TPAwx Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 16 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: It is likely the very intense hurricane models are organizing the system too quickly in the nw Caribbean. They are predicting a rapidly-strengthening hurricane before it even reaches the gulf. The Euro, on the other hand, has further-delayed the organization over the last two runs. It now has the system only slowly pulling the energy together over the next two days and reaching tropical storm status, 30+ mb weaker than the overzealous hurricane models at the Yucatan Channel. Most of the ex-Euro solutions leave minimal prep and evac time here and thru the panhandle. Unlike the typical CV systems that are on the public radar for a week or more.. This one is only starting to get local attention this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 2 hours ago, bdgwx said: Tomer Burg's super ensemble is focusing a possible landfall in the big bend area of Florida. I love how it snakes between Cuba and Mexico without any land interaction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 9 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Concensus The newer track would effect intensity since the COC would miss the GOM loop current later in the run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 The 6z Euro is still quite weak entering the gulf 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 Correct me if I'm wrong, but if the storm post-landfall does take a looping track like that highlighted in some of the models, wouldn't that lead to some pretty intense inland flooding, especially over S Appalachia and the Ozarks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 23 Author Share Posted September 23 The NHC in the 8am outlook is telegraphing a PTC designation by 11am to issue watches/warnings for Cuba and Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 Pretty tight spread for a storm still in the womb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 Decent spin just west of Jamaica. I’m assuming just the MLC is there or does it appear that a LLC is forming in that area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 6z hurricane models are pretty intense. Some have it a major before entering the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 1 minute ago, 1234snow said: Decent spin just west of Jamaica. I’m assuming just the MLC is there or does it appear that a LLC is forming in that area? The modeled track kind of shows it taking an eastward jog out to near Jamaica then turning back wnw into the Yucatan channel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 23 Author Share Posted September 23 PTC Nine will be designated at 11am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 The weak center of surface spin is currently located ssw of Grand Cayman, northwest of the convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 It seems as if the soon to be intense hurricane John (start paying attention now to the EPaC thread that thing is cranking) is pushing genesis for future Helene further east. Interested to see morning model runs but I’m starting to like a just north of tampa solution 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 5 minutes ago, Normandy said: It seems as if the soon to be intense hurricane John (start paying attention now to the EPaC thread that thing is cranking) is pushing genesis for future Helene further east. Interested to see morning model runs but I’m starting to like a just north of tampa solution That would be a substantial shift east of any current model output. The upper trough is going to influence the track more than anything in the EPAC. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 Recon is on the way. Where any possible low level center is found will be very important to say the least. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaPilot Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 Looking at Satellite this am sure seems the convection is displaced quite a bit east and slightly south of the current center being depicted. Will be interesting to see what Recon finds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
accountingdawg2012 Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 We are going to have to stop booking trips to Orlando in September. This will be year 2 of 2 (we had Idalia last year that came through right before we were scheduled to leave. We were supposed to leave for Orlando on Friday but bumped it up to Thursday to avoid most of the storm but the current modeling may not make that very favorable. Plan was to go down I-95 instead of 75 based on the current track and cut into Orlando via I-4. Does this seem viable or do we need to just be prepared to scrap this trip all together? Thought was to leave home around 5AM and be in Orlando 12PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 5 minutes ago, accountingdawg2012 said: We are going to have to stop booking trips to Orlando in September. This will be year 2 of 2 (we had Idalia last year that came through right before we were scheduled to leave. We were supposed to leave for Orlando on Friday but bumped it up to Thursday to avoid most of the storm but the current modeling may not make that very favorable. Plan was to go down I-95 instead of 75 based on the current track and cut into Orlando via I-4. Does this seem viable or do we need to just be prepared to scrap this trip all together? Thought was to leave home around 5AM and be in Orlando 12PM. I'm supposed to in Florida on Thursday, flying down that evening. Destin, FL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
accountingdawg2012 Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 Just now, stormtracker said: I'm supposed to in Florida on Thursday, flying down that evening. Destin, FL Yeah we are supposed to be taking the kids to Disney. I'm not concerned about being there with any effects from storm bands at the hotel since Disney does a pretty good job in securing their facilities. I'm more concerned about getting there. I think the I-75 route is absolutely a no-go but right now I-95 seems doable if we leave early enough. I am glad we live in driving distance and don't have to fly though because a flight though that would be absolutely not fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'm supposed to in Florida on Thursday, flying down that evening. Destin, FL All these northern tourists cluttering up the storm discussion. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 82.0W ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSW OF GRAND CAYMAN ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Rio Lagartos to Tulum, and a Hurricane Watch from Cabo Catoche to Tulum. The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Isle of Youth, Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and a Hurricane Watch for Pinar del Rio. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban province of Pinar del Rio A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico * Cuban provinces of Artemisa, and Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 82.0 West. The system is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by a faster northward or north-northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and continue strengthening as it moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 Already forecasting 110 mph! Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024 1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. While some mid-level rotation is evident in visible satellite images, surface observations and visible satellite images suggest the low-level circulation remains broad and farther to the southwest. Nonetheless, the system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next day or two, and it is likely to bring tropical storm conditions to land areas within the next 36 to 48 hours. Therefore, the NHC is initiating Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories for this disturbance. The initial motion is quite uncertain given the current lack of organization, but the best estimate is northward at about 5 kt. A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected during the next day or so, with the center passing through the Yucatan Channel and into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Thereafter, the system is forecast to accelerate northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico within the flow between a digging deep-layer trough over the central United States and a ridge over the western Atlantic. This motion should bring the center of the system toward the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday. The track guidance agrees reasonably well on this scenario, and the initial NHC forecast lies near the simple and corrected consensus aids. Since the disturbance currently lacks a well-defined center, users are reminded that the average forecast track uncertainty is larger in these situations, and future track adjustments may be required. Given the large size of the tropical-storm-force wind field and fast forward speed that is forecast, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will likely extend well away from the center, particularly to the east of the system. While the system is currently broad and not well organized, the models suggest a more well-defined center should develop during the next day or so. Once the system becomes better organized and develops an inner core, the environmental and oceanic conditions appear favorable for significant strengthening. In fact, the DTOPS statistical guidance shows a 95 percent chance of a 65-kt increase in intensity during the next 72 h, and the hurricane regional models highlight the potential for strengthening to major hurricane intensity. Thus, the NHC forecast shows significant strengthening while the system moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with a 95-kt intensity in 72 h. While this forecast is aggressive, it lies near or slightly below the consensus aids, and future adjustments may be necessary. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 17.6N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 24/0000Z 18.6N 82.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 24/1200Z 19.5N 83.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 20.6N 85.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 22.1N 86.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 24.2N 86.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 27.1N 85.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 34.0N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 28/1200Z 38.5N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Reinhart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 Some pretty obvious westerly lower level flow on visible satellite. Looks like maybe centered under the convection at 80w 17N? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monadnocks Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 14 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'm supposed to in Florida on Thursday, flying down that evening. Destin, FL My partner is supposed to fly out of Tallahassee on Friday morning. Work related travel so not too much choice about when to leave. ☹️ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 3 minutes ago, schoeppeya said: Some pretty obvious westerly lower level flow on visible satellite. Looks like maybe centered under the convection at 80w 17N? They initialized it at 17.6N, 82.0W, which is well to the WNW of that. We’ll see what recon finds this afternoon. This from the just released NHC discussion is probably relevant: “While some mid-level rotation is evident in visible satellite images, surface observations and visible satellite images suggest the low-level circulation remains broad and farther to the southwest.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 23 minutes ago, TPAwx said: All these northern tourists cluttering up the storm discussion. Hey, trust me, I don't wanna go! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 12z GFS is slightly weaker and NW of 6z, not very significant differences at this stage Landfall Thursday evening in Big Bend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 GFS is pretty much the worse scenario for the southern Apps and Blue Ridge for significant flash flooding, only saving grace is how quickly it moves/dissipates . I'm also looking at some signs of a predecessor rain event somewhere in GA, TN, NC or Alabama. Models are hinting at this too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 2 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: What happened to 8L? Looking at one of the sites I use, Gordon was 07L a potential tropical cyclone that never formed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted September 23 Share Posted September 23 2 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Lol OK so if I understand it correctly cyclones have a # and ptcs have numbers So if say the ptc is #5 if it becomes a cyclone and it's say the 6th one of the season it would be 06L (name) Gotcha PTC 9 will become Helena 09L, PTC 8 never became a tropical storm so 08L is unused this year for tropical storms… hope that clears things up! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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