StantonParkHoya Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Best hope is it does indeed traverse Yucatán to knock it down 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 9 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said: 992.8 now 18z GFS did not reach this min pressure until 6z-12z tomorrow. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 No doubt about it. COC is low located under the deep convection. Classic satellite presentation (time sensitive before sun sets) and outflow is getting better over the eastern semicircle, especially the NE quadrant. Pressures are falling and I believe this is the start of Helene pulling it together. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_MESO1/loop180.html 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 991.8, and Helene is pulling away from the buoy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 It's still a little asymmetrical and can tell western half is dealing with some shear still but the eastern half really starting to get some nice cyclonic curvature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 The HWRF has a good handle on it's deepening 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Question that I've wondered for a while but never asked (and not trying to get too sidetracked but this storm seems like a great example to bring it up with). Why is it with some of these storms, and with Helene being such a big storm are there huge breakups in the rain bands. As a novice onlooker I see the projected radar paths shown by local Mets and the national shows and for example where I am at about 25 miles inland near Tampa it looks like while we get some outer bands and some more as the center comes a little closer due west but a lot of breaks in between the bands so we really don't get much at all on the rain side. whereas with other storms it seems much lusher (I can't think of a better word at the moment) and the rain is more consistent throughout the storm passing. Is this something with the off-shore radar or are there just big gaps in where the rain is outside of the core? Sorry for the newb question but always been curious and figured we aren't into storm mode just yet with this one. Thanks for the feedback Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Recon just got the first fix of the evening. 990.5 extrap 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Storm is near wtere Wilma set a record for rapid intensification in Oct 2005. Paths diverged afterwards (not expecting as fast RI this one, RI will be late Wednesday 26N or so) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Center dropsonde says 991 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gopack42 Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Definitely a noob question here, but can sea bouys measure rainfall rates, etc? I didn't know if bouys closer to shore could tell how much precip is falling to give an idea of what might be expected ahead of time. I do realize that location matters in a storm and things rapidly change, but it'd be interesting to see how much rain falls out at sea. Thanks everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 It appears the second recon plane, which took off from Biloxi a couple hours ago, encountered a problem while flying through the Yucatan Channel, so they had to end the flight and turn back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 18Z Euro somewhat east of the 12Z run 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 24 Author Share Posted September 24 The 18z hurricane models (HWRF, HMON, HAFS-A&B) show just how critical the next few 12-18 hours may be with the track of the LLC near the Yucatan. Each run misses the landmass and all develop a formidable major hurricane as a result. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 This storm's got that look that John in the EPAC just had while it was developing. I'm expecting Hurricane Helene by 11am tomorrow. I also imagine that surge could be a bigger deal for this one than for some others recently, because it has a little more time over water, its larger size/lower pressure, and the interaction that it will have with the trough over the deep south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 That CDO really getting healthy now over center. It's getting more symmetrical, getting colder, and starting to fan out signifying less shear and better upper outflow. We will likely have a hurricane tonight. Big question is does it go over Yucatan and get disrupted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Am I reading the recon right? Down to 986mb? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 4 hours ago, beanskip said: I would actually love a primer on these spagheti plots -- I rarely see much correlation between them and actual individual model runs. What are they? The spaghetti plots are of the most recent run of these models. AVN is GFS, UK is UKMET, etc 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Man this thing is a behemoth, look at that gigantic outer band draped over Jamaica. These CAG storms can bring quite the vorticity payload as they head north. Major rossby wave perturbations likely downstream as Helene rots in the mid-latitudes. I haven’t looked, but this would likely be a “reshuffle the deck” situation for the extratropical circulation across the N-ATL and Europe 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 7 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Am I reading the recon right? Down to 986mb? Definitely legit too. Look at the temp spike/Td drop associated with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 1 hour ago, dbullsfan said: Question that I've wondered for a while but never asked (and not trying to get too sidetracked but this storm seems like a great example to bring it up with). Why is it with some of these storms, and with Helene being such a big storm are there huge breakups in the rain bands. As a novice onlooker I see the projected radar paths shown by local Mets and the national shows and for example where I am at about 25 miles inland near Tampa it looks like while we get some outer bands and some more as the center comes a little closer due west but a lot of breaks in between the bands so we really don't get much at all on the rain side. whereas with other storms it seems much lusher (I can't think of a better word at the moment) and the rain is more consistent throughout the storm passing. Is this something with the off-shore radar or are there just big gaps in where the rain is outside of the core? Sorry for the newb question but always been curious and figured we aren't into storm mode just yet with this one. Thanks for the feedback Sometimes has more to do with the in-situ environment around the storm. If it's in a large, moist envelope with extra forcing mechanisms to help (like the entrance region on a jet or a nearby stalled front), then it's reasonable to expect more/more intense rain bands. Low wind shear environments also favor more/more intense rain bands as less dry air can be advected in to disrupt the vertical advection of moisture via areal convection. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 33 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: 18Z Euro somewhat east of the 12Z run Can you please define "somewhat?" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 The newest recon pass actually found the center jogged a bit southwest since the last fix, so the surface center is not under that blob of convection, but just off the south edge. The dropsonde says 990 mb with 17 kt wind. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 7 minutes ago, beanskip said: Can you please define "somewhat?" ~40 miles E. Nothing unusual this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 7 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The newest recon pass actually found the center jogged a bit southwest since the last fix, so the surface center is not under that blob of convection, but just off the south edge. The dropsonde says 990 mb with 17 kt wind. 986 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 6 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The newest recon pass actually found the center jogged a bit southwest since the last fix, so the surface center is not under that blob of convection, but just off the south edge. The dropsonde says 990 mb with 17 kt wind. Interesting. Wonder if that's cuz of shear or just part of the LLC and MLC trying to organize and align with each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 16 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said: Man this thing is a behemoth, look at that gigantic outer band draped over Jamaica. These CAG storms can bring quite the vorticity payload as they head north. Major rossby wave perturbations likely downstream as Helene rots in the mid-latitudes. I haven’t looked, but this would likely be a “reshuffle the deck” situation for the extratropical circulation across the N-ATL and Europe Let's if it could escape the Yucatan and have a core in tack then it could really take off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 Getting “the look”. Expect hurricane status by 11:00 am advisory tomorrow. Center should graze Yucatán but I wouldn’t expect landfall so it should have minimal effect on circulation / intensity. Surge on west Coast of FL could be bad especially Tampa vicinity on northward. Water will pile toward the coast and motion of Helene and associated wind trajectory will prevent it from flowing back out until center is well inland. I’d also watch for potential nudges east in TPC track over next several advisories. Maybe by as much as 50+ miles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 3 minutes ago, MANDA said: Getting “the look”. Expect hurricane status by 11:00 am advisory tomorrow. Center should graze Yucatán but I wouldn’t expect landfall so it should have minimal effect on circulation / intensity. Surge on west Coast of FL could be bad especially Tampa vicinity on northward. Water will pile toward the coast and motion of Helene and associated wind trajectory will prevent it from flowing back out until center is well inland. I’d also watch for potential nudges east in TPC track over next several advisories. Maybe by as much as 50+ miles. For RI though need that center right under the convective blob and if it's more on the edge strengthening may be more gradual till then. But we are entering the diurnally favorable time for strengthening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 25 Share Posted September 25 15 minutes ago, MANDA said: Getting “the look”. Expect hurricane status by 11:00 am advisory tomorrow. Center should graze Yucatán but I wouldn’t expect landfall so it should have minimal effect on circulation / intensity. Surge on west Coast of FL could be bad especially Tampa vicinity on northward. Water will pile toward the coast and motion of Helene and associated wind trajectory will prevent it from flowing back out until center is well inland. I’d also watch for potential nudges east in TPC track over next several advisories. Maybe by as much as 50+ miles. You should provide a basis for claims on why you think the track will be east Unsubstantiated claims or hypotheses without rationale amount to wishcasting 1 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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