Major Hurricane Helene

[Windspeed]

I think hurricane status by 11 pm or very close to it. 

We likely will not see any upgrade until recon in situ data confirms since they will be in the system overnight. Also, this is still a broad circulation within the lower surface trough pressure regime of the central American gyre. 990 mb and a broad vortex isn't going to cut it for hurricane force sustained even on the eastern half of the circulation. Even with a significant drop in pressure tonight (985 mb), it will take time for the vortex to tighten and the gradient to sharpen. Also, if the core stays offshore in the NE Yucatán, some frictional convergence may also help to tighten the core and eyewall by that point.

[NorthArlington101]

We love to be a serious weather forum people rely on for tropical news but also spend 10 posts (I guess this one included) each time the 3k NAM, which we all know has zero tropical value, spits out a nuke…

[Amped]

I can finally find the center on Cuban radar.

[wthrmn654]

I see the spin and possible center on cancan radar. 

https://www.rainviewer.com/radars/mexico.html

[Radtechwxman]

10 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Recon is finding no wind anywhere close to hurricane force.  Also, the surface center is still not even under the convection due to southerly shear.

How far off is the COC from that convection right now? Isn't the shear supposed to be dying down now?

[wthrmn654]

OK, by far the coolest site I've stumbled upon overall and spells the storm and actual track in motion, radar, etc tons of info. 

https://zoom.earth/storms/helene-2024/#overlays=crosshair

[hawkeye_wx]

10 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said:

How far off is the COC from that convection right now? Isn't the shear supposed to be dying down now?

According to recon and satellite, the surface center is about where the blue circle is.

[Windspeed]

1 hour ago, wthrmn654 said:

All recon missions are currently done, with teal having issues, I'm not sure there another recon flight till closer to morning I maybe wrong didn't look at the recon plans

[code]

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 71        FLIGHT FOUR - NOAA 49
       A. 24/2330Z,25/0530Z          A. 25/1200Z
       B. AFXXX 0809A CYCLONE        B. NOAA9 0909A CYCLONE
       C. 24/2100Z                   C. 25/0530Z
       D. 20.5N 85.0W                D. NA
       E. 24/2300Z TO 25/0530Z       E. NA
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT           F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
       G. FIX                        G. SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE
       H. NO WRA ACTIVATION          H. NO WRA ACTIVATION

       FLIGHT FIVE - NOAA 43         FLIGHT SIX - TEAL 72
       A. 25/1200Z                   A. 25/1130Z,1730Z
       B. NOAA3 1009A CYCLONE        B. AFXXX 1109A CYCLONE
       C. 25/0800Z                   C. 25/0930Z
       D. 22.1N 86.0W                D. 22.0N 86.0W
       E. 25/0900Z TO 25/1500Z       E. 25/1100Z TO 25/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT           F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
       G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR         G. FIX
       H. NO WRA ACTIVATION          H. NO WRA ACTIVATION

[/code]

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said:

New Forcast from nhc 120 mph max

Given its size it'll be tough to get much stronger. I'm skeptical it'll even get that strong. Maybe more Ike like

[Windspeed]

So if I decoded that correctly next
Planned flight isn't for a few hours? 

Yes, but with flights scheduled through 12z tomorrow, they will likely wait on recon for in situ data for any upgrade unless something drastic occurs in satellite appears such as an eye forming within the CDO. I doubt that's going to happen in the next 12 hours. We probably wouldn't realistically see intensification result in an upgrade until 11AM at the earliest. Helene still has a lot of work to do tonight to organize its core and eyewall evolution. We also have Cancun radar to see this process evolve.

[Radtechwxman]

Satellite really starting to look interesting. Getting nice cyclonic curvature now and convection beginning to wrap more around center instead of on its periphery. 

[hawkeye_wx]

4 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

So if I decoded that correctly next

Planned flight isn't for a few hours? 

It says the next recon is scheduled to take off around 4am EDT, so we won't get more data until morning.

[nycwinter]

8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Given its size it'll be tough to get much stronger. I'm skeptical it'll even get that strong. Maybe more Ike like

much  larger storms have gotten stronger then 120 mph.

[Windspeed]

It says the next recon is scheduled to take off around 4am EDT, so we won't get more data until morning.

TEAL 71 had 25/0530Z scheduled on their plan as well. I am uncertain if that still remains.

[AccuChris]

It certainly continues to look more and more impressive on IR


.

[Windspeed]

Here's a radar loop out of Cancun. The low-level and mid-level circulations look fairly aligned, but a core eyewall band has yet to evolve. Helene just isn't there yet as far as hurricane intensity. I'd say it needs at least another 12-18 hours for the organization to ramp up a core. Perhaps the Yucatán landmass may also aid in the LLC tightening due to friction. Also, it's going to be very close that the LLC doesn't actually cross over extreme NE Yucatán.

[Radtechwxman]

6 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Here's a radar loop out of Cancun. The low-level and mid-level circulations look fairly aligned, but a core eyewall band has yet to evolve. Helene just isn't there yet as far as hurricane intensity. I'd say it needs at least another 12-18 hours for the organization to ramp up a core. Perhaps the Yucatán landmass may also aid in the LLC tightening due to friction. Also, it's going to be very close that the LLC doesn't actually cross over extreme NE Yucatán.

I agree and once that core is established I think that's when RI intensification phase will start

[USCG RS]

Outflow becoming better established, CDO becoming more established, sheer appears to be relaxing.

[Floydbuster]

 

[jburns]

38 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

New Forcast from nhc 120 mph max

There are 30 posts on page 19.  You made 11 of them. Please calm down and read more. 

[tiger_deF]

The MLC has been starting to rotate pretty quickly in the past few frames. Now that the low and mid level centers are more or less aligned, think we are finally seeing the start of eyeball building, though there is a long way to go

[Radtechwxman]

1 minute ago, tiger_deF said:

The MLC has been starting to rotate pretty quickly in the past few frames. Now that the low and mid level centers are more or less aligned, think we are finally seeing the start of eyeball building, though there is a long way to go

Quite impressed with how quick it had organized this evening. Satellite appearance looks better each frame. That CDO evolving nicely. Now we need to see this reflected on a radar standpoint with eyewall development. 

[Amped]

Global models are showing the fastest deepening rate tomorrow night through Thursday morning.

[hawkeye_wx]

It seems a new recon plane has taken off from Biloxi and is on its way, so we won't have to wait til morning.

[Sn0waddict]

Latest GFS is about 10 mb stronger than the 18z run at landfalll. Around 955mb

[MUWX]

Speculation on Twitter is that this thing is well ahead of schedule. Very interested to see what recon finds. 

[Radtechwxman]

13 minutes ago, Amped said:

Global models are showing the fastest deepening rate tomorrow night through Thursday morning.

Agreed. That's when it could possibly get over loop current and have really good outflow ventilation 

3 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Speculation on Twitter is that this thing is well ahead of schedule. Very interested to see what recon finds. 

Satellite appearance would agree. Main thing now is does center go onto Yucatan or stay over water

[TPAwx]

0z HMON initializing @ 991

and then is quickly overdone with deepening.

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET: strongest run yet with 977 mb a few hours before a Thu night Apalachee Bay landfall. Keep in mind that this model tends to be conservative this far out.

 Helene then goes to far NE GA, well E of ATL.

[Windspeed]

Hrmm... Granted, it's only been a few hours since I posted the last radar clip, but it does appear a ring of convection is trying to come together. Perhaps an core eye band is evolving now.