wthrmn654 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Looks like one of the AF low level recon flights ended very early they only took off did a small circle just offshore then returned to base. So as it stands we have no more recons at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Only did the one call on this yesterday, but if I we're to do a Final today as usual I would go 90mph at landfall...maybe 85. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Tornado watch coming for SE LA. Meanwhile the pressure is hovering between 1008-1009mb here at my location. Still pretty calm. Mesoscale Discussion 2052 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Areas affected...portions of southern and eastern Louisiana into southern Mississippi Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 111728Z - 111900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The threat for at least a few tornadoes is increasing across portions of southern LA into far southern MS. A Tornado Watch issuance will be needed soon. DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery has shown a gradual increase in the intensity of convective cells embedded within the broader rainbands associated with Hurricane Francine, which are attempting to move ashore. Surface temperatures/dewpoints in southeastern LA are in the upper 70s/mid 70s F, which are contributing to 500+ J/kg MLCAPE. At the same time, low-level shear continues to increase along the Gulf Coast, with the HDC VAD profiler showing increasingly curved hodographs, with nearly 200 m2/s2 0-3 km SRH noted. Low-level shear should continue to increase through the afternoon, with a subsequent increase in tornado potential likely as well. Given the increasing severe risk, a Tornado Watch issuance will be needed soon. ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 09/11/2024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 12 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Looks like one of the AF low level recon flights ended very early they only took off did a small circle just offshore then returned to base. So as it stands we have no more recons at the moment They turned back toward the storm. Approaching the center now. Peak SFMR of 72kt so far. Will wait until the pass completes for pressure data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Yup, looks pretty steady state to me on this pass. Extrapolated pressure of 974.9mb in the center with peak FL winds between 85-88kt. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Looks like landfall near or a little east of Atchafalaya Wildlife Management Area then passing in between Morgan City and Houma (closer to Houma) as it moves inland later this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 97 knots 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Keep in mind these oil rig observations are taken in some cases a couple hundred feet above the water. These will be substantially higher than what is observed on land. I can see some mixing down in gusts in the strongest convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: They turned back toward the storm. Approaching the center now. Peak SFMR of 72kt so far. Will wait until the pass completes for pressure data. so weird they must of had a malfunction but fixed it Cause on tidbits it said mission finished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 looks like degrading last couple frames with that punch on the right side ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 this cant be accurate estimate of wind/pressure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 got to about 80knots and held Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 64 knots gusting to 79 knots is very close to shore now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Eyewall is moving onshore in the marshes now. Nothing crazy from chasers yet but I’d expect hurricane conditions within next 45 min for those near the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 It looks like the storm is making a jog east as it interacts with land. Might bring hurricane conditions to New Orleans 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 4pm est mini update, things flying northeast at 17 mph.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 with how fast she's flying now couldn't this be a positive sign in terms of storm surge/ flooding severity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 1 hour ago, wthrmn654 said: looks like degrading last couple frames with that punch on the right side ? That’s the eye 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Station Home Page - NOAA Tides & Currents 989mb pressure and winds gusting over 60 knots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 im looking at any station that does tide measurements, im not seeing any in any kind of flood stage, in fact its low tide right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 minor flooding by shell beach,LA but its trending down right now... could the speed of the storm, and timing of coming to shore a possible saving grace???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Current motion def brings this over NO. Sliding way east now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 are tides running lower then forecast??? actual verus forecast amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Eye clearing out a bit right at landfall. Nice convective burst going up over the NE quadrant. Probably too late to correspond to much of a pressure fall, but the deepening convection moving over land may translate to wind gusts mixing down with more force for places like Houma, Amelia and Morgan City as the eyewall passes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 6 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: are tides running lower then forecast??? actual verus forecast amounts. This area has offshore flow, pulling the water out. It's also close to low tide now. Next high tide isn't until 3-4AM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 low tide is 433pm edt, shes coming ashore at dead low time, great news for most areas that are developed for sure. super duper news, 2 buoys are active and will be nearly ground zero for eye! and there pressures are dropping rapidly! the following are 2 stations in order of closest to storm to the 2nd closest NDBC - Station EINL1 Recent Data (noaa.gov) NDBC - Station AMRL1 Recent Data (noaa.gov) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 99kt FL wind on the latest VDM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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