TPAwx Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Can’t get tweets to embed properly, but Andy Hazelton saying the 12z hurricane models will have TDR/Tail Doppler Radar ingested and should be more realistic with outputs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 4 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Significant -NAO patterns are good for displacing climatological patterns. This syntopic interaction and extra tropical transition is common to what is experienced in the northeast; unusual in the southeast… And currently the -NAO is by far the strongest on record for September at below -2.7! The -NAO peak is today and tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 12Z UKMET: E shift and a bit stronger vs 0Z bringing it into Apalachee Bay (instead of near Apalachicola) Thu night; goes to a little E of ATL vs near ATL on 0Z TROPICAL STORM 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 19.5N 83.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092024 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 24.09.2024 0 19.5N 83.5W 1003 37 0000UTC 25.09.2024 12 20.0N 85.3W 998 37 1200UTC 25.09.2024 24 21.1N 86.0W 993 40 0000UTC 26.09.2024 36 22.5N 86.3W 989 40 1200UTC 26.09.2024 48 24.7N 85.5W 987 48 0000UTC 27.09.2024 60 28.4N 84.4W 983 51 1200UTC 27.09.2024 72 33.3N 83.3W 986 41 0000UTC 28.09.2024 84 38.1N 84.1W 995 31 1200UTC 28.09.2024 96 37.5N 90.7W 1000 17 0000UTC 29.09.2024 108 36.4N 91.4W 1003 13 1200UTC 29.09.2024 120 35.3N 92.4W 1007 12 0000UTC 30.09.2024 132 CEASED TRACKING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 6 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Yeah, call me skeptical. Never seen a TC that didn’t begin weakening rapidly upon LF. Even Hugo moving at 25 was a 75-80 mph storm when it got to Charlotte so yeah, likely just a strong TS by the time it got to like ATL or near there but thats still bad with saturated ground. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 I am confused with the systems organization today. That naked swirl is definitely the COC recon found but there is no reason why is should be going south. It doesn’t appear to be part of a larger cyclonic gyre but I guess that is the only explanation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: I am confused with the systems organization today. That naked swirl is definitely the COC recon found but there is no reason why is should be going south. It doesn’t appear to be part of a larger cyclonic gyre but I guess that is the only explanation Both things can be true: that is the COC and it’s still embedded within the larger gyre. I think this will stall for a bit then start creeping north before again turning wnw later today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 What a mess. Lol. LLC running away from convection. Shear definitely still impacting Helene. I'm beginning to think it may not get its act together until the Gulf. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 HAFS-B smacks it well into the Yucatan lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 3 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said: What a mess. Lol. LLC running away from convection. Shear definitely still impacting Helene. I'm beginning to think it may not get its act together until the Gulf. The band also still looking linear, and shows no sign of trying to bend or wrap around the center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: HAFS-B smacks it well into the Yucatan lol Yeah, the HAFS-A has it spending 12 HOURS over the Yucatan! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 The HAFS models are both now much weaker over the eastern gulf, likely mostly due to Helene being de-cored over the Yucatan. A few hours over land is not a big deal, but twelve certainly is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 14 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: HAFS-B smacks it well into the Yucatan lol That time spent over Yucatan led to a 43 mb increase in pressure effective 15z Thursday vs. the prior run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The HAFS models are both now much weaker over the eastern gulf, likely mostly due to Helene being de-cored over the Yucatan. HMON super close to the same thing, but stays just offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 The HAFS B comes in near the NHC track but its very weak, HMON appears it'll come in east of NHC track but way stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The HAFS B comes in near the NHC track but its very weak, HMON appears it'll come in east of NHC track but way stronger Global models have been in the 960s through 980s with the landfall pressure.. HAFS-B is pretty much in line with that this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 16 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The HAFS B comes in near the NHC track but its very weak, HMON appears it'll come in east of NHC track but way stronger HAFS-B makes a late run at Cat 3 strength. Also a nightmare run for Tallahassee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 12Z Euro is stronger at landfall than recent runs with 976 Thu evening Apalachee Bay. It gets to ATL just 8 hours later and weakens only to 981, which would be flirting with all-time record low SLP there. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Euro is pretty much NHC track, it seems to NOT get as close to the Yucatan as the 06Z Euro did 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Euro coming in stronger. Cat 2 (975 mb) at landfall. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 I am expecting an over-performer (RI) and possibly cat-4 by 26-27 N (landfall 29N cat-3). East-west wobble factor (0.2-0.3 deg) is likely to play as max east displacements midnite, and max west mid-day, given moon's present orbital position. Strong n max declination peak at present will decrease over 3 days, it does add tidal range to coming period between F and new. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 1 minute ago, Roger Smith said: I am expecting an over-performer (RI) and possibly cat-4 by 26-27 N (landfall 29N cat-3). East-west wobble factor (0.2-0.3 deg) is likely to play as max east displacements midnite, and max west mid-day, given moon's present orbital position. Strong n max declination peak at present will decrease over 3 days, it does add tidal range to coming period between F and new. Ah good 'ole Rog'...always playing it close to the vest- 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Helene is building, but I guess I'm honestly not impressed yet. I want to see a definitive, well formed low level center and get a handle on any possible Yucatan interaction. It doesn't have as much time as others to organize, so the longer it takes, the better for Florida. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 2 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: Helene is building, but I guess I'm honestly not impressed yet. I want to see a definitive, well formed low level center and get a handle on any possible Yucatan interaction. It doesn't have as much time as others to organize, so the longer it takes, the better for Florida. Given the sheer size...surge will be lethal, but max winds may not ramp up as quickly as some pine for. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 This is mesmerizing to watch in hi-def visible imagery. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Helene currently has an interesting presentation. It has a well-defined center. There is convection up-shear and down-shear, but nothing near the center. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Helene currently has an interesting presentation. It has a well-defined center. There is convection up-shear, down-shear, and everywhere else, except near the center. Basically nothing that will help it strengthen in the near term. Until convection pops over the center Helene going to be steady state or possibly weaken with exposed center. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 It appears in the most recent 3-4 frames, the coc has started a nnw motion. Whether that’s a wobble or an actual trend is too early to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Outflow or arc clouds could be undercutting the center and causing wobbles to the S or SW too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 Significant interaction with the Yucatan is definitely possible here. Obviously that would result in a weaker system in the gulf. Just clipping the tip will have minimal impact, 6+ hours over land is another matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted September 24 Share Posted September 24 I love all of the input from hobbyist and non-tropical Mets, but my bet is with the forecasts provided by the mets in the NHC. In the end they are usually not far off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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