Hurricane Francine

[wthrmn654]

@purduewx80 what are your thoughts and ideas with this storm?  As a meteorologist,  what do you see that you disagree with some thinking it won't be as strong?  

Legitimately asking. 

[BoulderWX]

4 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

@purduewx80 what are your thoughts and ideas with this storm?  As a meteorologist,  what do you see that you disagree with some thinking it won't be as strong?  

Legitimately asking. 

Yeah… I’m wondering the same since I got weenied for essentially posting facts (path shifted east and it’s 65mph currently), and then saying it looks on track to hit as a cat 1 lol. Would love to know what he took issue with. 

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

Florence?

According to the mapmaker

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET: landfall now into SE LA, a bit further E vs 0Z; then goes N through E MS and dissipates near KY

TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE   ANALYSED POSITION : 24.4N  95.8W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062024

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 10.09.2024    0  24.4N  95.8W      996            37
    0000UTC 11.09.2024   12  25.9N  94.5W      994            36
    1200UTC 11.09.2024   24  27.6N  93.1W      992            44
    0000UTC 12.09.2024   36  29.2N  90.5W      989            40
    1200UTC 12.09.2024   48  31.4N  89.3W      991            34
    0000UTC 13.09.2024   60  34.3N  88.3W      994            24
    1200UTC 13.09.2024   72  36.5N  89.1W      999            16
    0000UTC 14.09.2024   84  36.6N  88.5W     1005            15
    1200UTC 14.09.2024   96  37.7N  87.6W     1009            19
    0000UTC 15.09.2024  108              CEASED TRACKING

[Amped]

Getting a bit to close to rhe Nola metro for comfort. Thankfully it won't be as strong as Ida.

[NorthHillsWx]

Super low pressure for a 55 kt storm

[40/70 Benchmark]

Here is my first and final stab at this one.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/09/tropics-awaken-as-tropical-storm.html

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Is the coc as big as it seems or is there a smaller coc that’s not closed off within the truck tire? If it’s the former, it’s hard to imagine this system adding very much strength over the next 24 hrs.

Former IMO....hard to imagine a pinhole eye given the organizational deficiencies (diffuse CDO) and envt. flaws (competing convection).

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Super low pressure for a 55 kt storm

These are related......I'll bet we see the winds play catch up for a window overnight.

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Former IMO....hard to imagine a pinhole eye given the organizational deficiencies (diffuse CDO) and envt. flaws (competing convection).

 

[Modfan2]

39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Here is my first and final stab at this one.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/09/tropics-awaken-as-tropical-storm.html

 

I just happen to be north of NOLA in Jackson MS this week, seeing what effects we see up here; assume just some heavy rain

[wthrmn654]

33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

These are related......I'll bet we see the winds play catch up for a window overnight.

 

Reminds me of Ernesto, pressure kept dropping but winds didn't follow for a while till just before getting near Bermuda.  

[wthrmn654]

[wthrmn654]

Is that another round a dry air getting wrapped into her on the left side?  Such a tiny looking thing crazy! 

 

[wthrmn654]

 

[purduewx80]

4 hours ago, BoulderWX said:

Yeah… I’m wondering the same since I got weenied for essentially posting facts (path shifted east and it’s 65mph currently), and then saying it looks on track to hit as a cat 1 lol. Would love to know what he took issue with. 

You claimed NHC has landfall as a cat 1 on the 10CT advisory, yet the discussion was posted just before yours explicitly stating landfall would likely be 85KT in between forecast points, which is a Cat 2. You can't look at an inland forecast point and claim that's the landfall intensity.

[thunderbolt]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Here is my first and final stab at this one.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/09/tropics-awaken-as-tropical-storm.html

 

Nice, write up brother

[purduewx80]

4 hours ago, wthrmn654 said:

@purduewx80 what are your thoughts and ideas with this storm?  As a meteorologist,  what do you see that you disagree with some thinking it won't be as strong?  

Legitimately asking. 

Models have continually shown the best window for intensification tonight, that still looks legit as that mid-level circulation in the northern Gulf dissipates and convergence refocuses over the water/Francine during the overnight hours. The eastward trends some of you noted are also quite obvious (below), and I think New Orleans should be added to the hurricane warnings on the next update.

The shear map you posted applies to this morning, not tomorrow's shear near landfall. Yes, it will increase as Francine approaches land tomorrow, but there is really good diffluence and jet dynamics involved, which may negate some of the modeled shear. Peak intensity at cat 2 seems reasonable, but I'm not sold on trends right before landfall, which will be impactful in terms of how much wind makes it to the surface. The more eastern solutions would have a track more aligned with the shear, and a bit more time over warm water could help it maintain intensity. The biggest inhibitor now to intensification in my opinion is dry air. Anyway, like we saw with Beryl, an intensifying storm at landfall will be much more efficient at bringing down the strong winds aloft, while a weakening one would underperform on winds but still produce a substantial surge.

[wthrmn654]

2 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Models have continually shown the best window for intensification tonight, that still looks legit as that mid-level circulation in the northern Gulf dissipates and convergence refocuses over the water/Francine during the overnight hours. The eastward trends some of you noted are also quite obvious (below), and I think New Orleans should be added to the hurricane warnings on the next update.

The shear map you posted applies to this morning, not tomorrow's shear near landfall. Yes, it will increase as Francine approaches land tomorrow, but there is really good diffluence and jet dynamics involved, which may negate some of the modeled shear. Peak intensity at cat 2 seems reasonable, but I'm not sold on trends right before landfall, which will be impactful in terms of how much wind makes it to the surface. The more eastern solutions would have a track more aligned with the shear, and a bit more time over warm water could help it maintain intensity. The biggest inhibitor now to intensification in my opinion is dry air. Anyway, like we saw with Beryl, an intensifying storm at landfall will be much more efficient at bringing down the strong winds aloft, while a weakening one would underperform on winds but still produce a substantial surge.

Great thank you.  

[NorthHillsWx]

I definitely think the biggest question marks with this storm are with track rather than intensity. Intensity forecast seems straightforward for once and honestly splitting hairs between 75-85 kts isn’t going to impact the outcome much. What was just said above about whether it’s peaking at LF vs weakening could be more impactful as that will to an extent drive the impacts. The eastward shifts certainly bear watching as to could take the right front quad over New Orleans. The good news about the approach west of the Mississippi is it won’t have much time to build up a surge for the metro area, though wind impacts will certainly be heightened

[wthrmn654]

Impressive nearly 24 hours with little to no change in winds 

[BoulderWX]

47 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

You claimed NHC has landfall as a cat 1 on the 10CT advisory, yet the discussion was posted just before yours explicitly stating landfall would likely be 85KT in between forecast points, which is a Cat 2. You can't look at an inland forecast point and claim that's the landfall intensity.

Fair enough, there was also no data point directly before landfall so it was a bit of a gray area but your point is taken. Most of what I have seen is a forecast of cat 1 at landfall which I agree with. Certainly possible it hits cat 2 at some point in its journey but inhibiting factors as it approaches land has always capped upward potential. 

[salbers]

Spire's SRFS 12z model run has the track moving more to the NE actually passing over New Orleans.

 

[Floydbuster]

 

[wthrmn654]

[wthrmn654]

979 on recon? 

[wthrmn654]

[wthrmn654]

 

[cardinalland]

crawling over some rocket fuel.

[Floydbuster]

That evening convective burst might just send Francine over the edge into hurricane status.

[cardinalland]

some westerly shear is evident and recon seems to indicate that the storm isn't perfectly stacked. the MLC seems to be east of the LLC. but hurricane doesn't seem far off at all.