Major Hurricane Helene

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

You should provide a basis for claims on why you think the track will be east

Unsubstantiated claims or hypotheses without rationale amount to wishcasting

I think powerful hurricanes recurving a bit faster than modeled when interacring with a trough is pretty tacit, rudimentary meteorolgy.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said:

Is that some dry air on the west side? 

 

I think its atill trying to mix out the deleterious influence of the ULL as the core becomes established. 

[Amped]

Cuba radar isn't showing any sort of an eyewall yet. Probably means there's still multiple and or misaligned centers. High tchp and consolidation are allowing it to deepen anyway.

[MattPetrulli]

986 pass earlier probably just from a mesovort. Pressure came up a bit, but this is probably the beginning of core construction given the temperature spike present. 

[StantonParkHoya]

[SnowGoose69]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think powerful hurricanes recurving a bit faster than modeled when interacring with a trough is pretty tacit, rudimentary meteorolgy.

In this case I feel the closer it is to strong 3 or more upon nearing landfall it’s likely go NNE or NE longer after landfall because the upper low won’t capture it til it’s undergoing major weakening.  So no question the NNW hook is probably delayed more if this comes in as a 4 vs a 2.  As for whether the track prior to landfall is impacted by the strength I’m not sure.  It’s possible if that upper low has tugging power reaching more into the Gulf at 48 hours then maybe a weaker cane will be going more 010 vs 040 at landfall    

[jbenedet]

11 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Talahassee, Atlanta.

[Boston Bulldog]

7 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Pressures dropping at the buoy again fyi, not really sure what the heck is going on. 

Data will often be noisy in a chaotic environment. This is why many different measurements are needed for official statistics. I would recommend saving yourself from eye strain from obsessing over each datapoint, and look at overall trends in pressure

[hawkeye_wx]

6 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Pressures dropping at the buoy again fyi, not really sure what the heck is going on. 

The surface center is wobbling around a bit just south of the convection.  Shear is certainly lower than this morning, but there is still enough to prevent the convection from wrapping over/around the center.

[user13]

2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Talahassee, Atlanta.

Mets game on Thursday is going to be fucked

[Kevin Reilly]

59 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Getting “the look”.  Expect hurricane status by 11:00 am advisory tomorrow.

Center should graze Yucatán but I wouldn’t expect landfall so it should have minimal effect on circulation / intensity.  

Surge on west Coast of FL could be bad especially Tampa vicinity on northward.  Water will pile toward the coast and motion of Helene and associated wind trajectory will prevent it from flowing back out until center is well inland.  

I’d also watch for potential nudges east in TPC track over next several advisories.  Maybe by as much as 50+ miles.

I am going with 5 AM advisory 75-85 mph

[Kevin Reilly]

39 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Is that some dry air on the west side? 

 

Yea that dry air over the Yucatan and NW of the Yucatan could keep this thing in check for now. Also looks like a bit of shear coming across the bay of Campeche heading east bound.

[Radtechwxman]

Now the million dollar question, will the COC pass over Yucatan and if it does how much will this impact the storm? Could allow dry air into core. 

[Kevin Reilly]

10 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

And then where does it go.  North west, north east?  Loop? 

Welp up here in the Mid-Atlantic zippo has come this way due to blocking.  So, my pick is move it north weaken as she goes and the system splits some goes west some goes east as it hits the latitude of say Roanoke Va to Richmond Va. I mean WOW the NAO is sitting at a -2.7 or so that really low and because of it we have drought conditions up here in SE PA.   Here in Media Delaware County, we have picked up .10 since August 15th.  So, Helene will NOT be coming here!

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Yea that dry air over the Yucatan and NW of the Yucatan could keep this thing in check for now. Also looks like a bit of shear coming across the bay of Campeche heading east bound.

Conditions shouldn't be great for about another 30 hours or so.

[Radtechwxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Conditions shouldn't be great for about another 30 hours or so.

Seems like late tomorrow night through Thurs are best conditions for RI. May encounter shear/dry air close to landfall Thurs. 

[SnowGoose69]

18 minutes ago, user13 said:

Mets game on Thursday is going to be fucked

 

Tomorrow will be rained out too.  They're gonna go to a neutral site in alll likelihood though they keep denying it

[Windspeed]

The ULL over the Yucatán is beginning to feel the diabatic influences of expansion above Helene's deep convection and is starting to get squashed. I don't think it will be a real player by tomorrow. Land interaction over the NE Yucatán would play a bigger role to keeping intensity in check until the core lifts further north, unless the core remains further out over the channel, thereby limiting land influences. I imagine slow-to-steady intensification until the core is further north over the loop current and east-central GOM, where divergence aloft will increase and a jet streak will begin with the CONUS system over the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. I do think Category 3 intensity will be reached prior to landfall.

[Daniel Boone]

41 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

In this case I feel the closer it is to strong 3 or more upon nearing landfall it’s likely go NNE or NE longer after landfall because the upper low won’t capture it til it’s undergoing major weakening.  So no question the NNW hook is probably delayed more if this comes in as a 4 vs a 2.  As for whether the track prior to landfall is impacted by the strength I’m not sure.  It’s possible if that upper low has tugging power reaching more into the Gulf at 48 hours then maybe a weaker cane will be going more 010 vs 040 at landfall    

Excellent point ! Makes sense.

[Normandy]

Monster convective burst occurring now.  Get your coffee ready folks tonight is going to be fun

[MattPetrulli]

Quite the PRE event modeled on GFS for NC/TN/GA. Can't post the GIF but I feel like the flood threat so far inland is going under the radar no pun intended.

[Blue Ridge]

55 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Data will often be noisy in a chaotic environment. This is why many different measurements are needed for official statistics. I would recommend saving yourself from eye strain from obsessing over each datapoint, and look at overall trends in pressure

The Nate Silver approach to polling data (read the top lines; toss it in the averages) is practical for so many data sets.

[GoAPPS]

Questions for the meteorologists:

 

1) If Helene comes ashore as a major hurricane versus a weaker system, how would its intensity affect how quickly or sharply it might curve NNW? What is the mechanism?

2) With an upper-level low positioned to the northwest of the storm as it makes landfall, how might the hurricane’s intensity impact its interaction with that low? Could a stronger storm create more resistance to the low's influence, or would it actually get steered more sharply?

[Amped]

12km Nam goes sub 950mb this run. This probably means the 3km NAM will show a wormhole to another dimension.

[Met1985]

40 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

Quite the PRE event modeled on GFS for NC/TN/GA. Can't post the GIF but I feel like the flood threat so far inland is going under the radar no pun intended.

We are keeping a very close eye on that here in WNC.  Even before Helene gets here we are expecting some 4 to 6 inches and some have already gotten close to 3 inches this week already.  This could be historical for us. 

[wncsnow]

2 minutes ago, Amped said:

12km Nam goes sub 950mb this run. This probably means the 3km NAM will show a wormhole to another dimension.

Here you go 

[AccuChris]

12km Nam goes sub 950mb this run. This probably means the 3km NAM will show a wormhole to another dimension.

To your point it puts it at 879mb at its lowest point


.

[downeastnc]

Just now, wncsnow said:

Here you go 

 

Peaked at 877

[hawkeye_wx]

4 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

I think hurricane status by 11 pm or very close to it. 

Recon is finding no wind anywhere close to hurricane force.  Also, the surface center is still not even under the convection due to southerly shear.

[Prospero]

For kicks:

https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap