ineedsnow Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 5 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said: That dry air definitely made it into the COC. Degraded it more than I anticipated. Curious what hurricane hunters will find intensity wise. Wondering when Helene will really take off. looks like shes about to take off now.. dry air is quickly diminishing and storms are firing around the eye.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 8 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said: That dry air definitely made it into the COC. Degraded it more than I anticipated. Curious what hurricane hunters will find intensity wise. Wondering when Helene will really take off. Pressure down a couple millibars so dont really know that it was degraded per se Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 22 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Me thinks this is going to be storm porn as it relates to a classic looking eye when it peaks. Getting the look already Yup, if it reaches full potential I would expect that Katrina/rita look in the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 976 extrap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 BULLETIN Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 ...HELENE STRENGTHENING... ...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE FLORIDA BIG BEND COAST SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 86.6W ABOUT 460 MI...735 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Watch east of Mexico Beach to Indian Pass has been upgraded to a Storm Surge Warning. The Tropical Storm Watch north of South Santee River to Little River Inlet has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mexico Beach eastward and southward to Flamingo * Tampa Bay * Charlotte Harbor A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Anclote River to Mexico Beach * Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico including Cozumel A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban province of Pinar del Rio * Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas * Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay * West of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line * Flamingo northward to Little River Inlet * Lake Okeechobee * Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico * Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 85mph 978mb with the 5pm update 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 The NHC intensity forecast now shows an intensity of 115 kt (Category 4) at 24 hours, which is mirrored by several of the regional hurricane models and the SHIPS guidance. It should be noted that additional strengthening is possible beyond 24 hours before Helene makes landfall Thursday evening. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 NHC now forecasting a cat 4 landfall so guess that answers my question of dry air concerns. Ha 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 Hurricane Helene Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 A ragged eye is becoming apparent in visible satellite imagery and has also been observed in recent radar data from Cancun and western Cuba. Based on the improved structure, the initial intensity is set at 75 kt, which is at the high end of the satellite intensity estimates. This is also supported by the earlier Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission, which measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 81 kt. Helene has turned northward (355/9 kt) and is expected to accelerate toward the north or north-northeast during the next 24-36 hours as it moves across the Gulf of Mexico and crosses the Florida Big Bend coast Thursday evening. After landfall, the system is forecast to interact with a deep-layer trough to the west and turn northwestward with a decrease in speed over the Tennessee Valley. The environment appears primed for significant strengthening while Helene moves across the Gulf of Mexico. The forecast track more or less runs along the axis of the Loop Current during the next 24 hours, where ocean temperatures are about 30 degrees Celsius. In addition, Helene will be moving through an environment of low vertical shear and strong upper-level divergence. Some of the Rapid Intensification (RI) indices, particular DTOPS, respond to this environment by indicating at least a 90 percent chance of a 35-kt increase in intensity over the next 24 hours. The NHC intensity forecast now shows an intensity of 115 kt (Category 4) at 24 hours, which is mirrored by several of the regional hurricane models and the SHIPS guidance. It should be noted that additional strengthening is possible beyond 24 hours before Helene makes landfall Thursday evening. Helene is forecast to be a large major hurricane when it reaches the Big Bend coast of Florida. As a result, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend well away from the center and outside the forecast cone, particularly on the east side. In addition, the fast forward speed when Helene moves inland will result in a far inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern United States, including strong gusts over higher terrain of the southern Appalachians. A higher-than-normal gust factor has been indicated in the official forecast while Helene is inland. KEY MESSAGES: 1. A catastrophic and deadly storm surge is likely along portions of the Florida Big Bend coast, where inundation could reach as high as 20 feet above ground level, along with destructive waves. There is also a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the remainder of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula. Residents in those areas should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do so. 2. Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds are expected within the eyewall of Helene when it makes landfall in the Florida Big Bend region late Thursday. Preparations to protect life and property should be completed by early Thursday before tropical storm conditions arrive. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, will penetrate well inland over portions of northern Florida and southern Georgia late Thursday and Thursday night where Hurricane Warnings are in effect. Strong wind gusts are also likely farther north across portions of northern Georgia and the Carolinas, particularly over the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians. 3. Catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, including landslides, is expected across portions of the southern Appalachians through Friday. Considerable to locally catastrophic flash and urban flooding is likely for northwestern and northern Florida and the Southeast through Friday. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is likely, and isolated major river flooding is possible. 4. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected over northeastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico this evening where Tropical Storm and Hurricane Warnings are in effect. Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of western Cuba within the Tropical Storm Warning area, and hurricane conditions are possible this evening within the Hurricane Watch area. Helene will bring heavy rain to portions of the western Caribbean with potentially significant flooding across western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula into early Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 22.5N 86.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 24.1N 86.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 27.4N 85.2W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 32.1N 84.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 48H 27/1800Z 36.1N 86.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 28/0600Z 37.1N 88.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 28/1800Z 36.8N 88.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 29/1800Z 37.0N 88.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tallis Rockwell Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 45 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: This is the furthest east run yet by the NAM, comes in E of TLH The NAM is also showing a sub 870 beast so I don't know how seriously I'd take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 No east shift to my eye 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 Just now, jrips27 said: No east shift to my eye If anything its like 10 miles further west 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 5pm was one of the more dire sounding advisories you’ll hear from NHC 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 35 minutes ago, Hotair said: Very windy and drenching rain in Tampa now. Soil is going to be saturated soon not good That was a hefty band. The precip forecast is pretty modest, but yeah ground is soaked and all the retention ponds and canals are as high as they’ve been all year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard22 Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: If anything its like 10 miles further west Do you know why they moved it further west ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: If anything its like 10 miles further west I'd say even more than that; previous NHC advisory had LF around Apalachee Bay, now the cone center looks to be around Port St. Joe/Apalachicola area, I'd say 40-50 mile west shift? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 It’s probably been said on here but Atlanta to the upstate and Asheville need to prepare for extended outages and tree damage on top of historic flooding. This is going to be one those areas never forget, sadly. Seems pretty locked in at this point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: If anything its like 10 miles further west I just don't get it. Even if they are leaning toward the hurricane models -- none of them pass west of Tallahassee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 The Storm Surge prediction this time yesterday was almost all Greater than 9 feet above ground in our area so great news for Gulfport FL if this is more accurate. We are pretty used to 3 to 6 feet surges. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/152934.shtml?inundation#contents 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 975mb dropsonde. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 17 minutes ago, weatherCCB said: 85mph 978mb with the 5pm update Full update. 4:00 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 Location: 22.5°N 86.6°W Moving: N at 12 mph Min pressure: 978 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsman Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 5 minutes ago, Prospero said: The Storm Surge prediction this time yesterday was almost all Greater than 9 feet above ground in our area so great news for Gulfport FL if this is more accurate. We are pretty used to 3 to 6 feet surges. ... Even better for the Fort Myers area, nearly nonexistent. If I still lived there, I wouldn't be partying yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 Pretty jarring 511 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT... A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm-force winds are expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours * LOCATIONS AFFECTED - Atlanta * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Strong Tropical Storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 45-60 mph with gusts to 85 mph - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: early Friday morning until Friday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 Theres no issue with the nhc forecasts. They are consistent with the hurricane models in terms of track and landfall position. 11 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 6 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Theres no issue with the nhc forecasts. They are consistent with the hurricane models in terms of track and landfall position. nasty track for Metro ATL for winds if the core passes just west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 1 minute ago, LithiaWx said: nasty track for Metro ATL for winds if the core passes just west of the city. Forward speed and size of this thing is going to really surprise some folks far inland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 From an impact perspective would a more Easterly track away from Tally cause less storm surge issues for folks there? As the wind field would be predominantly pushing out to sea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 25 Author Share Posted September 25 5 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Theres no issue with the nhc forecasts. They are consistent with the hurricane models in terms of track and landfall position. Despite the globals, the consensus hasn’t changed. Makes it hard to bet against. Having been through a lot of these now, it’s almost always coming down to the final hours for precise landfall location. That’s just how it goes. Folks just have to be ready for anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 6 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Theres no issue with the nhc forecasts. They are consistent with the hurricane models in terms of track and landfall position. Would love clarification on this -- I'm looking at 12z GFS/12z Euro/12z UK/12z ICon all showing landfall in Taylor County which is now outside or just on the eastern border of the cone. Are they all being discounted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 1 minute ago, LithiaWx said: nasty track for Metro ATL for winds if the core passes just west of the city. Since no model shows the track NHC has I took the euro and extrapolated the winds it has for airports west of Augusta and it would likely be 55-60kt gusts for ATL 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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