   12  24.6N  85.7W      972            50
    0000UTC 27.09.2024   24  28.6N  84.0W      967            62
    1200UTC 27.09.2024   36  34.5N  83.3W      979            37
    0000UTC 28.09.2024   48  38.3N  86.9W      985            33
    1200UTC 28.09.2024   60  36.7N  87.7W      995            16
    0000UTC 29.09.2024   72  37.6N  87.2W     1002            24
    1200UTC 29.09.2024   84  37.0N  87.0W     1006            21
    0000UTC 30.09.2024   96  37.2N  86.8W     1009            20
    1200UTC 30.09.2024  108              CEASED TRACKING

[Chinook]

The connection of the hurricane with the USA weather system makes it look like the hurricane has a million fingers

[Floydbuster]

I may be dating myself a bit...but it is disturbing to me how much Helene looks like Hurricane Opal of 1995.

 

OPAL

HELENE

[Rtd208]

[SnoSki14]

Given how fast it'll be moving north tomorrow, there's going to be some very strong winds on the east side. 

Tremendous surge potential even if it doesn't get stronger than a Cat 2.

[beanskip]

HAFS-B goes east vs its 18z run. In fact, it crosses 84W (which NHC track never does) way back offshore at 26W. Ends up in Taylor County just like (unadjusted) Euro/GFS/UK. 
 

Question: I don’t ever remember so much weight given to these adjusted spaghetti models. When did that start. And why is there such a large range between those model tracks and their operational brothers and sisters? 

[GaWx]

0Z Euro: slight E shift of landfall to central Taylor county, notably E of NHC and at 957 mb

[GaWx]

0Z Euro: 978 mb at Athens, which is 75 miles E of NHC track/similar to UKMET/GFS/CMC and very close to all-time record low SLP at Athens

[GaWx]

Maybe I’m not recalling correctly, but I can’t recall a storm for which the NHC was notably west of the Euro, GFS, and UKMET for multiple runs. The CMC is now similar with its east trend and the Icon is even further east.

[GaWx]

Released 2:19AM EDT: 970 mb/slow drop
 

URNT12 KNHC 260619
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092024
A. 26/05:48:10Z
B. 23.56 deg N 086.49 deg W
C. 700 mb 2843 m
D. 970 mb
E. 195 deg 4 kt
F. OPEN NW
G. C24
H. 60 kt
I. 315 deg 28 nm 05:39:30Z
J. 064 deg 54 kt
K. 315 deg 36 nm 05:37:00Z
L. 72 kt
M. 131 deg 53 nm 06:03:30Z
N. 230 deg 80 kt
O. 131 deg 47 nm 06:02:00Z
P. 9 C / 3064 m
Q. 14 C / 3046 m
R. 5 C / NA
S. 1234 / 07
T. 0.02 / 2 nm
U. AF309 1409A HELENE OB 04
MAX FL WIND 80 KT 131 / 47 NM 06:02:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 15 C 311 / 11 NM FROM FL CNTR

[Rtd208]

A bit tamer on the 00z intensity guidance.  We'll see what the next update shows.

[dbullsfan]

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

URNT12 KNHC 260619
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092024
A. 26/05:48:10Z
B. 23.56 deg N 086.49 deg W
C. 700 mb 2843 m
D. 970 mb
E. 195 deg 4 kt
F. OPEN NW
G. C24
H. 60 kt
I. 315 deg 28 nm 05:39:30Z
J. 064 deg 54 kt
K. 315 deg 36 nm 05:37:00Z
L. 72 kt
M. 131 deg 53 nm 06:03:30Z
N. 230 deg 80 kt
O. 131 deg 47 nm 06:02:00Z
P. 9 C / 3064 m
Q. 14 C / 3046 m
R. 5 C / NA
S. 1234 / 07
T. 0.02 / 2 nm
U. AF309 1409A HELENE OB 04
MAX FL WIND 80 KT 131 / 47 NM 06:02:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 15 C 311 / 11 NM FROM FL CNTR

 

 

Do you think this gets to 105 MPH by 8 AM as NHC is sticking with? seems extremely bullish on the RI that just is struggling to get going. 

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, dbullsfan said:

 

 

Do you think this gets to 105 MPH by 8 AM as NHC is sticking with? seems extremely bullish on the RI that just is struggling to get going. 

Even though we’re coming up on DMAX, I don’t think it will strengthen 20 mph in under 6 hours considering the latest recon being only 1 mb stronger, the way it looks right now on IR, and considering its huge size with TS force winds extending out up to a whopping 345 miles! Sand Key, FL, just had a sustained wind of 45 mph! Due to that huge and growing size this storm has a ton of power for an 85 mph storm. The overall impact as it is now would probably already be equivalent to a cat 2.