wthrmn654 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 pressure is already 987.6 at closest station.. be interesting to see just how low it goes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 7 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Eye clearing out a bit right at landfall. Nice convective burst going up over the NE quadrant. Probably too late to correspond to much of a pressure fall, but the deepening convection moving over land may translate to wind gusts mixing down with more force for places like Houma, Amelia and Morgan City as the eyewall passes over. Agreed. Wish this was closer to the radar, but there are mesovortices evident in the northern eyewall that are almost certainly enhancing winds on the meso-beta scale. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 This is quite impressive given the environment. Definitely defying the guidance that had decay at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 [mention=2227]wthrmn654[/mention] The onshore flow is going to be a problem for areas east of the eye. Those places you posted are experiencing offshore flow. I'd focus on eastern Terrebonne Parish, Montegut, Chauvin, especially Coco Marina at the end of Little Caillou Rd, and points further east, for worst surge presently based on current motion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Category two now with max sustained winds of 100mph 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Did not expect this!!!000WTNT31 KNHC 112056TCPAT1BULLETINHurricane Francine Advisory Number 13NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024400 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024...FRANCINE BECOMES A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE AS THE EYE APPROACHES THE LOUISIANA COAST......LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADINGONTO THE LOUISIANA COAST...SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...29.2N 91.5WABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANAABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANAMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 2 minutes ago, Windspeed said: [mention=2227]wthrmn654[/mention] The onshore flow is going to be a problem for areas east of the eye. Those places you posted are experiencing offshore flow. I'd focus on Terrebonne Parish, Montegut, Chauvin, especially Coco Marina at the end of Little Caillou Rd, and points further east, for worst surge presently based on current motion. areas to the east, are well below guidance as well the one that shows 13 ft is well east but its only at 7 and its no where near flood stage, in fact most areas are forecast only minor if even that. timing was a big plus 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 areas to the east, are well below guidance as well the one that shows 13 ft is well east but its only at 7 and its no where near flood stage, in fact most areas are forecast only minor if even that. timing was a big plusI should have prefaced that it's also a bit early. Let the eyewall come ashore and give the datasets time to update. Hope that the surge is mitigated, but these are unknowns. We'll just have to hope for the best and wait and see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 latest nhc dicussion, The new track guidance is a little faster than for the previous advisory, so the new forecast track is similar to, but faster than, the previous track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Just now, Windspeed said: 2 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: areas to the east, are well below guidance as well the one that shows 13 ft is well east but its only at 7 and its no where near flood stage, in fact most areas are forecast only minor if even that. timing was a big plus I should have prefaced that it's also a bit early. Let the eyewall come ashore and give the datasets time to update. Hope that the surge is mitigated, but these are unknowns. We'll just have to hope for the best and wait and see. i get that but its also Realtime data updated either hourly or every 15 minutes. faster moving storm, hitting at dead low time, its a double win, and thats a good thing! rain and wind though, nothing going stop that unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 god dam! 985.2MB 88mph gust . this station going get hammered. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 9 minutes ago, Windspeed said: 11 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: areas to the east, are well below guidance as well the one that shows 13 ft is well east but its only at 7 and its no where near flood stage, in fact most areas are forecast only minor if even that. timing was a big plus I should have prefaced that it's also a bit early. Let the eyewall come ashore and give the datasets time to update. Hope that the surge is mitigated, but these are unknowns. We'll just have to hope for the best and wait and see. im sure you familiar but heres what ive been looking at, make sure to select partner and the other station options as thats nws ones... realtime data apparently according to the site. like you said eastern areas, they had minor flooding stages for the past 2 high tides but barely at that. tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inundationdb/cidstorm.html?stormname=Francine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Only did the one call on this yesterday, but if I we're to do a Final today as usual I would go 90mph at landfall...maybe 85. How bout a Hundy ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: How bout a Hundy ! another storm doing opposite of what was expected didnt go crazy strong like some models suggested then when its suppose to be weakening from bad enviromental conditions, its holding and strengthening! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 981.3mb! 987 to 981 in 29 minutes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Wild that LIX hasn't upgraded their Hurricane Watches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 only 12nm away from station at ground zero, seems more rare then common to have hurricane actually go over or near a weather station. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Surge is starting to move into Dulac per chaser Aaron Jayjack. Hope he didn't make a bad decision by going too far south. He's normally pretty savvy. But if he gets cutoff south of Dulac, he'll have to ride out the surge in place as it continues to rise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Looks like we should have landfall into LA marshlands south of Morgan City by 6:00 EDT update. Heading towards Houma and then New Orleans with right front quadrant. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 21 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Surge is starting to move into Dulac per chaser Aaron Jayjack. Hope he didn't make a bad decision by going too far south. He's normally pretty savvy. But if he gets cutoff south of Dulac, he'll have to ride out the surge in place as it continues to rise. dulac is the only station that i have seen that forecast and current match, no lie and i do expect them to see surge, there in the red zone of areas and do have a water level station though its mising a forcast thats shows flood levels. Mississippi River Delta Basin at Bayou Grand Caillou at Dulac (noaa.gov) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 22 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Is it just me or is intesification before landfall occurring with all of these storms now? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 https://x.com/Wh_So_Serious/status/1833985859735183476?t=zbM83aZxARpDVp322rUKKg&s=19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 station got as low as 978.6mb winds are even starting to lower pressure might be going up now but wow i expect it to go lower! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 90.6knots gust measured (104 mph) 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 689 WTNT61 KNHC 112157 TCUAT1 Hurricane Francine Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 500 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 ...FRANCINE MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...500 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE... Francine has made landfall in southern Louisiana in the Parish of Terrebonne, about 30 miles south-southwest of Morgan City, as a Category 2 hurricane. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 100 mph (155 km/h). A NOS station located on Eugene Island recently reported a peak gust of 105 mph (169 km/h). The minimum pressure measured at that location was 976 mb (28.82 inches). Heavy rains and hurricane-force winds are spreading inland across southern Louisiana. Now is the time to stay inside and away from windows. Have multiple ways to receive warnings and updates. Another position update will be provided at 600 PM CDT (2300 UTC). SUMMARY OF 500 PM CDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.3N 91.3W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM WSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 19 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Is it just me or is intesification before landfall occurring with all of these storms now? Global warming. **runs and hides** 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 This definitely looks cat 2 https://x.com/davis_wx/status/1833988239671062551?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 looks like lowest pressure recorded will be 976mb unless it drops more wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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