WxWatcher007 Posted September 15 Author Share Posted September 15 Found this interesting from the 8pm advisory. It seems that they don’t have a real heading currently and now it’s likely to become tropical rather than subtropical. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 32.1 North, longitude 77.8 West. The system has been moving erratically this evening, but the disturbance is expected to start moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) overnight. On the forecast track, the center of the system should reach the coast within the warning area on Monday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. This system is likely to become a tropical storm tonight or tomorrow morning and some strengthening is possible before the system makes landfall. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 ...POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND COASTAL FLOODING... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.2N 77.9W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM SSW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Edisto Beach, South Carolina northward to Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 32.2 North, longitude 77.9 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is expected through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the system should reach the coast within the warning area on Monday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. This system is likely to become a tropical storm overnight or tomorrow morning, and some strengthening is possible before the system makes landfall. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082024 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024 The Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) has become a bit better organized tonight, with deep convection on the northeast side of the circulation. Additionally, the last aircraft pass just north of the estimated center of the system indicated that the temperature gradient from east-to-west had weakened. However, it is still unclear whether a well-defined center exists looking at the latest satellite and radar animations, with the center that the plane found earlier looking somewhat elongated. For now, the system will remain a Potential Tropical Cyclone, and the winds are set to 40 kt. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to be in the area overnight for a better look at the system's structure. It appears the system has only drifted northwest since this afternoon. The PTC should move a bit faster to the northwest on Monday and Tuesday due to flow from a ridge over the northeastern United States. There is general agreement on this track in the models, though they differ on the speed. The new forecast is trended a bit slower than the last one, but not as slow as the ECMWF model. The system has a high chance of being a tropical cyclone early tomorrow, and some strengthening is possible before landfall as it moves over warm waters with a conducive upper-level trough interaction. The official forecast is similar to the latest decay-SHIPS model guidance and the prior forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 32.2N 77.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 16/1200Z 32.8N 78.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 17/0000Z 33.6N 79.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/1200Z 34.5N 80.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 18/0000Z 35.5N 80.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 18/1200Z 36.6N 81.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 19/0000Z 36.5N 80.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 This is just a nor Easter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 28 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: This is just a nor Easter Agree but rainfall exceeding expectations along the NC coast. Radar estimates already showing 6-11” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 16 Author Share Posted September 16 Worst of it definitely being taken out on NC, with the heaviest rain now just offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 13 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: This is just a nor Easter Sort of but moreso in that it's a coastal storm than how it generated. This is a very good post from storm2k from yesterday, Quote Not sure if this is the correct thread or perhaps a topic in talkin' tropics but my question is on subtrop/trop development froming off stalled fronts. Mods please split if this is the wrong place for this question. Thought this would be fun to discuss since we are about to see what will happen to this system in real-time the next 48 hours. So my question: What are the tell-tale signs via satillite or surface obs that subtrop/trop development in proximity or being attached to a front? (ie: is it when via satillite data in can be determined that the LLC formed and becomes detached from the front(s) and the motion of the LLC acts\moves independently from the motion of the front, or the LLC begins to become more vertically stacked with a MLC, or via a more general frontal analysis of available observations of surface and upper atmosphehic data to determine if the front and any potential/active circulations are acting independently so the process of subtrop/trop development can become the dominate forcing mechanism from convective development as oppose to the front being the forcing mechinism for cenvective development. I understand that perhaps the answer is a combination of a few things, but without using model data how is this determined via only using surface obs/satillite data. Last question: where is the product that shows the four charts that are used to determine cold vs warm core development? first time caller long time listener. interested to see what recon finds later today with this system! -subtropical storm enthuisist in the carolinas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 The reason this isn’t sub tropical is it doesn’t have a center. Look at radar and look at wind obs. It’s an elongated oblong area of a wind shift, not a COC. Subtropical storms have a defined COC, this doesn’t 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 Johnny Mercer Pier sustained 40 kts gusting 48 kts 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 check out the swell associated with our system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 Rainy and breezy here in Raleigh and feels a little more fall like than tropical right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 Definitely feels like a fall coastal, not tropical 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 64 degrees with a stiff NE wind and light rain. Not a tropical system at all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 Top gusts so far: 60 mph Wilmington, 67 mph Wrightsville beach, & a rather suspect looking 77 mph gust at sunny point. Meanwhile, even along the coastline only gusts in the mid 30s south of Bald Head. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 The system remains non-tropical. All you need to do is look at the motion of the low-level cloud field on visible. The surface low still has frontal characteristics. Regardless, Carolina Beach is getting smashed with extremely high rain rates right now. Hopefully, the core of this firehose doesn't pivot over Wilmington. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 Some impressive rain amounts at Carolina Beach so far: https://x.com/NWSWilmingtonNC/status/1835689879344394682 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 38 minutes ago, eyewall said: Some impressive rain amounts at Carolina Beach so far: https://x.com/NWSWilmingtonNC/status/1835689879344394682 Insane - localized 20+ by time all is said and done 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 Unfortunately for coastal areas, the high radar estimates are being confirmed on the ground 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 All I can think of is if this was snow 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 33 minutes ago, BoulderWX said: Unfortunately for coastal areas, the high radar estimates are being confirmed on the ground This was even worse than Florence in some areas due to it falling within a much shorter period of time. This shows you don’t need a TS or STS to have near biblical effects. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 It looks like low-level vorticity is detaching from the front. Indeed, the intense training of supercells into SE North Carolina looks more like a feeder band versus the warm boundary layer further north. You can see the surface circulation right over North Myrtle with offshore flow now SW of tilted closed circulation. Low banding clouds are becoming more evident on the backside of the warm core surface vortex. However, the timing may just be too late here. It appears the surface low is going to make landfall before TCG can complete, and this system will not get named.I'm not sure how that will affect insurance claims with it not being a classified tropical cyclone. Unfortunately, the flash flooding that is ongoing looks to continue into the evening, as the dominate intense band north if the surface low does not appear to be waning. The 15+ inch totals are pushing inland now to communities like Bolivia. This area just got hit hard by an unclassified tropical low a few months ago. The inland flooding potential looks worse here than that former event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 Saving grace for immediate coastal areas it pertains for fresh water flooding is three-fold: 1) sandy base soils allow for maximum drainage; 2) it’s post-summer-season, so lower population; 3) most houses are on stilts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 21 minutes ago, Windspeed said: It looks like low-level vorticity is detaching from the front. Indeed, the intense training of supercells into SE North Carolina looks more like a feeder band versus the warm boundary layer further north. You can see the surface circulation right over North Myrtle with offshore flow now SW of tilted closed circulation. Low banding clouds are becoming more evident on the backside of the surface low. However, the timing may just be too late here. It appears the surface low is going to make landfall before TCG can complete, and this system will not get named. I'm not sure how that will affect insurance claims with it not being a classified tropical cyclone. Unfortunately, the flash flooding that is ongoing looks to continue into the evening, as the dominate intense band north if the surface low does not appear to be waning. The 15+ inch totals are pushing inland now to communities like Bolivia. This area just got hit hard by an unclassified tropical low a few months ago. The inland flooding potential looks worse here than that former event. FEMA/NFIP flood insurance covers flooding from heavy rain from whatever the source. But homeowner’s normally doesn’t pay for flooding from rainfall. It pays to have FEMA/NFIP. It isn’t even expensive outside of high risk flood zones. https://flood.nc.gov/ncflood/insuranceagent.html#:~:text=Is flood insurance available everywhere,NC communities are participating communities. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 I'd keep a close eye on potential flooding issues over the hills of upstate SC and mountains of western NC. Lot's of tropical moisture gonna get lifted and wrung out over those areas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 16 Author Share Posted September 16 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 Pretty sure those are all squall related. I don’t see anything from Topsail over 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 3 hours ago, GaWx said: FEMA/NFIP flood insurance covers flooding from heavy rain from whatever the source. But homeowner’s normally doesn’t pay for flooding from rainfall. It pays to have FEMA/NFIP. It isn’t even expensive outside of high risk flood zones. https://flood.nc.gov/ncflood/insuranceagent.html#:~:text=Is flood insurance available everywhere,NC communities are participating communities. One other thing to keep in mind - Flood damage does not normally cover personal items in basements and neither would homeowners as its flood related. Just food for thought. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted September 16 Share Posted September 16 4 hours ago, StantonParkHoya said: Saving grace for immediate coastal areas it pertains for fresh water flooding is three-fold: 1) sandy base soils allow for maximum drainage; 2) it’s post-summer-season, so lower population; 3) most houses are on stilts. I have all of that going for me and still ended up with 8 inches of water under my house from the complete inundation we have had for almost two weeks. The amount of water on our island rivals what we had with Michael in 2018. Granted some of that water from Michael was storm surge. This was purely a rain event in the Florida Big Bend. Absolute frog strangler rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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