SchaumburgStormer Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’d resist the urge to play the over performing/underperforming game. It can’t intensify at a rapid pace (again) until the next stage of the organizational phase is complete. That takes time and is not linear in many cases. We’ve seen time and time again where we have sig pressure drops in between recon passes. Certainly can be a quick process. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: They’re riding the Alabama line, or even west of it fully in AL Wow -- even MORE west. Some of those are over Panama City! Looks like the main difference is the turn north (or even NNE) before landfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Really banking on that Fujiwara from the ULL. That's the wildcard, IMO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 23 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Looking at the airmass composite, which is used for seeing dry air, it's still affecting it. Didn't expect to see dry air getting mixed into the equation at all honestly. ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 26 SEP 2024 Time : 001020 UTC Lat : 23:01:15 N Lon : 86:34:59 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 3.8 / 979.5mb/ 61.0kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 3.7 3.8 3.8 Center Temp : -40.6C Cloud Region Temp : -57.1C Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION Subtropical Adjustment : OFF Extratropical Adjustment : OFF Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT Weakening Flag : ON Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF Hard to 100% tell, but that look more like a solid, protected pocket of moisture. Don't see any dry air left in the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said: We’ve seen time and time again where we have sig pressure drops in between recon passes. Certainly can be a quick process. Larger storms have winds that tend to react slowly to fast pressure drops. I am not on the windshield wiper ride on intensity though. I'm here to watch and learn, the GoM can escalate storms quickly. If we have an organized hurricane hitting primo water there is no telling how strong she can ramp up in the short time over water. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 2 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said: Hard to 100% tell, but that look more like a solid, protected pocket of moisture. Don't see any dry air left in the storm That one wrap/ sliver on the western side where there's lack of clouds would usually imply there's dry air in that location. Atleast that's how it would present itself the last few tropical systems this year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 It’s definitely fighting some dry air. Can see it on IR. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s definitely fighting some dry air. Can see it on IR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s definitely fighting some dry air. Can see it on IR. Looks like it finally managed to pinch it off, just a matter of shoving out whatever is left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 10 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Really banking on that Fujiwara from the ULL. That's the wildcard, IMO. Yeah, the physics model is making gambles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 1 minute ago, BYG Jacob said: Looks like it finally managed to pinch it off, just a matter of shoving out whatever is left. It’s got the zit looking towers going up. You want to see more widespread deeper convection. Helene suffering from an acne problem. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 3 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Maybe I’m misjudging but seems like it’s having a really tough time organizing a central CDO, looks ragged and like it can’t wrap completely around. Might be the dry air issue or something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 I’ll be interested to see if the NHC waivers at all in their next update. It has a long ways to go to reach the forecast for how mediocre it looks now. Dry air is doing a number on it, and big storms never really may wrap up quickly. I have my doubts that this gets to cat 4 before land fall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Just my opinion but it looks like the dry air is on its last stand and the banding structure is looks robust and locked in place. Usually this indicates the start of a 12=24hr RI period. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 The last pass through the eye was 973 mb extrapolated...no change in the last 80 minutes. The evidence still points to another round of intensification later tonight. It might be worth noting that although RI probabilities dropped on the 0Z cycle they are still high climatologically speaking.Sent from my Pixel 5a using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 I’m not sure recon even supports current NHC winds. Category 4 becoming much less likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 54 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'm going to Bonaire, GA. Flight leaves at 5pm (if it isn't cancelled) landing around 6. Thoughts for that area? Never been in a cane before and I'm not even gonna be fake....I hope we get something out of it. You would experience more in north Georgia 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Just now, MUWX said: I’m not sure recon even supports current NHC winds. Category 4 becoming much less likely. Maybe be a little premature to make any calls like that just yet. By tomorrow 8 am if nothing has really changed by then I'd start to have doubts. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Dry air intrusions seem to be the story this season. That dry air made it into the core and really did a number on Helene getting organized. Francine struggled its whole life with dry air. Never could shake it. The high octane ocean and favorable outflow aloft will still support intensification but if the dry air can never fully be purged Helene won't hit her ceiling. Probably more a low end 3 maybe mid 3 at best. Regardless still will be devastating impact. Curious to see what will happen tonight over Loop Current. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Last pass of 2nd recon 970mb it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 And the AF plane just went through with 971 mb extrapolated. If we split the difference between NOAA and AF that's 972 mb. Maybe it's almost ready to intensify.Sent from my Pixel 5a using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 26 Author Share Posted September 26 13 minutes ago, MUWX said: I’m not sure recon even supports current NHC winds. Category 4 becoming much less likely. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 What are TC examples of low SLP with modest winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 I just hope Helene isn't doing what Michael did, which was basically to stay in check until the final 12-15 hours and then begin to explode. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 14 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: What are TC examples of low SLP with modest winds? I was in the SW eye of Isabel and the pressure was 970mb and peak wind gust for the event was 51 mph....though on the NE side of the huge eye they got absolutely hammered with gust into the 80-90 range at the same time...but in our case the pressure did not indicate our winds, in Fran for instance our pressure never got close to 970 but we gusted to 110.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 26 Author Share Posted September 26 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Kinda getting Ida vibes. Ida kinda struggled/gradually intensified throughout the day before LF with dry air I believe (though this dry air is more significant I think) then exploded over like a 12 hour period. Granted, Ida was smaller than what Helene is/will be, thus exacerbating the rate of intensification. Also Helene has more time than what Ida did at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 Impressive how close it got to cancan area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Wouldn't that double structure support an EWRC happening? That will definitely make it tougher for RI to occur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 5 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said: Wouldn't that double structure support an EWRC happening? That will definitely make it tougher for RI to occur It may not be a ERC so much as the actual structuring of the eyewall finally coming together. Likewise, following ERCs (or the structuring finally being put together), hurricanes tend to take off. When these types of double bands develop and collapse to one, it tends to be a sign of health. Given the environment otherwise, it could be a rather ominous sign. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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