GaWx Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 Per this Francine is about to be designated: AL, 06, 2024090912, , BEST, 0, 227N, 947W, 45, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 100, 140, 140, 1008, 180, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FRANCINE, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014, 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 1 hour ago, olafminesaw said: Not your typical hurricane! This is an absolutely insane look for early September but ventilation to the NE won’t be a problem lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 35 minutes ago, GaWx said: Per this Francine is about to be designated: AL, 06, 2024090912, , BEST, 0, 227N, 947W, 45, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 100, 140, 140, 1008, 180, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FRANCINE, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014, For what it’s worth at range banding features appear to be increasingly evident on Brownsville radar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 Plots by Model via Allan Huffman 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 WTNT31 KNHC 091455TCPAT1BULLETINTropical Storm Francine Advisory Number 4NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL0620241000 AM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE......EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY WITH STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHESISSUED FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST...SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION-----------------------------------------------LOCATION...23.0N 94.9WABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDEABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANAMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHESWATCHES AND WARNINGS--------------------CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from east of High Island, Texas, eastward to the Mississippi/Alabama Border, including Vermilion Bay, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Cameron eastward to GrandIsle in Louisiana.A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued east of High Island, Texas, to Cameron, Louisiana, and from Grand Isle, Louisiana, to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 Tropical Storm Francine Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024 The structure of the system on satellite imagery has improved this morning, with a large circular region of cold convection between -70 to -85 near the estimated center. An Air-Force Reconnaissance Aircraft is sampling the system this morning and earlier found a cyclonic wind shift from southeasterly to northwesterly flow near the center of the mass of deep convection. This data provides enough evidence that a well-defined circulation now exists, and thus PTC Six has become Tropical Storm Francine with sustained winds of 45 kt this advisory. The estimated motion is still tricky given the center only recently formed but is estimated still off to the north-northwest at 340/4 kt. The system is expected to gradually turn northward and then north-northeastward as it moves between a mid-level ridge centered over Cuba and a broad mid- to upper-level trough located to its northwest over Texas. The guidance this cycle has shifted a little eastward and faster, and the NHC track forecast was once again nudged in that direction. The current track splits the difference between HCCA and TVCN and still shows Francine moving ashore of Louisiana sometime on Wednesday evening. There remains a decent amount of track uncertainty with the GEFS and EPS ensembles showing along-track spread implying some speed differences near landfall. While the system is now a tropical storm, the inner core wind field per reconnaissance observations is still broad and in the organizing stage, and initial intensification will be gradual. However, after an inner-core becomes established, and assuming the cyclone's vertical structure becomes aligned, a period of more significant intensification is possible while storm is embedded in a low shear, high mid-level moisture, and over very warm 30-31 C sea-surface temperatures. The SHIPS rapid intensification (RI) indices are pretty elevated, and a period of RI could also occur between 24-48 h. For now, the NHC intensity forecast will not explicitly forecast RI, but is higher than the previous cycle and shows a 75 kt peak in 48 h, in good agreement with the intensity consensus aids. After that period, southwesterly vertical wind shear quickly increases from 10 kt to more than 30 kt and the intensity could plateau as it approaches the northwestern U.S. Gulf coastline, though the system is forecast to remain a hurricane at landfall. The NHC intensity forecast continues to be in good agreement with the consensus aids, but is a bit under the HAFS-A/B and COAMPS-TC models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 23.0N 94.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 24.0N 95.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 24.9N 95.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 26.3N 95.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 28.0N 93.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 12/0000Z 29.7N 92.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...ON THE COAST 72H 12/1200Z 32.4N 90.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 13/1200Z 36.2N 89.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 14/1200Z 37.5N 88.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Papin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyHeadBarrett Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 What a cheeky monkey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 Not sure when we’ll get a VDM, but recon is finding a much tighter and more organized center in that deep convection. Winds aren’t terribly strong, but it’s the organization that matters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted September 9 Author Share Posted September 9 James van Fleet video with SRFS model discussion: https://x.com/SpireWxClimate/status/1833165234900451340 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 I’ll be interested in seeing 18z more because I think the recon data will be included, but as the NHC notes the SHIPS output is quite robust. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 00z versus actual, shows verification versus forecasted and what has happened intensity wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 And this is 12z intensity forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 12Z UKMET: comes into LA a little further E and slightly stronger (990) vs 0Z (993). Then goes NE to just N of L Ponch. to MS/AL border, where it turns N into W KY. Afterward it turns NE into Indiana, where it finally dissipates: TROPICAL STORM 06L ANALYSED POSITION : 22.7N 93.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062024 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 09.09.2024 0 22.7N 93.9W 1004 38 0000UTC 10.09.2024 12 23.8N 95.7W 1000 39 1200UTC 10.09.2024 24 24.8N 95.3W 998 39 0000UTC 11.09.2024 36 26.5N 94.2W 994 35 1200UTC 11.09.2024 48 28.3N 92.4W 992 46 0000UTC 12.09.2024 60 30.3N 90.0W 990 37 1200UTC 12.09.2024 72 32.6N 88.8W 994 29 0000UTC 13.09.2024 84 35.6N 88.3W 996 20 1200UTC 13.09.2024 96 36.9N 88.7W 1000 16 0000UTC 14.09.2024 108 38.1N 87.0W 1006 27 1200UTC 14.09.2024 120 40.0N 86.8W 1009 21 0000UTC 15.09.2024 132 40.1N 86.7W 1010 18 1200UTC 15.09.2024 144 CEASED TRACKING 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 A substantial drop in extrapolated pressure between passes on that new apparent center under the deep convection. From just over 1001mb to 995.6mb. Again this extrapolated, so more of an estimate. Still, that’s very impressive. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: A substantial drop in extrapolated pressure between passes on that new apparent center under the deep convection. From just over 1001mb to 995.6mb. Again this extrapolated, so more of an estimate. Still, that’s very impressive. Dropsonde verifies- 996 mb on a 5-kt surface wind. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Witness Protection Program Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 Isn't a large major approaching on the eastern edge of the current cone considered the worst case scenario for New Orleans, at least for storm surge? Not that I expect everything to come together for that, just seem to recall that was the findings of a study an LSU professor did years before Katrina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 Circulation becoming more evident on Brownsville Radar. I think she tops out around 90mph before weakening before landfall due to some pretty strong shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 Brownsville radar actually shows a very strong circulation embedded out there. Not sure that’s the one NHC is tracking, looks like multiple centers in a gyre 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 19 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Brownsville radar actually shows a very strong circulation embedded out there. Not sure that’s the one NHC is tracking, looks like multiple centers in a gyre No question this is the center. Very clear eye like feature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 1 minute ago, Normandy said: No question this is the center. Very clear eye like feature For now at least, there’s a nascent eyewall. Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 9th day of the month at 17:22ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5308Tropical Depression: Six (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 3Observation Number: 08 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 9th day of the month at 16:45:10ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 23.69N 95.85WB. Center Fix Location: 186 statute miles (299 km) to the SE (146°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,387m (4,551ft) at 850mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 996mb (29.42 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 140° at 5kts (From the SE at 6mph)F. Eye Character: Open in the westG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: Not AvailableI. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound (Undecoded): NAJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 308° at 31kts (From the NW at 35.7mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the SW (219°) of center fix at 16:43:30ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 47kts (54.1mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 55 nautical miles (63 statute miles) to the NE (47°) of center fix at 17:02:00ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 133° at 58kts (From the SE at 66.7mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NE (44°) of center fix at 16:49:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mileRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NE (44°) from the flight level center at 16:49:00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 Wow nice shape, Francine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 16 minutes ago, Normandy said: No question this is the center. Very clear eye like feature Recon found another broad circulation SE of this. While this may take over as the overall center, there are some issues with the overall storm structure still as it’s organizing. If this center becomes distinct it could intensify at a more rapid pace as it’s firmly embedded under an apparent cdo. Wouldn’t jump the gun on this going bangers yet. Also this center appears to be moving west or west southwest seemingly within the broad center. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 Just now, NorthHillsWx said: Recon found another broad circulation SE of this. While this may take over as the overall center, there are some issues with the overall storm structure still as it’s organizing. If this center becomes distinct it could intensify at a more rapid pace as it’s firmly embedded under an apparent cdo. Wouldn’t jump the gun on this going bangers yet. Also this center appears to be moving west or west southwest seemingly within the broad center. Yeah I think it’s one of those things where the broader circulation isn’t quite aligned with whatever lower level center wants to become the primary. I think given recon and radar that the area seeing significant pressure drops NW of the original low level spin is the leader in the clubhouse, but there’s still some organizational work to do before this can really go. The big pressure drop and visible appearance are eye opening to me though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 For sure. There is still a broad gyre but that center is tight enough that I think it becomes dominant. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 29 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Recon found another broad circulation SE of this. While this may take over as the overall center, there are some issues with the overall storm structure still as it’s organizing. If this center becomes distinct it could intensify at a more rapid pace as it’s firmly embedded under an apparent cdo. Wouldn’t jump the gun on this going bangers yet. Also this center appears to be moving west or west southwest seemingly within the broad center. I assume the NW center is the old 90L former NW Gulf frontal low that’s been dropping S and the other is from the AEW originating 91L, itself. They should soon combine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 2 minutes ago, GaWx said: I assume the NW center is the old 90L former NW Gulf frontal low that’s been dropping S and the other is from the AEW originating 91L, itself. They should soon combine. I think most of 90L has already rotated into the southeast Gulf and is evident just northwest of the Yucatán on GOES vis and ASCAT. If you look at some of the 850 vort progs, this had been shown for several days. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 Pretty obvious on visible imagery an eye is trying to clear out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 A bit concerning with respect to surge potential especially if this thing comes in a little stronger. Thankfully, for the most part, coastal LA does not build in the flood zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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