GaWx Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 6Z Euro-AI shifted ~50 miles NW of its 0Z with it coming in to the middle of the Big Bend vs the far rt portion of it on the 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 Eps still has a lot of members near Tampa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 It is not finished, but the 12Z Icon is much faster and well E of its prior runs with it missing the Yucatan to the E for the first time. It look like it is going to be similar to the 0Z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 16 minutes ago, Amped said: Eps still has a lot of members near Tampa. Not seeing that. 06z has two members anywhere on the west coast of florida. All others are big bend and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 This cluster product valid on Thursday evening shows huge differences in where the cut-off is, which is unfortunate but to be expected in the blocking regime we're in now. It takes the Canadian, GFS and Euro ensembles, groups their 500 mb depictions into four similar patterns (the main 4 panel with colors) and also displays the ensemble mean on the lower left (upper low over northern AR). No one cluster is more likely than the others at this point, but watching trends in where the mean is will be important. The shading is just where the cluster has higher or lower heights than the mean. The upper low is predicted to be anywhere from the Ozarks to St. Louis to central OK, with cluster 2 showing something more akin to the EC-AIFS, with a more progressive cut-off and ridging in the Plains. There are really big differences with troughing over New England, too. Lots to sort out here still. These are the parts that will have some influence on the extent of rainfall to the west, its track/speed in the northeastern Gulf and especially the jet configuration for either shear or ventilation. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 The 12Z Icon is much quicker than its prior runs and is now much closer to the timing of the consensus. Although much further E early, this much quicker movement allows it to be captured by the cutoff H5 low and it then moves N to near Panama City at 984 mb late Thu night followed by a NNW move through AL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 Euro ensemble pressure matrices for Tampa and Pensacola, off the 00z run (not available on 06z). Looks to be angling at more of a panhandle/ big bend area landfall, although not super strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 12Z GFS just slightly E of 6Z but well NW of 0Z with ~942 mb near Panama City moving N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 That's a good bit east of Panama City. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 2 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: That's a good bit east of Panama City. Right on top of my casa at St. George Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 TT 12Z GFS SLPs ~8 mb lower than my source Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 7 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: That's a good bit east of Panama City. obviously just one model run, but wow... 935 only 4.5 days out is nothing to sneeze at... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 16 minutes ago, nvck said: obviously just one model run, but wow... 935 only 4.5 days out is nothing to sneeze at... Fortunately Icon, CMC, and UKMET are much weaker though UKMET often is too weak this far out. 12Z UKMET: ~12 hours earlier landfall (Thu night) than and ~75 miles W of 0Z pretty close to Apalachicola at ~987 mb vs ~993 mb on 0Z: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 17.9N 85.5W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 24.09.2024 48 18.0N 86.0W 1003 29 0000UTC 25.09.2024 60 18.2N 85.5W 1002 30 1200UTC 25.09.2024 72 20.3N 86.2W 998 40 0000UTC 26.09.2024 84 21.7N 86.2W 995 39 1200UTC 26.09.2024 96 24.0N 86.0W 992 44 0000UTC 27.09.2024 108 27.4N 85.1W 989 56 1200UTC 27.09.2024 120 31.3N 84.7W 987 39 0000UTC 28.09.2024 132 36.4N 84.7W 992 21 1200UTC 28.09.2024 144 40.5N 87.2W 996 34 0000UTC 29.09.2024 156 42.3N 91.4W 1000 21 1200UTC 29.09.2024 168 39.0N 94.3W 1004 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 GEFS: 12Z mean has a significant shift NW vs prior runs with many more going through AL vs earlier runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 22 Author Share Posted September 22 Euro won’t be anywhere as strong as the outlier GFS, but it will come in stronger than the 00z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Euro won’t be anywhere as strong as the outlier GFS, but it will come in stronger than the 00z run. 12Z Euro 982 Thu evening in vicinity of Apalachicola; Atlanta Fri AM at 992 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 12Z EPS: mean landfall Thu night near Apalachicola and then it moves N fairly close to GA/AL border; many either W half of lower GA or E half of lower AL; mean a bit E of 6Z, which was in E AL and perhaps very slightly E of 0Z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 Starting to get a big westerly wind surge coming off Nicaragua. Gyre is starting to crank now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 NWS-WPC has a low on the map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 1 hour ago, GaWx said: 12Z EPS: mean landfall Thu night near Apalachicola and then it moves N fairly close to GA/AL border; many either W half of lower GA or E half of lower AL; mean a bit E of 6Z, which was in E AL and perhaps very slightly E of 0Z Very reasonable solution IMO. Can't see it land falling much further west but some room for eastward adjustments. EURO intensity looks reasonable as well. Only game in town. MDR is about as quiet as it gets for this time of year. Classic CV tracker threats are done. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 7 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Bro! Who knows if Helene will mog Michael to Mumbai given the current conditions indicated on SHIPS? Why are you still up to this cringe BS? 10 4 2 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 14 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Bro! Who knows if Helene will mog Michael to Mumbai given the current conditions indicated on SHIPS? Honestly, do you want to be banned? 25 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 14 minutes ago, Rjay said: Honestly, do you want to be banned? I was wondering if I was missing something but I see now I'm not. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 1 minute ago, ldub23 said: I might wait for a center to form first before RI begins Yeah that’s still a giant mess regardless of how deep the convection is. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Yeah that’s still a giant mess regardless of how deep the convection is. Satellite loop shows that a low lvl circulation is already going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 NAM model (good for large-scale features and 500MB steering) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 Intensity of this is going to depend on trough interaction. Depending on how the cut off / trough develops/digs into the Mississippi Valley it will either increase the shear and make for a more lopsided system or it could help to ventilate it if enough separation takes place. Either way I'm still thinking on the order of Francine type intensity as I suggested yesterday. The cut off / trough will also impact track after landfall. Once inland system could get pulled N to NW towards the Mississippi Valley or be allowed to slide NNE or NE towards SC/NC. Lots to work out over the next couple of days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 3 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: That 18z ICON track is almost a carbon copy of Hurricane Idalia. I mean if you put the two on top of each other you would barely notice a difference. This 18Z Icon is well E of the 12Z, showing that there’s still (not surprisingly) a lot of uncertainty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 22 Author Share Posted September 22 6 minutes ago, GaWx said: This 18Z Icon is well E of the 12Z, showing that there’s still (not surprisingly) a lot of uncertainty. It may be another day or two until things are settled. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 22 Share Posted September 22 19 minutes ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: That 18z ICON track is almost a carbon copy of Hurricane Idalia. I mean if you put the two on top of each other you would barely notice a difference. You have already attracted attention from multiple mods with your non-sensible posts. Enough. Think more and post a whole lot less. If I have to restrict your posting I will do so until 97L has peaked, made landfall, and dissipated into a mid-level trough. 12 3 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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