Major Hurricane Helene

[cardinalland]

It’s interesting how many hurricanes have targeted CONUS, despite this year’s failure to meet expectations. If Helena makes landfall at hurricane strength, 2024 will have 4 CONUS landfalling storms. The only years since 1950 to see 4+ CONUS landfalling storms were 1964, 1985, 2004, 2005 and 2020.

[Seminole]

23 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

12z GFS is slightly weaker and NW of 6z,  not very significant differences at this stage
 

Landfall Thursday evening in Big Bend.

ULL a little more west than 6Z run which accounts for the shift NW. 

[GaWx]

12z UKMET: similar to 0Z with landfall just E of Apalachicola ~midnight Thu night moving NNE into S GA then curls back NNW into N GA near or just S of Atlanta

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L        ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N  82.2W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972024

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 23.09.2024    0  16.7N  82.2W     1006            25
    0000UTC 24.09.2024   12  18.6N  82.2W     1004            33
    1200UTC 24.09.2024   24  18.6N  84.6W     1003            34
    0000UTC 25.09.2024   36  19.1N  84.6W     1000            38
    1200UTC 25.09.2024   48  20.6N  85.1W      997            46
    0000UTC 26.09.2024   60  22.8N  85.4W      992            46
    1200UTC 26.09.2024   72  25.3N  85.5W      988            48
    0000UTC 27.09.2024   84  28.5N  85.0W      984            53
    1200UTC 27.09.2024   96  33.2N  83.9W      988            36
    0000UTC 28.09.2024  108  38.1N  85.2W      996            33
    1200UTC 28.09.2024  120  39.1N  91.0W      999            26
    0000UTC 29.09.2024  132  39.0N  92.2W     1003            13
    1200UTC 29.09.2024  144              CEASED TRACKING

[wthrmn654]

The 00z gfs and euro ensembles have done pretty good with the short term track direction compared some of the other models. 

[schoeppeya]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

They initialized it at 17.6N, 82.0W, which is well to the WNW of that. We’ll see what recon finds this afternoon. This from the just released NHC discussion is probably relevant:

“While
some mid-level rotation is evident in visible satellite images,
surface observations and visible satellite images suggest the
low-level circulation remains broad and farther to the southwest.”

It does look like that swirl they initailized on is getting pulled back towards the convection

[Amped]

HAFS B goes sub 900mb FWIW. It would be the first atlantic basin storm to do that since Wilma.

[hawkeye_wx]

1 minute ago, Amped said:

HAFS B goes sub 900mb FWIW. It would be the first atlantic basin storm to do that since Wilma.

Yeah, this isn't something we see every day.  It's likely wildly overdone, but it's neat to look at.

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, Amped said:

HAFS B goes sub 900mb FWIW. It would be the first atlantic basin storm to do that since Wilma.

Peak at 160kts. 

[hawkeye_wx]

All of the very-intense hurricane models have this system well-organized and deepening to 990 mb by 12z Tuesday.  I'd say that is pretty unlikely.

[batmanbrad]

Dr. Cowan just posted one of his excellent video discussions on the tropical tidbits site, highly recommended.  Said he would have another one tomorrow.

[wncsnow]

Euro also showing the predecessor rain event. This is all before the system makes landfall

[Rtd208]

For those in Florida please don't forget to follow your Hurricane Evacuation Plan. Stay safe.

[beanskip]

Pretty nice shift east with the 12z Euro. Probably one of many track changes, but this one hits the incredibly-maligned Taylor County area yet again. 

[Rtd208]

12z Euro

[accountingdawg2012]

15 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Pretty nice shift east with the 12z Euro. Probably one of many track changes, but this one hits the incredibly-maligned Taylor County area yet again. 

That's about the best-case scenario isn't it for a direct population strike with a big chunk of Taylor being the Big Bend wildlife refuge, right?

[beanskip]

3 minutes ago, accountingdawg2012 said:

That's about the best-case scenario isn't it for a direct population strike with a big chunk of Taylor being the Big Bend wildlife refuge, right?

Except for the heart-breaking reality that the few people who live there have been crushed in just the last couple years.

But yes, in the biggest of big pictures, if you could pick a place on the Florida coast for a hurricane to hit, that area or perhaps south of Naples would be it.

[olafminesaw]

5 minutes ago, accountingdawg2012 said:

That's about the best-case scenario isn't it for a direct population strike with a big chunk of Taylor being the Big Bend wildlife refuge, right?

In theory yes, but at this stage shifts to the right increase the chance for surge to be a significant threat for Eastern Florida. A landfall even as far north as Cedar key would be really bad for the Tampa area.

[Seminole]

47 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Pretty nice shift east with the 12z Euro. Probably one of many track changes, but this one hits the incredibly-maligned Taylor County area yet again. 

Taylor County just cannot catch a break. 

[Prospero]

I've lived in Gulfport, FL for 16 years and have never seen a storm surge prediction of over 9 feet here before. That would create a real problem in the Tampa Bay area.

[beanskip]

Good to see the hurricane hunter not finding pressures under 1007 so far. 

[beanskip]

17 minutes ago, Prospero said:

I've lived in Gulfport, FL for 16 years and have never seen a storm surge prediction of over 9 feet here before. That would create a real problem in the Tampa Bay area.

Imagine what more of a direct hit would look like. Sheesh. 

[TPAwx]

23 minutes ago, Prospero said:

I've lived in Gulfport, FL for 16 years and have never seen a storm surge prediction of over 9 feet here before. That would create a real problem in the Tampa Bay area.

Pretty sure it’s a potential scenario and not a forecast yet.  But yes problematic.  Would be a total loss for me.

[purduewx80]

26 minutes ago, Prospero said:

I've lived in Gulfport, FL for 16 years and have never seen a storm surge prediction of over 9 feet here before. That would create a real problem in the Tampa Bay area.

This is the reasonable worst case scenario. Note the asterisked fine print at the bottom. 

[USCG RS]

2 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

This is the reasonable worst case scenario. Note the asterisked fine print at the bottom. 

Part of this is to let Emergency Management know what to prepare for. Ie, reasonable scenario to prepare for, even if this does not come to fruition. 

[Prospero]

6 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Part of this is to let Emergency Management know what to prepare for. Ie, reasonable scenario to prepare for, even if this does not come to fruition. 

Maybe it is a new way they are doing it. We not even seen a Greater than 6 feet prediction before since I have been here.

[Hotair]

17 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Maybe it is a new way they are doing it. We not even seen a Greater than 6 feet prediction before since I have been here.

Im Supposed to have dinner at Pia’s this Friday.  I better call ahead! LoL

Storm Surge would also depend on time of arrival as high and low tides here can mean a lot.  Not to mention we have seen some tremendous flooding in Tampa recently from just persistent rain showers,  

[Amped]

1 hour ago, beanskip said:

Good to see the hurricane hunter not finding pressures under 1007 so far. 

The GFS and the Hurricane models were all initialized way too strong. The Hurricane models were also initialized way too far NW.

[WxWatcher007]

54 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

This is the reasonable worst case scenario. Note the asterisked fine print at the bottom. 

Thanks for reminding people, and not that anything I say matters, but for folks reading—this could be a high impact event, and we have not just posters but probably a lot of lurkers that will be reading this.

Not that anyone should be making decisions based on what’s said here lol (always follow official sources, etc) but for people posting I just ask that we set aside any wish casting, down playing, or non-contextualized posts (for example, posting an image of a hurricane model without analysis) as this comes together. Obviously stuff happens but let’s try to stay on track. 

There’s an opportunity to learn a lot here the next few days about tropical genesis, the development of inner core structures, and how TCs interact with troughing/deep layer shear, and that discussion gets lost in poor posts. 

tl;dr I sound like a prude lol but let’s be responsible and thoughtful in our posts as people will likely be seriously impacted by this one.

[monadnocks]

Well said @WxWatcher007 This board’s impact will be spread to: not just the lurkers but their friends or coworkers who know that someone is interested in weather and might have more information. 
 

 

[Amped]

Icon hits Tampa, Jacksonville and the GA/SC coast pretty hard. Even if it's just a Cat2 with a large wind field that could cause a lot more damage than a Cat4 tracking over Apalachee Bay.