Major Hurricane Helene

[USCG RS]

While the SSTs are very favorable, shear is not. 

So until we start seeing this thing get it's act together and the shear relaxes, high end probabilities should be considered just that, a low potential high end. 

[CheeselandSkies]

That 18z ICON track is almost a carbon copy of Hurricane Idalia. I mean if you put the two on top of each other you would barely notice a difference.

Are you "DunedinDave" on Storm2K or are you just copy/pasting others' posts from there?

Sent from my Pixel 8 using Tapatalk

[Amped]

The GFS and euro agree on the track and 500mb pattern now. 

[Jebman]

Look, I don't want this storm to hit anyone. That said, I am so glad we have a nice hot ridge protecting Texas!

[Jebman]

5 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

 

 

Moves so fast that it remains in the high 960s/low 970s over Atlanta.

Fast mover means much less chance for excessive freshwater flooding.

[Jebman]

Sorry. I forgot those. 

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

While the SSTs are very favorable, shear is not. 

So until we start seeing this thing get it's act together and the shear relaxes, high end probabilities should be considered just that, a low potential high end. 

I think the ceiling for this is less related to shear and more to how organized it can become before reaching the Gulf. While the environment in the Gulf doesn’t look pristine from an intensification standpoint, I think some of the higher end potential (not necessarily the GFS solutions but rather the middle ground between GFS/Euro) can be realized if this isn’t a broad gyre type system in that timeframe. 

The loop current in the Gulf is awfully impressive and I don’t know if moisture is going to be a huge inhibitor. The impact of shear could also be lessened if it’s aligned with storm motion. Just my .02.

[GaWx]

18Z GEFS mean: even further west near Pensacola, which is 50 miles W of 12Z, and then N into AL

[purduewx80]

8 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Fast mover means much less chance for excessive freshwater flooding.

Its interaction with the upper low will cause severe flooding. 

[USCG RS]

25 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think the ceiling for this is less related to shear and more to how organized it can become before reaching the Gulf. While the environment in the Gulf doesn’t look pristine from an intensification standpoint, I think some of the higher end potential (not necessarily the GFS solutions but rather the middle ground between GFS/Euro) can be realized if this isn’t a broad gyre type system in that timeframe. 

The loop current in the Gulf is awfully impressive and I don’t know if moisture is going to be a huge inhibitor. The impact of shear could also be lessened if it’s aligned with storm motion. Just my .02.

I can definitely see what you are saying. Organized storms tend to be resilient as of late, especially all other factors considering. 

[beanskip]

HAFS suite running for first time off Invest 97. 
HAFS-A is 953 mb with a 30-A area landfall (between FWB and Panama City). 
HAFS-B is 960 mb and landfalls around Mexico Beach.  

[beanskip]

Wait, haven’t I seen this movie before? GFS and hurricane models near Panama City and Euro way east with a Taylor County hit? 

[jburns]

13 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said:

You can keep reading but your posting has been blocked for one week from today. If the storm dissipates sooner I may allow you to resume at that time. I’m sorry, but you were fairly warned.

Please do keep reading. You can learn a lot that will improve your future posts.  

[batmanbrad]

HWRF (also now using Invest 97) bottoms out around 926mb at hour 78 in the eastern Gulf, heading generally NNE towards Apalachee Bay area.

edit:  comes ashore near the Apalachee Bay region midday 9/26 in the low/mid 930's

[BoulderWX]

1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Are you "DunedinDave" on Storm2K or are you just copy/pasting others' posts from there?

Sent from my Pixel 8 using Tapatalk
 

Honestly, this is on the Mods at this point. It’s one thing to let a few random posts go, but to allow him to continue posting, degrades any sense of meteorological posts. It’s getting embarrassing for the forum at large. 

[gopack42]

I understand there is tons of uncertainty in track and intensity for the approach to the gulf coast, but let's assume it comes on shore and tracks up the Appalachians (or close to it).  My question is, up in the SC and NC mountains at higher elevations (3500 ft and higher), do storms typically have stronger wind impact for higher elevations even though the cyclone is winding down post landfall?  I wasn't sure if elevation correlates to stronger winds even as the storm winds down.  Thanks very much for any knowledge on this.  

[jburns]

8 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Honestly, this is on the Mods at this point. It’s one thing to let a few random posts go, but to allow him to continue posting, degrades any sense of meteorological posts. It’s getting embarrassing for the forum at large. 

I took care of this 9 minutes before your post. How embarrassing for you.  

[MattPetrulli]

Maybe windshield wiper back to the west a bit on 00z spaghettis?

[BooneWX]

19 minutes ago, gopack42 said:

I understand there is tons of uncertainty in track and intensity for the approach to the gulf coast, but let's assume it comes on shore and tracks up the Appalachians (or close to it).  My question is, up in the SC and NC mountains at higher elevations (3500 ft and higher), do storms typically have stronger wind impact for higher elevations even though the cyclone is winding down post landfall?  I wasn't sure if elevation correlates to stronger winds even as the storm winds down.  Thanks very much for any knowledge on this.  

As a lifelong western North Carolinian, the short answer is yes. Obviously there are lots of variables but the mountains - particularly the ridges above 4k ft will experience a high wind event. The bigger threat will be the extreme rainfall/ landslide risk if the setup holds. This is never a favorable track for the southern Appalachian region. 

[Met1985]

25 minutes ago, gopack42 said:

I understand there is tons of uncertainty in track and intensity for the approach to the gulf coast, but let's assume it comes on shore and tracks up the Appalachians (or close to it).  My question is, up in the SC and NC mountains at higher elevations (3500 ft and higher), do storms typically have stronger wind impact for higher elevations even though the cyclone is winding down post landfall?  I wasn't sure if elevation correlates to stronger winds even as the storm winds down.  Thanks very much for any knowledge on this.  

As @BooneWXso greatly explained yes. Personally I live at 3500' and have witnessed this first hand. Yes the wind can be menacing but with the possibility of the way the models show the storm coming in the big risk is flooding and having the mountains really just ring out every bit of moisture crossing the mountains.  That's why we usually overperform in situations like this. 

[Windspeed]

I think the ceiling for this is less related to shear and more to how organized it can become before reaching the Gulf. While the environment in the Gulf doesn’t look pristine from an intensification standpoint, I think some of the higher end potential (not necessarily the GFS solutions but rather the middle ground between GFS/Euro) can be realized if this isn’t a broad gyre type system in that timeframe. 
The loop current in the Gulf is awfully impressive and I don’t know if moisture is going to be a huge inhibitor. The impact of shear could also be lessened if it’s aligned with storm motion. Just my .02.

SSTs are plenty warm for high MPI. As has been reiterated, size and timing for the broader surface circulation to spawn a tighter vortex in the NW Caribbean/NE Yucatán/Channel/WCuba and placement of mid-to-upper trough/ULL are the biggest factors on intensity. A few hundred miles could be a huge factor on the shear axis ranging from a sheared TC to a well-ventilated one. Obviously, the uptick in intensity ranges on the OPs and ensemble suites are troubling, but in this time-frame, pretty much anything is still on the table. There are still uncertainties on ridge vs upper trough placement as well; therefore, residents in the western Peninsula still need to watch closely regardless if there has been more focus resolved on the Panhandle region.

[gopack42]

5 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

As a lifelong western North Carolinian, the short answer is yes. Obviously there are lots of variables but the mountains - particularly the ridges above 4k ft will experience a high wind event. The bigger threat will be the extreme rainfall/ landslide risk if the setup holds. This is never a favorable track for the southern Appalachian region. 

Thank you for your reply.  I have to admit that I asked for a selfish reason due to me recently moving to Beech Mountain full time a couple weeks ago.  I was curious as to what to expect and prepare for (power outages, flooding, etc).  As you know, Beech is over 5k ft elevation, so I figured it could potentially get rough here.  Thank you again 

[Met1985]

1 minute ago, gopack42 said:

Thank you for your reply.  I have to admit that I asked for a selfish reason due to me recently moving to Beech Mountain full time a couple weeks ago.  I was curious as to what to expect and prepare for (power outages, flooding, etc).  As you know, Beech is over 5k ft elevation, so I figured it could potentially get rough here.  Thank you again 

You should follow us in the mountains thread then. This currently looks like it could be significant for our area but a lot can and will happen from now to then. Check back in with this thread and you'll get all the info you need on this tropical system. 

[gopack42]

1 minute ago, Met1985 said:

As @BooneWXso greatly explained yes. Personally I live at 3500' and have witnessed this first hand. Yes the wind can be menacing but with the possibility of the way the models show the storm coming in the big risk is flooding and having the mountains really just ring out every bit of moisture crossing the mountains.  That's why we usually overperform in situations like this. 

Interesting.  I was here at Beech for the NC landfall last week, and things weren't that bad here other than some gusty winds and light/moderate rain off and on.  I was thinking this gulf storm could be far more impactful if it's a higher end storm.  

[gopack42]

Just now, Met1985 said:

You should follow us in the mountains thread then. This currently looks like it could be significant for our area but a lot can and will happen from now to then. Check back in with this thread and you'll get all the info you need on this tropical system. 

Will do!  Thank you. 

[Met1985]

Just now, gopack42 said:

Interesting.  I was here at Beech for the NC landfall last week, and things weren't that bad here other than some gusty winds and light/moderate rain off and on.  I was thinking this gulf storm could be far more impactful if it's a higher end storm.  

If you want to continue this conversation in the mountains thread I'll be glad to talk about the differences.

[bdgwx]

Landfall is expected around 96'ish hours. Tomer Burg's super ensemble probability density puts landfall near the Saint Joseph Bay and Saint Vincent Sound. This forecast is about 12 hours old now. I believe the UKMET is missing from the ensemble at least on this cycle, but the 12Z deterministic run is right now the center of the high probability corridor. 

[tiger_deF]

1 hour ago, jburns said:

You can keep reading but your posting has been blocked for one week from today. If the storm dissipates sooner I may allow you to resume at that time. I’m sorry, but you were fairly warned.

Please do keep reading. You can learn a lot that will improve your future posts.  

It’s tough in a way since I recognize in “said poster” a little bit of what I saw in myself when I first started tracking weather; boundless enthusiasm, heat-of-the-moment that nowadays I look on as barely better than spam, and inexperience.

 

Unfortunately the inability to read the room and understand that clogging up thread after thread with the same sort of post is a disruption that brings down the quality of discussion and information isn’t acceptable, especially during peak season.

 

Early in the first years I was into weather, there was a poster on a forum I frequented with the username Tasmanian (Taz). His posts were somewhat similar in manner but far less spammy and engaged critical conversation and insight. He was a legend of the forum, and it’s not too late for “said poster” to learn a lesson.

 

Anyhow, going to be an active few days, and if the 18z GFS is correct potentially an active few weeks. 97L appears to be setting up as a Michael redux (potentially weaker and larger), but these systems are always full of surprises.

[NavarreDon]

Definitely have my eyes towards this situation as should anyone from Mississippi to Sarasota. So many variables at this point. Here is the first cone of PT 14 (Michael) just to drive that point home.




.

[canderson]

4 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

Definitely have my eyes towards this situation as should anyone from Mississippi to Sarasota. So many variables at this point. Here is the first cone of PT 14 (Michael) just to drive that point home.




.

A bit interesting they don’t have this reaching hurricane status anywhere in the gulf on this map.