40/70 Benchmark Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Satellite and radar don’t look that impressive to me. Seems like some shear and dry air is impinging on the southern side of the eye wall. It made a decent run overnight anyways. Went entirely as anticipated with a brief window last night during which the winds jumped up to be more in line with the minimum central pressure. Should come in as a marginal cane, but like pope said...main threats are associated with water. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Francine is following the script here. I do not expect any surprises. As has been much discussed, with mid-level flow tilting the vortex and advecting in pockets of dry continental airmass into the circulation, any further strengthening should be held in check. Pressure falls have leveled off and might even be rising some now. I wouldn't be surprised if the core weakens slightly prior to landfall. Obviously, flash flooding and surge are the prominent dangers here. I don't think sustained winds or gusts will be more than what seasoned Louisianans are able to handle. Not downplaying, it's still a hurricane. But this region has seen much worse in previous years. 3 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 40 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Francine is following the script here. I do not expect any surprises. As has been much discussed, with mid-level flow tilting the vortex and advecting in pockets of dry continental airmass into the circulation, any further strengthening should be held in check. Pressure falls have leveled off and might even be rising some now. I wouldn't be surprised if the core weakens slightly prior to landfall. Obviously, flash flooding and surge are the prominent dangers here. I don't think sustained winds or gusts will be more than what seasoned Louisianans are able to handle. Not downplaying, it's still a hurricane. But this region has seen much worse in previous years. Yeah as we get closer everything looks…ho hum. Even the track has settled I think. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 I don't disagree with any of the thoughts posted so far this morning. I just wanted to point out that Francine has generated its most impressive dropsonde so far from the western eyewall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Rain has started here but not much going on yet. Pressure at ~1010mb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 She’s definitely holding her own this morning. Maybe even better organized than a few hours ago. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 It won’t close off fully, but the parts of the eyewall that are there are looking quite sharp on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: It won’t close off fully, but the parts of the eyewall that are there are looking quite sharp on radar. One small error I may have made was to overestimate how much the degradation of the prelandfall environment will weaken the system...as a cat 1 hurricane can sustain itself in far less than ideal conditions and I could have been more mindful of that. I could see it coming in a bit stronger than my 75mph LF call, even though I got the max intensity correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martytdx Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 38 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Newbie here, but what's up with that secondary vortex/circulation coming in from the northeast?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: One small error I may have made was to overestimate how much the degradation of the prelandfall environment will weaken the system...as a cat 1 hurricane can sustain itself in far less than ideal conditions and I could have been more mindful of that. I could see it coming in a bit stronger than my 75mph LF call, even though I got the max intensity correct. Maybe, but will those potentially high winds will be reflected in ground truth. Weakening systems at landfall have a more difficult time of getting max winds to mix down to the ground. Let's see what the obs. show at landfall. Still believe surge will be most impactful parameter. There will of course still be wind damage and power outages. Fortunately the large areas of marsh land along the LA coast will absorb most of the surge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: One small error I may have made was to overestimate how much the degradation of the prelandfall environment will weaken the system...as a cat 1 hurricane can sustain itself in far less than ideal conditions and I could have been more mindful of that. I could see it coming in a bit stronger than my 75mph LF call, even though I got the max intensity correct. Like Manda said, those higher winds still have to verify at the surface and I’m skeptical of that if the system is leveling out or weakening at landfall later. The inner core did do a good job of prohibiting dry air entrainment this morning to allow for this deep convection to persist, but that’ll become harder as the day progresses. I can see an official landfall of 90mph, but few sustained obs of 75-80 and scattered gusts thereabouts. 9 minutes ago, Martytdx said: Newbie here, but what's up with that secondary vortex/circulation coming in from the northeast?!? I don’t see a secondary vortex, I think that’s the eyewall itself just becoming better defined partially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 15 minutes ago, MANDA said: Maybe, but will those potentially high winds will be reflected in ground truth. Weakening systems at landfall have a more difficult time of getting max winds to mix down to the ground. Let's see what the obs. show at landfall. Still believe surge will be most impactful parameter. There will of course still be wind damage and power outages. Fortunately the large areas of marsh land along the LA coast will absorb most of the surge. 6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Like Manda said, those higher winds still have to verify at the surface and I’m skeptical of that if the system is leveling out or weakening at landfall later. The inner core did do a good job of prohibiting dry air entrainment this morning to allow for this deep convection to persist, but that’ll become harder as the day progresses. I can see an official landfall of 90mph, but few sustained obs of 75-80 and scattered gusts thereabouts. I don’t see a secondary vortex, I think that’s the eyewall itself just becoming better defined partially. Eh....I verify based on official intensity. No doubt in my mind we aren't seeing sustained 90mph sustained winds anywhere on land...even 75, I doubt. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 84 knot wind gust in the Gulf of Mexico 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Eh....I verify based on official intensity. No doubt in my mind we aren't seeing sustained 90mph sustained winds anywhere on land...even 75, I doubt. Yeah probably sustained 50-60, gusts to 90 for the most part 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Definitely a potent eyewall, what one would expect for a mid-upper tier cat 1. Of all the land-impacting storms of recent- this one has followed the script almost perfectly with very few forecast surprises both from track or intensity. Kind of refreshing to have an “easy” forecast for once 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 I’m much more interested in storm size at this point. If I had to guess, Francine looks more like a mid to high end cat 2 in terms of ACE. Anyone got those exact numbers to share? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Excellent radar presentation. Almost looks like a giant right moving supercell with a hook echo. Velocities are also very strong around the core. Seems to be ramping up in the face of shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Sat Data has weakening flag now on, nhc also mentions shear is now starting to show its effects too. Nhc issued an extra update at 11 am (12 pm est) An oil platform north of the center recently reported sustained winds of 85 mph (137 km/h) and a gust of 101 mph (163 km/h) at an elevation of 98 ft (30 m). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Francine has changed little in intensity during the last several hours. Flight-level winds from the aircraft and a northwest eyewall dropsonde suggest that the maximum sustained surface winds are near 80 kt, and the central pressure is near 976 mb. The aircraft have been reporting a large elliptical eye open to the south, which matches the depiction of the eye in WSR-88D Doppler radar data from Lake Charles. Satellite imagery does show that the cloud pattern is becoming elongated from northeast to southwest due to the increasing effects of southwesterly shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 The impending shear impacts are mitigated due to storm relative motion. As long as Francene maintains a significant easterly component to track, that should maintain the case--more or less steady state in terms of surface pressure. I believe the weakening will coincide with the forecasted northerly recurve. The key of course, is when that exactly occurs, before or after landfall... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Sad state the Gulf observation buoys etc are in so many are offline possibly ahead of the storm or for other unknown reasons directly in the path of the storm to... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 7 minutes ago, jbenedet said: The impending shear impacts are mitigated due to storm relative motion. As long as Francene maintains a significant easterly component to track, that should maintain the case--more or less steady state in terms of surface pressure. I believe the weakening will coincide with the forecasted northerly recurve. The key of course, is when that exactly occurs, before or after landfall... Yeah I thought that was pretty well established a couple days ago, that a stronger storm could actually be enhanced by what on paper is shear. You think more of a net neutral impact overall though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 At present, the eye is easily discerned on visible satellite. The structure represents what we are seeing on radar. The more intense echoes of the north and western eyewall is where the deepest convection persists on satellite. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Adding the loop 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Looks like this is going to be ashore ahead of schedule 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: 1 hour ago, wthrmn654 said: Sat Data has weakening flag now on, nhc also mentions shear is now starting to show its effects too. Nhc issued an extra update at 11 am (12 pm est) An oil platform north of the center recently reported sustained winds of 85 mph (137 km/h) and a gust of 101 mph (163 km/h) at an elevation of 98 ft (30 m). Usually mixed signals with respect to intensity trend in hurricanes are indicative of essentially steady state. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Usually mixed signals with respect to intensity trend in hurricanes is indicative of essentially steady state. Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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