Major Hurricane Helene

[40/70 Benchmark]

I expected any RI to hold off until early Thursday and that looks well played attm. Still feel reasonably good about the 125mph forecast peak, but will need to evaluate tomorrow if that is too conservative. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, cardinalland said:

that's always true in new england but less so in this setup (even though the storm will be moving fast)

I think it will apply here to an extent. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, cardinalland said:

i imagine highest winds will be southerlies displaced to the east, but there will still be quite strong westerlies and easterlies

Yea northern eyewall will be intense just as it makes landfall. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Everything about this storm is on schedule. It was a 55 kt tropical storm this morning and is a 75 kt hurricane this evening while organizing a core. Once that happens there is literally nothing holding this back from continuing to strengthen, at what pace I’m not sure, but this is a guaranteed 3+. Large core storms aren’t going to spin up 40 kts in 12 hours but this one doing 20 is impressive 

[Kevin Reilly]

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Everything about this storm is on schedule. It was a 55 kt tropical storm this morning and is a 75 kt hurricane this evening while organizing a core. Once that happens there is literally nothing holding this back from continuing to strengthen, at what pace I’m not sure, but this is a guaranteed 3+. Large core storms aren’t going to spin up 40 kts in 12 hours but this one doing 20 is impressive 

However, currently there is dry air wrapping around the west and southwest side as we speak.   Helene will remain in check for now until that dry air mixes out. 

[WxWatcher007]

Spiral band eye in the latest VDM.

[Radtechwxman]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I expected any RI to hold off until early Thursday and that looks well played attm. Still feel reasonably good about the 125mph forecast peak, but will need to evaluste tomorrow if that is too conservative. 

Just wondering if by then the forward speed will be too fast to take full advantage of the good environment 

[marsman]

The Charlotte area radar gap may (continue to) be a problem. I was in the CLT area last week - coming from the immediate Raleigh area, it was sad to see how the storms appeared on RadarScope.

[stormtracker]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m guessing the winds as it moves north may be skewed more east by the time it gets to ATL latitude. At least I hope. 

I'm going to Bonaire, GA.  Flight leaves at 5pm (if it isn't cancelled) landing around 6.  Thoughts for that area?  Never been in a cane before and I'm not even gonna be fake....I hope we get something out of it.

[jburns]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'm going to Bonaire, GA.  Flight leaves at 5pm (if it isn't cancelled) landing around 6.  Thoughts for that area?  Never been in a cane before and I'm not even gonna be fake....I hope we get something out of it.

Dibs on your parking spot.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'm going to Bonaire, GA.  Flight leaves at 5pm (if it isn't cancelled) landing around 6.  Thoughts for that area?  Never been in a cane before and I'm not even gonna be fake....I hope we get something out of it.

I’ll look a little more when I put kids to bed, but first glimpse looks good there. Probably cane gusts.

[George001]

I have been following off and on the past couple of days. A couple days ago I saw the models had the low deepening to the 980s or 970s, but it’s already in the 970s now and is still over a day from expected landfall. It appears that the models drastically underestimated the strength of the low.

[jburns]

3 minutes ago, George001 said:

I have been following off and on the past couple of days. A couple days ago I saw the models had the low deepening to the 980s or 970s, but it’s already in the 970s now and is still over a day from expected landfall. It appears that the models drastically underestimated the strength of the low.

It was the best forecast a couple of days ago. Irrelevant now.  Thats the way it works. You can’t make a forecast four days from landfall and say that’s it and move on.

[dbullsfan]

Maybe not till tomorrow up to the mods but can we get a banter thread up and running?


.

[Roger Smith]

15 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'm going to Bonaire, GA.  Flight leaves at 5pm (if it isn't cancelled) landing around 6.  Thoughts for that area?  Never been in a cane before and I'm not even gonna be fake....I hope we get something out of it.

Yikes, cane will be ramping and passing just to your west by 9 pm to midnite, I would not be too confident flight will take place, is it an airline or charter? I am no coward but I would seriously consider postponing/not going. 

25% chance it goes a bit too far west to produce worst case conditions (which could be SSE 50G75, 6-8" of rain and local tornadic windstreaks).

[Master of Disaster]

I kinda wonder if those are hot towers beginning to fire around the center. 

[JACKASS]

Just now, dbullsfan said:

Maybe not till tomorrow up to the mods but can we get a banter thread up and running?


.

You can start one at any time.

[Radtechwxman]

You know what model has a terrible handle on this now? Hrrr. Can't say I'm surprised. Probably will catch on tomorrow. 

[bdgwx]

The SHIPS RI probabilities were high at 18Z. We should have the 0Z coming out shortly.

                                 *                  GFS version                   *
                                 * ATLANTIC     2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST     *
                                 * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                                 *  HELENE      AL092024  09/25/24  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120   132   144   156   168
V (KT) NO LAND    75    85    94   102   112   114   102    91    67    46    28   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
V (KT) LAND       75    85    94   102   112    71    41    31    28    28    27   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
V (KT) LGEM       75    85    95   104   112    73    41    31    28    28    27   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  EXTP  EXTP  EXTP  EXTP  EXTP   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A   N/A
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=  27% is   5.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  68% is   6.2 times climatological mean (10.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  51% is   7.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  37% is   9.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  20% is   8.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  23% is   5.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  12% is   2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%)
    
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48  |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:    27.2%   67.8%   50.7%   37.2%   19.7%   23.1%   12.5%    0.0%
    Logistic:    35.0%   61.1%   50.3%   30.2%    9.7%    3.1%    0.1%    0.0%
    Bayesian:    47.5%   10.3%   15.3%   28.6%   14.4%    0.8%    0.0%    0.0%
   Consensus:    36.6%   46.4%   38.8%   32.0%   14.6%    9.0%    4.2%    0.0%
       DTOPS:    74.0%   99.0%   99.0%   91.0%   71.0%    2.0%    0.0%    1.0%
       SDCON:    55.3%   72.7%   68.9%   61.5%   42.8%    5.5%    2.1%     .5%

 

[Scott747]

3 minutes ago, dbullsfan said:

Maybe not till tomorrow up to the mods but can we get a banter thread up and running?


.

So far it has been relatively free from a bunch of non-sense, but we're close enough out from landfall of a probable major that anyone can get one going.

[HWY316wx]

The HRRR simulated radar has been horrendous for this first low, just absolutely out in left field.  Nowhere close to verifying.

[andyhb]

6 minutes ago, Master of Disaster said:

I kinda wonder if those are hot towers beginning to fire around the center. 

This picture tells me literally nothing.

[NeonPeon]

8 minutes ago, Master of Disaster said:

I kinda wonder if those are hot towers beginning to fire around the center. 

It does look like the strongest stuff is exploding near or around the eye for the first time, and more symmetrically. I think it's beginning.

[Master of Disaster]

1 minute ago, andyhb said:

This picture tells me literally nothing.

Thank you. Kinda like your reply then? It was a question. Like is that what it is? 

[SnowenOutThere]

4 minutes ago, HWY316wx said:

The HRRR simulated radar has been horrendous for this first low,  is just absolutely always out in left field.  Nowhere close to verifying.

FYP, not only is the HRRR already pretty unreliable it is doubly so in tropical forecasts and instead its better to stick with hurricane models. 

[andyhb]

1 minute ago, Master of Disaster said:

Thank you. Kinda like your reply then? It was a question. Like is that what it is? 

But without any context as to what the picture is showing (and the cutting off of the color bars), how is someone supposed to answer that question?

[David Reimer]

1 minute ago, Master of Disaster said:

Thank you. Kinda like your reply then? It was a question. Like is that what it is? 

"I kinda wonder if those are hot towers beginning to fire around the center."

That is a statement. "Are those hot towers beginning to fire around the center?" is a inquiry. 

[Nibor]

13 minutes ago, Master of Disaster said:

I kinda wonder if those are hot towers beginning to fire around the center. 

This might be better at illustrating your question.

[Windspeed]

So far it has been relatively free from a bunch of non-sense, but we're close enough out from landfall of a probable major that anyone can get one going.

Done.

[MattPetrulli]

1 minute ago, Nibor said:

This might be better at illustrating your question.

First sign of meaningful intensification all afternoon. May finally be go time, and also while constructing a more proper eyewall, maybe it can construct a CDO.