Hurricane Francine

[WxWatcher007]

Last VDM had a FL wind of 102kt so despite the conditions Francine more than held its own until landfall. Impressive.

[NorthHillsWx]

I remember when every gulf system weakened into landfall and the conversations on here were the opposite… Pretty crazy run of last second intensifying storms. This might have been a product of perfect timing with a convective burst more so than large scale influences but definitely getting hairy videos all over social media now. This one will verify cat 2 on land 

[WxWatcher007]

Pressure here down to 1001mb with the wind gradually picking up. Nothing that impressive yet other than the clouds off the deck absolutely screaming by.

Edit: but the power is flickering more

[Seminole]

The path Francine took brought it over some the hottest SST's in the GOM. Definitely was a factor in RI. 

[WxWatcher007]

Business definitely picking up now lol

 

[Floydbuster]

I just looked at data stations and the pressure gradient looks tighter than I expected with how sheared it has become. Looks like Francine has a solid core.

[WxWatcher007]

Just recorded a gust of 40.1mph

[FredRed]

Here is one day make site for recon hd visuals... updates every minute!

Used Claude Sonnet and built in one day... started this morning.

Hover along the legend to filter winds at that speed... 

Hurricane Reconnaissance Viewer (hurricane-recon-viewer.replit.app)

[gymengineer]

New Orleans International Airport already recorded a couple of gusts over 60 mph. 

[thunderbolt]

Listening to New Orleans, fire dispatch numerous wires calls and I heard two trees on dwellings

[gallopinggertie]

1 hour ago, gymengineer said:

New Orleans International Airport already recorded a couple of gusts over 60 mph. 

I just saw that. So it’s odd that in the 8pm update, the NHC highlighted the obs from the Lakefront Airport that were just 37 mph with a gust of 49.

[wthrmn654]

Tides are manageable thankfully minus the areas to the right and closest to center. 

[CoastalWx]

Man that wind blowing all that water in the lake west and all that intense rain. That’s gonna be a good test for the levees when it shifts west.

[MattPetrulli]

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How bout a Hundy !

Yea, I didn't expect that. 

[gymengineer]

52 minutes ago, gallopinggertie said:

I just saw that. So it’s odd that in the 8pm update, the NHC highlighted the obs from the Lakefront Airport that were just 37 mph with a gust of 49.

And, add in at 8:20 pm CT a 49 mph/G 78 mph report from New Orleans International. I wonder if there’s something I’m missing about the observations from the airport that is considered “non-standard?”

[mob1]

8 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

And, add in at 8:20 pm CT a 49 mph/G 78 mph report from New Orleans International. I wonder if there’s something I’m missing about the observations from the airport that is considered “non-standard?”

That's impressive 

[gymengineer]

19 minutes ago, mob1 said:

That's impressive 

[WxWatcher007]

Flashes all night here

[NorthHillsWx]

This storm must be drawing from upper level jet energy bc holy moly it went “poof” on satellite 

[Floydbuster]

 

[Jebman]

Is Francine really slowing down over Louisiana dumping a lot of torrential rain?

[FredRed]

Looking at the track error... (would really appreciate someone validating these numbers...) happy to send the logic

Enhanced Model Accuracy Comparison (atcf-model-error-viewer.replit.app)

1. UKM (UK Met Office model):
   • Consistently predicts the storm too far east in the first 60 hours
   • Shifts to a southern bias around 60-66 hours
   • Ends with a northwestern bias at 72-84 hours
   • Average error: 44.97 miles (lowest among all models)
2. EGRR:
   • Similar to UKM, with an eastern bias early on
   • Transitions to a northeastern then southeastern bias
   • Ends with a southern then northwestern bias
   • Average error: 46.12 miles
3. OFCL (Official Forecast):
   • Initially has a south-southwestern bias
   • Transitions to a northwestern bias after 36 hours
   • Shows increasing westward bias in later hours
   • Average error: 47.00 miles
4. UKMI and UKM2:
   • Start with southern biases
   • Shift to eastern or southwestern biases mid-forecast
   • End with strong northwestern biases
   • Average errors: 51.12 and 51.22 miles respectively
5. EGR2:
   • Similar pattern to UKMI and UKM2
   • Ends with a strong northwestern bias
   • Average error: 54.22 miles
6. DRCL:
   • Consistent southern to western bias throughout
   • Large western errors in later forecast hours
   • Average error: 55.53 miles
7. OFCI:
   • Southern bias initially
   • Transitions to a persistent west-northwestern bias
   • Average error: 55.73 miles
8. HFSA (likely HWRF):
   • Consistent south-southeastern bias in early hours
   • Gradually shifts to southwestern then western bias
   • Errors increase with forecast time
   • Average error: 58.01 miles
9. EGRI:
   • Initially southern bias
   • Shifts between eastern and northwestern biases
   • Ends with a strong northern component
   • Average error: 58.20 miles
10. HFAI:
    • Persistent southern bias early on
    • Transitions to a western bias in later hours
    • Average error: 62.99 miles

Overall trends:

• Most models show a tendency to predict the storm too far south and east in early hours.
• Many models transition to a western or northwestern bias in later forecast periods.
• The UKM and EGRR models have the lowest average errors.
• HFSA and HFAI show larger errors, especially in extended forecasts.
• There's significant variability in model performance, with average errors ranging from about 45 to 63 miles.

[MANDA]

Reed Timmer video.

https://x.com/i/status/1834032549254873472

Impressive.  Solid high end Cat 1.

Impressive Surge.

[MANDA]

Another video from Brett Adair.

 

https://x.com/i/status/1834049290219532476

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 9/10/2024 at 10:28 AM, wthrmn654 said:

Upper divergence

Lower convergence

Kudos for catching this. I interpreted that as a bit for a red flag on my call for appreciable wearing prior to LF, but ultimately ignored and at my own peril, as it turns out. Francine intensified precisely under  that area of upper divergence just prior to landfall, which negated the negative influence of the dry air/shear via enhanced evacuation of air aloft IMO.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/09/hurricane-francine-strikes-louisiana.html

Call it a C+ since I nailed the track.

 

[wthrmn654]

Overall,  how did they do down south?  Heard on TV wind wasn't really a thing is now water,  mostly fresh water or fresh and salt?  Haven't paid much attention honestly. 

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, wthrmn654 said:

Overall,  how did they do down south?  Heard on TV wind wasn't really a thing is now water,  mostly fresh water or fresh and salt?  Haven't paid much attention honestly. 

From my vantage point it was a legit hurricane but most got through fine wind wise. A lot of outages and modest damage, but that’s to be expected with an intensifying 2 at landfall imo.

[wthrmn654]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

From my vantage point it was a legit hurricane but most got through fine wind wise. A lot of outages and modest damage, but that’s to be expected with an intensifying 2 at landfall imo.

Exactly that's what I eat heading on weather Channel,  had they had a high tide at exact time of hit and maybe a little slower I think flood damage may of been 5x worse. Waters more destructive then most think

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Exactly that's what I eat heading on weather Channel,  had they had a high tide at exact time of hit and maybe a little slower I think flood damage may of been 5x worse. Waters more destructive then most think

That’s why I don’t usually chase at the immediate coastline. I prefer wind, not water. (Except for Florence lol)