Windspeed Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 I think hurricane status by 11 pm or very close to it. We likely will not see any upgrade until recon in situ data confirms since they will be in the system overnight. Also, this is still a broad circulation within the lower surface trough pressure regime of the central American gyre. 990 mb and a broad vortex isn't going to cut it for hurricane force sustained even on the eastern half of the circulation. Even with a significant drop in pressure tonight (985 mb), it will take time for the vortex to tighten and the gradient to sharpen. Also, if the core stays offshore in the NE Yucatán, some frictional convergence may also help to tighten the core and eyewall by that point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 We love to be a serious weather forum people rely on for tropical news but also spend 10 posts (I guess this one included) each time the 3k NAM, which we all know has zero tropical value, spits out a nuke… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 I can finally find the center on Cuban radar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 I see the spin and possible center on cancan radar. https://www.rainviewer.com/radars/mexico.html 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 10 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Recon is finding no wind anywhere close to hurricane force. Also, the surface center is still not even under the convection due to southerly shear. How far off is the COC from that convection right now? Isn't the shear supposed to be dying down now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 OK, by far the coolest site I've stumbled upon overall and spells the storm and actual track in motion, radar, etc tons of info. https://zoom.earth/storms/helene-2024/#overlays=crosshair 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 10 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said: How far off is the COC from that convection right now? Isn't the shear supposed to be dying down now? According to recon and satellite, the surface center is about where the blue circle is. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 1 hour ago, wthrmn654 said: All recon missions are currently done, with teal having issues, I'm not sure there another recon flight till closer to morning I maybe wrong didn't look at the recon plans [code] FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT FOUR - NOAA 49 A. 24/2330Z,25/0530Z A. 25/1200Z B. AFXXX 0809A CYCLONE B. NOAA9 0909A CYCLONE C. 24/2100Z C. 25/0530Z D. 20.5N 85.0W D. NA E. 24/2300Z TO 25/0530Z E. NA F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT G. FIX G. SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE H. NO WRA ACTIVATION H. NO WRA ACTIVATION FLIGHT FIVE - NOAA 43 FLIGHT SIX - TEAL 72 A. 25/1200Z A. 25/1130Z,1730Z B. NOAA3 1009A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 1109A CYCLONE C. 25/0800Z C. 25/0930Z D. 22.1N 86.0W D. 22.0N 86.0W E. 25/0900Z TO 25/1500Z E. 25/1100Z TO 25/1730Z F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR G. FIX H. NO WRA ACTIVATION H. NO WRA ACTIVATION [/code] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said: New Forcast from nhc 120 mph max Given its size it'll be tough to get much stronger. I'm skeptical it'll even get that strong. Maybe more Ike like 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 So if I decoded that correctly next Planned flight isn't for a few hours? Yes, but with flights scheduled through 12z tomorrow, they will likely wait on recon for in situ data for any upgrade unless something drastic occurs in satellite appears such as an eye forming within the CDO. I doubt that's going to happen in the next 12 hours. We probably wouldn't realistically see intensification result in an upgrade until 11AM at the earliest. Helene still has a lot of work to do tonight to organize its core and eyewall evolution. We also have Cancun radar to see this process evolve. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 Satellite really starting to look interesting. Getting nice cyclonic curvature now and convection beginning to wrap more around center instead of on its periphery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 4 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: So if I decoded that correctly next Planned flight isn't for a few hours? It says the next recon is scheduled to take off around 4am EDT, so we won't get more data until morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Given its size it'll be tough to get much stronger. I'm skeptical it'll even get that strong. Maybe more Ike like much larger storms have gotten stronger then 120 mph. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 It says the next recon is scheduled to take off around 4am EDT, so we won't get more data until morning.TEAL 71 had 25/0530Z scheduled on their plan as well. I am uncertain if that still remains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 It certainly continues to look more and more impressive on IR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 Here's a radar loop out of Cancun. The low-level and mid-level circulations look fairly aligned, but a core eyewall band has yet to evolve. Helene just isn't there yet as far as hurricane intensity. I'd say it needs at least another 12-18 hours for the organization to ramp up a core. Perhaps the Yucatán landmass may also aid in the LLC tightening due to friction. Also, it's going to be very close that the LLC doesn't actually cross over extreme NE Yucatán. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 6 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Here's a radar loop out of Cancun. The low-level and mid-level circulations look fairly aligned, but a core eyewall band has yet to evolve. Helene just isn't there yet as far as hurricane intensity. I'd say it needs at least another 12-18 hours for the organization to ramp up a core. Perhaps the Yucatán landmass may also aid in the LLC tightening due to friction. Also, it's going to be very close that the LLC doesn't actually cross over extreme NE Yucatán. I agree and once that core is established I think that's when RI intensification phase will start 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 Outflow becoming better established, CDO becoming more established, sheer appears to be relaxing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 38 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: New Forcast from nhc 120 mph max There are 30 posts on page 19. You made 11 of them. Please calm down and read more. 10 1 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 The MLC has been starting to rotate pretty quickly in the past few frames. Now that the low and mid level centers are more or less aligned, think we are finally seeing the start of eyeball building, though there is a long way to go 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 1 minute ago, tiger_deF said: The MLC has been starting to rotate pretty quickly in the past few frames. Now that the low and mid level centers are more or less aligned, think we are finally seeing the start of eyeball building, though there is a long way to go Quite impressed with how quick it had organized this evening. Satellite appearance looks better each frame. That CDO evolving nicely. Now we need to see this reflected on a radar standpoint with eyewall development. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 Global models are showing the fastest deepening rate tomorrow night through Thursday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 It seems a new recon plane has taken off from Biloxi and is on its way, so we won't have to wait til morning. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 Latest GFS is about 10 mb stronger than the 18z run at landfalll. Around 955mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 Speculation on Twitter is that this thing is well ahead of schedule. Very interested to see what recon finds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 13 minutes ago, Amped said: Global models are showing the fastest deepening rate tomorrow night through Thursday morning. Agreed. That's when it could possibly get over loop current and have really good outflow ventilation 3 minutes ago, MUWX said: Speculation on Twitter is that this thing is well ahead of schedule. Very interested to see what recon finds. Satellite appearance would agree. Main thing now is does center go onto Yucatan or stay over water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 0z HMON initializing @ 991 and then is quickly overdone with deepening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 0Z UKMET: strongest run yet with 977 mb a few hours before a Thu night Apalachee Bay landfall. Keep in mind that this model tends to be conservative this far out. Helene then goes to far NE GA, well E of ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 Hrmm... Granted, it's only been a few hours since I posted the last radar clip, but it does appear a ring of convection is trying to come together. Perhaps an core eye band is evolving now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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