Tatamy Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 28 minutes ago, cptcatz said: The name lists are rotated every 6 years. Every name this year also occurred in those years except for ones that replaced retired names. There was also a Hurricane Helene in 1958 that affected the Carolina coast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Is there any model guidance that shows the forward speed at landfall. This one seems like it gets from 150 miles west of Tampa to almost the GA border in 6hrs. Maybe close to 30mph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curious Onlooker Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 1 minute ago, Tatamy said: There was also a Hurricane Helene in 1958 that affected the Carolina coast. My parents still talked about that one when I was a kid in the 70's (although Hazel was the one that everybody on Carolina coast remembered). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 47 minutes ago, Amped said: Any wobble to the north during the next 12-18 hrs will have a large impact on how much time it spends over the Yucatan. It looks like it’s moving due north quickly at the moment. Worth monitoring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Just now, BooneWX said: It looks like it’s moving due north quickly at the moment. Worth monitoring. Getting tugged north by that blowup on the northern side of the nascent eye 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 4 minutes ago, BooneWX said: It looks like it’s moving due north quickly at the moment. Worth monitoring. I’m probably mistaken but to me it appears as if it is even nudging N/NE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Can we stop with the wobble monitoring? 2 3 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Just now, StantonParkHoya said: Can we stop with the wobble monitoring? Respectfully, every wobble right now could have major impacts downstream. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Just now, BooneWX said: Respectfully, every wobble right now could have major impacts downstream. Yep, a 15 mile jog to the NE now could keep the center off the Yucatan, prevents any potential disruption to the circulation, resulting in a possibly stronger system, etc. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 NHC still splitting the difference between the hurricane ensemble and the other models. I still think they'll end up too far west in the end by maybe 50-70 miles 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 1 minute ago, TJW014 said: Yep, a 15 mile jog to the NE now could keep the center off the Yucatan, prevents any potential disruption to the circulation, resulting in a possibly stronger system, etc. Bingo. Plus it puts the coc East of where the models have this storm located at this juncture. But I promise to keep silent until the recon data arrives. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: NHC still splitting the difference between the hurricane ensemble and the other models. I still think they'll end up too far west in the end by maybe 50-70 miles Agree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 If the coc gets a close shave with the Yucatán but doesn’t make landfall, we could also be looking at friction with the coast tightening up the primitive core. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 10 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Respectfully, every wobble right now could have major impacts downstream. These wobbles are subjective and subject to verification. Eyeballing doesn’t mean it’s real or happening. 3 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: NHC still splitting the difference between the hurricane ensemble and the other models. I still think they'll end up too far west in the end by maybe 50-70 miles For landfall position or also track up the Gulf? Helene will push a lot of water as is, every degree East is impactful for surge up the FL West Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 The satellite presentation suggests to me this is a large system. I know eyeballing is not encouraged in this forum but has anyone here opined as to the relative size of Helene to other gulf storms in recent past? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 4 minutes ago, Hotair said: The satellite presentation suggests to me this is a large system. I know eyeballing is not encouraged in this forum but has anyone here opined as to the relative size of Helene to other gulf storms in recent past? According to the NHC, Helene is in the 90% for storm size. So it's big 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 3 minutes ago, Hotair said: The satellite presentation suggests to me this is a large system. I know eyeballing is not encouraged in this forum but has anyone here opined as to the relative size of Helene to other gulf storms in recent past? Straight from the mouth of the NHC. Just read the 5 pm forecast discussion. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/242058.shtml Of equal importance to the forecast intensity is Helene's forecast size. Helene's forecast radii are at the 90th percentile of major hurricane size at similar latitudes, and therefore storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will likely extend well away from the center and outside the forecast cone, particularly on the east side. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 GFS has less Yucatan interaction this run hence, a stronger system. It's still spinning up satellite vortices like you get extra credit for it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: According to the NHC, Helene is in the 90% for storm size. So it's big Oh I missed that Thanks! here are potential flood impacts to Tampa area from storm surge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Now the guidance that had a TC genesis with a very weak start are rapidly losing betting odds. Right initially…not translating well at the moment… 995 mb, sure, but looks very healthy from a satellite presentation standpoint. I wouldn’t be sticking with the more conservative guidance right now. Balance has shifted slightly in favor of more aggressive now… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 What's the deal with the GFS's depiction of Helene's vorticity, for the next two days, looking like a wobbly planet with a bunch of moons rotating around it? The other models all show one solid ball of vorticity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Pressure down to 993 mb on buoy 42056, and it didn’t get the center 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 18z GFS landfall a little west of 12z Pretty wild it goes from landfall to Atlanta in 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 3 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said: Pressure down to 993 mb on buoy 42056, and it didn’t get the center Weather 87 @TropicalWatcher · 9s A NOAA Buoy just recorded a pressure of 991.6 mb with #Helene , Depening quite quickly. 11m/s = 21 kts of wind -1 mb/10kts of win 993.9 - 2.1 = 991.8mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BYG Jacob Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Just now, Hotair said: Weather 87 @TropicalWatcher · 9s A NOAA Buoy just recorded a pressure of 991.6 mb with #Helene , Depening quite quickly. 11m/s = 21 kts of wind -1 mb/10kts of win 993.9 - 2.1 = 991.8mb 992.8 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 4 minutes ago, Hotair said: Interesting X handle but very relevant observation. Recent downpour gave us 5” in 90 minutes. Cars on Dale Mabry had water over the wheels. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Ten minutes later, the buoy just dropped another full mb, to 992.9. The ball of convection over the center is doing some good work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Curious if dry air will impact Helene at all. Water vapor showing a channel of dry air in Gulf but if it gets organized tonight and really closes off may not matter. Would be more issue if areas remain open and it gets entrained into center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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