Major Hurricane Helene

Master of Disaster · 2024-09-26T00:36:15Z

2 minutes ago, Nibor said:

This might be better at illustrating your question.

That's even better.

USCG RS · 2024-09-26T00:37:26Z

4 minutes ago, Master of Disaster said:

Thank you. Kinda like your reply then? It was a question. Like is that what it is?

Based on this Satellite Picture, I would say that it is possible that these are Hot Towers showing up. That witsthanding, I would say they are not all that clearly defined as of yet, assuming they are. These hot towers, however, tend to indicate RI is beginning when observed.

962173967_Screenshot2024-09-25203152.png.d943d2521cd6c3e8c4ccf6bb15599d97.png

This is a pretty good and informative video on it:

https://www.google.com/search?q=how+to+see+a+hot+tower+in+a+hurricane&oq=how+to+see+a+hot+tower+in+a+hurricane+&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyCQgAEEUYORigATIHCAEQIRigATIHCAIQIRigATIHCAMQIRigATIHCAQQIRigATIHCAUQIRirAjIHCAYQIRirAjIHCAcQIRirAtIBCDQ1MjZqMGo3qAIAsAIA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:d8125e6a,vid:8U5puPnqMNo,st:0

bdgwx · 2024-09-26T00:40:27Z

0Z SHIPS is out. There is a significant drop in forecasted intensity vs the 18Z cycle. For example 18Z-24 was 112 kts whereas 0Z-18 is now 94 kts. RI probabilities dropped as well.

                                 *                  GFS version                   *
                                 * ATLANTIC     2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST     *
                                 * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                                 *  HELENE      AL092024  09/26/24  00 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120   132   144   156   168
V (KT) NO LAND    75    81    87    94    96    91    85    70    54    40    28   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
V (KT) LAND       75    81    87    94    96    48    33    29    28    27    27   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
V (KT) LGEM       75    81    88    94    97    49    33    29    28    27    27   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  EXTP  EXTP  EXTP  EXTP  EXTP   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A

 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=  19% is   3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  47% is   4.3 times climatological mean (10.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  33% is   4.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  22% is   5.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  12% is   4.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  12% is   2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
    
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:    19.2%   47.0%   32.9%   22.2%   11.8%   12.2%    0.0%    0.0%
    Logistic:    21.0%   20.7%   21.1%    9.6%    1.4%    0.5%    0.0%    0.0%
    Bayesian:    14.6%    7.2%    3.3%    7.1%    3.0%    0.3%    0.0%    0.0%
   Consensus:    18.2%   24.9%   19.1%   13.0%    5.4%    4.3%    0.0%    0.0%
       DTOPS:    40.0%   43.0%   28.0%   21.0%   12.0%    0.0%    0.0%    1.0%
       SDCON:    29.1%   33.9%   23.5%   17.0%    8.7%    2.1%      0%     .5%

Roger Smith · 2024-09-26T00:43:18Z

With regard to situation over GA now, a frontal boundary runs from about 30e ATL to s.w. GA and will become q.s. overnite into Thursday, as hurricane approaches it will be pushed back to the west 20-40 miles and will be focus of exceptionally heavy rainfalls in 10-15 inch range (closer to 5-10 inch warmer air mass over e, s GA).

I think the forecast for ATL, CSG and over towards Warner Robins (where Stormtracker is going, Bonaire is a suburb) needs to be along lines of all hell will break loose later Thurs after intermittent heavy thundershowers now to 18z, intervals of torrential wind-blown rain, frequent lightning, embedded tornadic wind streaks with gusts to 100-120 possible (outside of those, 80-100). It will only die down a bit when remnant low gets past ATL.

That frontal boundary is probably going to stall overnite and edge back west as 'cane approaches landfall. Temps will be 66-69F on west side and 77-81 on east side. Imagine also upsloping all of those frontal dynamics into southern Apps. Nasty.

BoulderWX · 2024-09-26T00:49:04Z

7 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

0Z SHIPS is out. There is a significant drop in forecasted intensity vs the 18Z cycle. For example 18Z-24 was 112 kts whereas 0Z-18 is now 94 kts. RI probabilities dropped as well.

                                 *                  GFS version                   *
                                 * ATLANTIC     2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST     *
                                 * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                                 *  HELENE      AL092024  09/26/24  00 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120   132   144   156   168
V (KT) NO LAND    75    81    87    94    96    91    85    70    54    40    28   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
V (KT) LAND       75    81    87    94    96    48    33    29    28    27    27   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
V (KT) LGEM       75    81    88    94    97    49    33    29    28    27    27   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  EXTP  EXTP  EXTP  EXTP  EXTP   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A

 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=  19% is   3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  47% is   4.3 times climatological mean (10.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  33% is   4.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  22% is   5.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  12% is   4.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  12% is   2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
    
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:    19.2%   47.0%   32.9%   22.2%   11.8%   12.2%    0.0%    0.0%
    Logistic:    21.0%   20.7%   21.1%    9.6%    1.4%    0.5%    0.0%    0.0%
    Bayesian:    14.6%    7.2%    3.3%    7.1%    3.0%    0.3%    0.0%    0.0%
   Consensus:    18.2%   24.9%   19.1%   13.0%    5.4%    4.3%    0.0%    0.0%
       DTOPS:    40.0%   43.0%   28.0%   21.0%   12.0%    0.0%    0.0%    1.0%
       SDCON:    29.1%   33.9%   23.5%   17.0%    8.7%    2.1%      0%     .5%

Praying we continue to see these drops in anticipated max winds and RI, but sadly a storm of this size coming in at this trajectory is going to cause major problems whether it’s a 2/3 or 4.

jburns · 2024-09-26T00:51:23Z

Eyewall has closed. 25NM

wthrmn654 · 2024-09-26T00:52:39Z

Looking at the airmass composite, which is used for seeing dry air, it's still affecting it. Didn't expect to see dry air getting mixed into the equation at all honestly.

----- Current Analysis ----- 
     Date :  26 SEP 2024    Time :   001020 UTC
      Lat :   23:01:15 N     Lon :   86:34:59 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                3.8 / 979.5mb/ 61.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T# 
                3.7     3.8     3.8

 Center Temp : -40.6C    Cloud Region Temp : -57.1C

 Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION 

 Subtropical Adjustment : OFF 

 Extratropical Adjustment : OFF 

 Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION 

 Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC      
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method  

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT 
                   Weakening Flag : ON    
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

beanskip · 2024-09-26T00:53:53Z

28 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

The SHIPS RI probabilities were high at 18Z. We should have the 0Z coming out shortly.

                                 *                  GFS version                   *
                                 * ATLANTIC     2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST     *
                                 * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                                 *  HELENE      AL092024  09/25/24  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120   132   144   156   168
V (KT) NO LAND    75    85    94   102   112   114   102    91    67    46    28   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
V (KT) LAND       75    85    94   102   112    71    41    31    28    28    27   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
V (KT) LGEM       75    85    95   104   112    73    41    31    28    28    27   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  EXTP  EXTP  EXTP  EXTP  EXTP   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=  27% is   5.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  68% is   6.2 times climatological mean (10.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  51% is   7.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  37% is   9.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  20% is   8.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  23% is   5.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  12% is   2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
    
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:    27.2%   67.8%   50.7%   37.2%   19.7%   23.1%   12.5%    0.0%
    Logistic:    35.0%   61.1%   50.3%   30.2%    9.7%    3.1%    0.1%    0.0%
    Bayesian:    47.5%   10.3%   15.3%   28.6%   14.4%    0.8%    0.0%    0.0%
   Consensus:    36.6%   46.4%   38.8%   32.0%   14.6%    9.0%    4.2%    0.0%
       DTOPS:    74.0%   99.0%   99.0%   91.0%   71.0%    2.0%    0.0%    1.0%
       SDCON:    55.3%   72.7%   68.9%   61.5%   42.8%    5.5%    2.1%     .5%

Recon can't seem to find anything lower than 975mb

18z tropical models' pressure at 8 p.m.: 960, 963, 972, 969.

Amped · 2024-09-26T00:54:01Z

1 minute ago, jburns said:

Eyewall has closed.

1 out of the 6 of them has.

jburns · 2024-09-26T00:55:41Z

Just now, Amped said:

1 out of the 6 of them has.

I’m just reporting what the HH Plane sent back.

Amped · 2024-09-26T00:58:54Z

4 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Recon can't seem to find anything lower than 975mb

18z tropical models' pressure at 8 p.m.: 960, 963, 972, 969.

Latest drop was 973mb.

bdgwx · 2024-09-26T00:59:06Z

4 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Recon can't seem to find anything lower than 975mb

973 mb from the last dropsonde.

CoastalWx · 2024-09-26T01:00:24Z

00z early cycle track still west of TLH to ATL, but intensity dropped significantly. More like a high end category 2 borderline 3.

beanskip · 2024-09-26T01:00:33Z

1 minute ago, bdgwx said:

973 mb from the last dropsonde.

Thanks. Point is, it has gone from overperforming to underperforming, at least for now.

Roger Smith · 2024-09-26T01:04:47Z

As to RI potential, 'cane is not quite totally past land interaction and situation will probably explode after 06z and in particular when center is between 25 and 27 N tomorrow. A lot more effective energy inflow can take place as it gets further from land and inflow is coming from tropical Atlantic with Cuba no longer a partial obstacle to inflow. That will soon be the case.

I would look for steady pressure falls after 06z, just slight falls to then.

jm1220 · 2024-09-26T01:05:25Z

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

00z early cycle track still west of TLH to ATL, but intensity dropped significantly. More like a high end category 2 borderline 3.

Would be great if N FL can catch a break and this can’t get its act together so it comes in like a Francine or Idalia rather than an Ida/Laura. The larger size means a large surge but maybe the fast movement can reduce that a little, and the area it’s coming in is generally sparsely populated (even though it’s been hammered the last 2 seasons). Of course the inland fresh water flooding will be a big problem regardless.

SnoSki14 · 2024-09-26T01:06:20Z

This is not going to rapidly intensify, it's far too big. I doubt it'll be much stronger than 100-105mph.

CoastalWx · 2024-09-26T01:06:35Z

I would guess the dry air issue is factoring into models currently.

SouthWake33 · 2024-09-26T01:08:10Z

Co-worker is leaving Raleigh headed for a funeral in Illinois, by car, Friday morning at 6am. His route is up 77 through WVA and across Ohio. Looking at the models it seems he could drive through the storm. Any thoughts on what the sensible weather will be at that point? Flood risks? Wind threat?

.

Radtechwxman · 2024-09-26T01:09:53Z

Not sure if most of you realize that RI wasn't supposed to start till tonight into Thurs. The dry air definitely through a wrench in the core organization. However it's about to enter the very high OHC and even better upper atmospheric conditions.

StantonParkHoya · 2024-09-26T01:10:32Z

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

00z early cycle track still west of TLH to ATL, but intensity dropped significantly. More like a high end category 2 borderline 3.

They’re riding the Alabama line, or even west of it fully in AL

WxWatcher007 · 2024-09-26T01:12:10Z

I’d resist the urge to play the over performing/underperforming game. It can’t intensify at a rapid pace (again) until the next stage of the organizational phase is complete. That takes time and is not linear in many cases.

Amped · 2024-09-26T01:12:15Z

Everyone backing off on RI just as the IR is going beast mode.

SchaumburgStormer · 2024-09-26T01:14:22Z

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’d resist the urge to play the over performing/underperforming game. It can’t intensify at a rapid pace (again) until the next stage of the organizational phase is complete. That takes time and is not linear in many cases.

We’ve seen time and time again where we have sig pressure drops in between recon passes. Certainly can be a quick process.

beanskip · 2024-09-26T01:15:12Z

3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

They’re riding the Alabama line, or even west of it fully in AL

Wow -- even MORE west. Some of those are over Panama City! Looks like the main difference is the turn north (or even NNE) before landfall.

PackGrad05 · 2024-09-26T01:16:07Z

Really banking on that Fujiwara from the ULL. That's the wildcard, IMO.

BYG Jacob · 2024-09-26T01:18:37Z

23 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Looking at the airmass composite, which is used for seeing dry air, it's still affecting it. Didn't expect to see dry air getting mixed into the equation at all honestly.

----- Current Analysis ----- 
     Date :  26 SEP 2024    Time :   001020 UTC
      Lat :   23:01:15 N     Lon :   86:34:59 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                3.8 / 979.5mb/ 61.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T# 
                3.7     3.8     3.8

 Center Temp : -40.6C    Cloud Region Temp : -57.1C

 Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION 

 Subtropical Adjustment : OFF 

 Extratropical Adjustment : OFF 

 Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION 

 Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC      
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method  

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT 
                   Weakening Flag : ON    
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Hard to 100% tell, but that look more like a solid, protected pocket of moisture. Don't see any dry air left in the storm

LithiaWx · 2024-09-26T01:19:52Z

1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

We’ve seen time and time again where we have sig pressure drops in between recon passes. Certainly can be a quick process.

Larger storms have winds that tend to react slowly to fast pressure drops. I am not on the windshield wiper ride on intensity though. I'm here to watch and learn, the GoM can escalate storms quickly. If we have an organized hurricane hitting primo water there is no telling how strong she can ramp up in the short time over water.

wthrmn654 · 2024-09-26T01:22:04Z

2 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said:

Hard to 100% tell, but that look more like a solid, protected pocket of moisture. Don't see any dry air left in the storm

That one wrap/ sliver on the western side where there's lack of clouds would usually imply there's dry air in that location. Atleast that's how it would present itself the last few tropical systems this year.

CoastalWx · 2024-09-26T01:22:09Z

It’s definitely fighting some dry air. Can see it on IR.

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