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Major Hurricane Helene


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 12Z Euro ensemble: stronger mean than recent runs; many members are still ~980 mb in Atlanta vicinity, which doesn’t bode well for N GA; flooding rain and wind could both be major issues there; watch out Atlanta, Athens, and surrounding areas. This could rival Opal’s effects there. Combo of strong storm, very fast mover, upper level environment, and large size would be the reasons for this very rare event should it materialize.

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LLC is not moving SW anymore.  Bascially stalled and just starting to move NNW.  Thunderstorms are popping up closer and closer to it.  I think the real intensification starts very soon once the storms fire right over the LLC.  Once they do the low clouds get covered up so we will have to rely on aircraft verses visually as to direction.

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10 minutes ago, wkd said:

I love all of the input from hobbyist and non-tropical Mets, but my bet is with the forecasts provided by the mets in the NHC.  In the end they are usually not far off. 

They are among the best on the world.  I have to say though there are many amateur Mets here who frequently catch things that are either missing from the published NHC statements or help to better explain the forecast rationale issued  by the NHC.  Also NHC is great but not always perfect, so it’s always healthy to have a diverse set of eyes and opinions on the data as it evolves. 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NHC cone also catches the NE Yucatán tip. What’s the issue here? I don’t see any wild forecasts from anybody. 

Other than one or two degens betting the house on TPA >CAT 4 +10000 - but those who have been around a minute know to tune them out.

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5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I’m extra worried that the tornado threat from this in especially the NE sector is going to be high. Is that true? Any thoughts? I haven’t heard much about that yet.

Thought about that too being here in the NC Piedmont.

Wonder what effect the upper level low and stalled front will have on that.

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7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

18Z models all west, meanwhile globals and the 12z HMON/HAFS/HWRF Are more east of this

aal09_2024092418_track_early.png

 

I assume you realize it. But for those who might not realize it, these are not the 18Z global runs, themselves, as they obviously haven’t come out yet. These tracks are mainly based on 12Z runs.

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10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I assume you realize it. But for those who might not realize it, these are not the 18Z global runs, themselves, as they obviously haven’t come out yet. These tracks are mainly based on 12Z runs.

I would actually love a primer on these spagheti plots -- I rarely see much correlation between them and actual individual model runs. What are they? 

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2 minutes ago, Hotair said:

I’m told this is the fourth Helene storm of this century.  
 

priors are 2006, 2012, 2018, and now in 2024.  So appears she likes to visit every six years.  Remind me in 2030 - lol  

The name lists are rotated every 6 years. Every name this year also occurred in those years except for ones that replaced retired names. 

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4 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

The name lists are rotated every 6 years. Every name this year also occurred in those years except for ones that replaced retired names. 

Ah makes sense.  I didn’t know that was the cadence.  Thanks!

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Flying back from BWI to MLB by way of ATL tomorrow evening -- Delta doesn't expect travel disruptions for these flights (but other destinations in FL have them).

Made sure to pick seats looking west to try to get a glimpse of Helene. At the very least, should be a decent lightning show.

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