Central Park (CP) snowfall outlook 2024-25 winter (above or below normal?)-deadline Oct 31, 2024 (if interested)

[wdrag]

Regarding the coming winter snowfall.  As of August, 2024, CPC had us above normal temp for DJF, and near the storm track - indeterminate regarding above or below normal precipitation,  as apparently we progress into a La Niña per their headlines-guidance. 

Attached are the SEASONAL (Nov 1-March 31) snowfalls in CP (with usual measuring uncertainties found in many datasets not directly associated with NWS office measurements). Also attached is the latest ENTIRE seasonal snowfall per official climate assessment, with 0.5" outside the Nov 1-March 31 primary window.

I think we can acknowledge from the datasets presented, that a CP December of above normal snowfall bodes well for an above normal winter of snowfall. 

I have checked the regional boards adjacent our NYC subforum and have only seen winter outlook discussion on the New England subforum.  Posts don't have to be many pages as I think the longer they are, the greater the uncertainty-caveats. However, anything posted in my opinion should be self assessed around March 31, 2025.  I'll venture to say anything between 25-35" snowfall is near normal for CP (2013-18 seasons ending March 31) but others will probably disagree. 

The idea here... it's been awhile (2020-21 season) for an above normal seasonal snowfall in CP and generally in the NYC subforum (Wantage NJ 60" that winter) 

Seasonal forecasting specific parameters is not easy and statistically less reliable than a 1-3 week period from (T0), the moment of issuance.  

[dmillz25]

20”

[wdrag]

33 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

20”

Better than last 3 seasons eh?  I tend to agree w you on below normal but a little better than the past seasons but my take is not through stats/patterns.--just a guess.  

 

One of the factors I failed to mention in the topic introduction--- marine above normal cool season warmth which has probably played a role in more mixed-rain in our subforum, instead of predominant snow. 

[MJO812]

30-40 inches 

[Stormlover74]

Ewr 19.5"

Central park 13

LGA 17

Jfk 16

[wdrag]

I will add CPC seasonal outlook updates around 9/21 and then the big one for CPC around Oct 17.

 

Here's from the ACCU-WEATHER supported OFA... a general temperate milder than normal winter in the USA. For our area:

Region 2: Atlantic Corridor

This swath of land along the East Coast covers portions of seven states, including New York, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, as well as major cities from Boston and NYC to Washington, D.C., and Richmond.

How Cold Will Winter Be?       
Not bad! Temperatures will be average to slightly above average during winter (though 2% colder than average during February). The region will also experience shots of cold in mid-December, early and late January, and late February.

Will There Be Snow?     
Precipitation will be slightly below normal this winter. In this region, snowfall will be below normal in the north and above normal in the south. The most snow is expected to arrive in late December and late February.

[wdrag]

I just took a look at the ECMWF ensemble predictions through JFM2025 northern hemisphere. Depressing if it verifies. Above normal temps coast-coast with best chance below normal near the Canadian border of the ne USA, and a dry start turning to a normal or wetter than normal JFM, as ensembled around Sept 1.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/?facets={"Product type"%3A[]%2C"Parameters"%3A[]%2C"Range"%3A["Long (Months)"]%2C"Type"%3A["Forecasts"]}

[donsutherland1]

Around 16.5" at Central Park. Below normal, but much better than the past two winters.

[forkyfork]

ewr 6.5

nyc 6

lga 5

jfk 4

djf anomaly of +5, 5 days or fewer below freezing

[cleetussnow]

CP = 14 inches 

 

[etudiant]

Surely the most likely is under 10".

We have all the makings of a non event winter, what would produce a near normal result?

[wdrag]

Added 9/21/24 from CPC - the Sept 19 updated 3 mo outlook:  Looks like an OH or Tennessee Valley storm track nearby...  everyone on this post is pretty conservative for the winter snowfall (so far).  Good timing of a storm and cold enough vertical profile would be welcomed by snow lovers... I'm not giving up yet.  CPC Sept 19 DJF below: 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Islip 60” 

[coastalplainsnowman]

JFK 26

[jm1220]

Central Park 14"

JFK: 11"

Islip: 17"

Newark: 15"

White Plains: 22"

Newburgh: 29"

Bridgeport: 20"

My backyard 18"

Well below normal again in a never ending Perma-Nina/MJO 4-6 stretch but hopefully we can buy a half decent period or two when the Pacific jet can relax, we get cold air for more than a day or two or we get lucky with a coastal storm on an offshore track like in Feb this year. Maybe one will be a SWFE type event where it's snow to rain which isn't ideal but it counts. Once you're along I-90 Ninas like these can be just fine especially if we get some cold high pressures that put up resistance to the train of cutters, and north of there well above normal. 

[Roger Smith]

32" that s.b. 37"

[wdrag]

Took the liberty to share the WeatherBell winter snowfall outlook, and the link for more details.

https://www.weatherbell.com/a-look-at-winter

 

[wdrag]

From CPC yesterday (10/10/24) on the unfolding La Niña:  This posted just I. case it impacts your predictions for snowfall at CP this winter, (ne USA).

 

The IRI plume predicts a weak and a short duration La Niña, as indicated by the Niño-3.4 index values less than -0.5°C [Fig. 6]. The latest North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) forecasts were warmer this month, but still predict a weak La Niña. As a result of the warmer predictions and the recent weakening of equatorial trade winds, the team still favors a weak event, but has lowered the chances of La Niña. A weaker La Niña implies that it would be less likely to result in conventional winter impacts, though predictable signals could still influence the forecast guidance (e.g., CPC's seasonal outlooks). In summary, La Niña is favored to emerge in September-November (60% chance) and is expected to persist through January-March 2025 [Fig. 7].

[TheClimateChanger]

Will NYC break the record for longest streak without a calendar day snowfall of 4 or more inches? If it doesn't happen on or before the end of December, the streak will move into second place [still 82 days left in the year]. If it doesn't happen this winter, highly likely to break the record [unless there was a very early snowstorm in winter 2024-25].

[Rjay]

NYC temps:

December +8

January +7

February +5

March +3

 

Central Park 5"

 

JFK: 2"

 

Islip: 4"

 

Newark: 6"

 

White Plains: 9"

 

Newburgh: 24"

 

Bridgeport: 9"

[MJO812]

19 minutes ago, Rjay said:

NYC temps:

December +8

January +7

February +5

March +3

 

Central Park 5"

 

JFK: 2"

 

Islip: 4"

 

Newark: 6"

 

White Plains: 9"

 

Newburgh: 24"

 

Bridgeport: 9"

This must be a troll post lol

[rclab]

2 hours ago, Rjay said:

NYC temps:

December +8

January +7

February +5

March +3

 

Central Park 5"

 

JFK: 2"

 

Islip: 4"

 

Newark: 6"

 

White Plains: 9"

 

Newburgh: 24"

 

Bridgeport: 9"

 

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

This must be a troll post lol

The alternative ……. As always …..

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

EWR  15.4

LGA 12.9

KNYC 2.2 - many on this board will still insist they are measuring accurately in the Park, which anyone that pays attention knows they do not.

JFK 10.5

SWF 34.4

ALB 64.8

BOST - no one cares

PHIL - no one cares

Lake Placid - no one measures

 

[wdrag]

NOAA-CPC just posted their winter outlook-official on Oct 17.  Here are some of the primary attachments. What I noticed in recent trends, is they cooled it slightly in the ne USA, and also reduced the chance of above normal qpf in the Ohio Valley.