Weather Will Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 Well we just got NAM'D....what could possibly go wrong now? WB 6Z NAM (rain moves in by Tuesday evening) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 16 Author Share Posted September 16 Latest from NWS Sterling SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Rain showers and the isolated thunderstorm threat will continue and likely spread north and east during the day Tuesday as the low pressure system moves into the western Carolinas and becomes nearly stationary. Rain showers and isolated thunder could linger Tuesday night through midweek, including the Wednesday night timeframe. Average rain amounts Monday night through Wednesday night could average one half to one inch across the northern 2/3rds of the region, while the southern 1/3rd, including along and east of the Blue Ridge could encounter rain amounts in the one and a half to as much as 3 inches of rain. Local amounts could reach up to 5 or 6 inches of rain depending on the model and the track and movement of the low pressure system. A lot may change within the forecast as the forecast track becomes more apparent. Continue to monitor our forecast locally as well as the National Hurricane Center. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Uncertainty remains high for the extended period due to a blocky upper level pattern. For Thursday and Friday, any remnant of the previous coastal low will be weakened if not dissipated, and the mid/upper low may also weaken and open into a trough. However, secondary low pressure development could take place off the coast. Shower chances will persist through this period thanks to the upper trough, but may be comparably lower Friday as forcing weakens and the trough axis perhaps aligning just east of the area. Temperatures will be near normal. For Saturday and Sunday, ridging will amplify northwest of the area while a trough moves across the Canadian Maritimes. This combination may result in another upper low closing off over the southeast US. At the surface, a backdoor front will push toward the region, but lose definition as it encounters a staunch coastal front along the southeast coast. Strong high pressure over New England may result in a good southward push however. It`s still unclear whether drier air will be able to work into the area behind the front, or if clouds and continued light rain chances persist. Temperatures will trend below normal however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 Well we just got NAM'D....what could possibly go wrong now? WB 6Z NAM (rain moves in by Tuesday evening)Gfs says no. Euro delays precip till about 9pm Tuesday Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 NHC notes that the GFS is a little fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 16 Author Share Posted September 16 Well , I jinxed it, glad this is not a snowstorm....WB 6Z EURO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 24 hours from the start and I'm not sure if I'm getting 4" of rain or no rain at all. Great warmup for winter lol 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 29 minutes ago, dailylurker said: 24 hours from the start and I'm not sure if I'm getting 4" of rain or no rain at all. Great warmup for winter lol one the cut backs start happening right before game time...its hard to recover 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: Well , I jinxed it, glad this is not a snowstorm....WB 6Z EURO. Just warming up for nina suppression during the winter, lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 Wait if this is a winter warmup then we should test out the 2nd thread rule at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 Hires FV3 and 3k NAM are like inverses of each other as to where the heavy rain goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 Guys its not too late to use the second thread rule! We can bring this back 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 26 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Guys its not too late to use the second thread rule! We can bring this back Think you might be on to something! GFS is downright painful. You know it's dry when we're starting threads about a little rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 26 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: So what caused this to near totally collapse over the past day? And why is it that these drying trends never reverse even if there's still enough time to do so? It seems like there were a couple of issues with the model forecasts for this one. First, at 5+ days out there was uncertainty about where the "landfall" of the low would be, so some of the runs had us getting significant precipitation that was closely associated with the low. However, when we got closer it became obvious that the low was going to be in NC/SC and we would have to hope for the feeder band (the Euro was particularly in on this scenario). The interesting thing that has happened in the last day or so is that the models have caught on to a second low that pops off the coast. That disrupts the moisture flow and likely keeps the rain closer to the low and the coast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 Go with whatever model shows the least amount of precipitation. It is batting at least .750. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 Euro is juicer for immediate DC but dry for NE MD. Quite a gradient. Not sure whether to overseed or not… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 Its not all that complicated. The blocking ridge to our north is simply too strong for Eight to move north into Virginia. N.C. gets the lions share of the rain. Southwestern locations in my backyard should do better than D.C.. My 8 model blend has increased from 1.23" at 6 am to 1.28" at 2 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Euro is juicer for immediate DC but dry for NE MD. Quite a gradient. Not sure whether to overseed or not… At least next week there should be AM dew and lower daytime temps. This rain stuff is as frustrating as snow in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 16 Author Share Posted September 16 WB 18Z NAM is well North this run.. 2am TH. And still raining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 16 Author Share Posted September 16 WB 12K NAM 2pm TH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 38 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12K NAM 2pm TH. Will: I would suggest that you look at the NAM 3 k This is likely closer to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 16 Author Share Posted September 16 1 hour ago, stormy said: Will: I would suggest that you look at the NAM 3 k This is likely closer to reality. Understood... but the GFS is wetter too this run. Been a very boring month of weather, got to dust off the cobwebs for our Thanksgiving and Christmas blizzard tracking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 16 Author Share Posted September 16 WB 18Z ICON has been very consistent with heavier rain over the last four runs. Let's see how it does. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 5 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Euro is juicer for immediate DC but dry for NE MD. Quite a gradient. Not sure whether to overseed or not… You have plenty of seed. Let it rip. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 17 Author Share Posted September 17 Pretty amazing precip discrepancies....WB 0Z GFS and EURO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 17 Author Share Posted September 17 WB 6Z 3K NAM nice move north with precip shield compared to 0Z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 17 Share Posted September 17 This simply is not going to be anything like what the models were depicting a few days ago. With the primary low tracking inland so far south and dissipating, and a secondary coastal low forming and tracking northward offshore, our area isn't going to get the feed of tropical moisture. Most will probably see a half inch or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 17 Author Share Posted September 17 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: This simply is not going to be anything like what the models were depicting a few days ago. With the primary low tracking inland so far south and dissipating, and a secondary coastal low forming and tracking northward offshore, our area isn't going to get the feed of tropical moisture. Most will probably see a half inch or less. I had a little shower overnight....will take whatever I can get as I am tired of watering!!!! If I get over half an inch will call it a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 17 Author Share Posted September 17 WB 6Z ICON. Solid as a rock on widespread rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 17 Author Share Posted September 17 WB 6Z GFS. Holds firm on rain staying south....great test case for the model. Several hundred miles south of 6Z ICON, RDPS, and NAM under two days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted September 17 Share Posted September 17 Western areas really need the rain, hopefully we get a surprise and this over performs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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