WxWatcher007 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Last VDM had a FL wind of 102kt so despite the conditions Francine more than held its own until landfall. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 I remember when every gulf system weakened into landfall and the conversations on here were the opposite… Pretty crazy run of last second intensifying storms. This might have been a product of perfect timing with a convective burst more so than large scale influences but definitely getting hairy videos all over social media now. This one will verify cat 2 on land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Pressure here down to 1001mb with the wind gradually picking up. Nothing that impressive yet other than the clouds off the deck absolutely screaming by. Edit: but the power is flickering more 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 The path Francine took brought it over some the hottest SST's in the GOM. Definitely was a factor in RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Business definitely picking up now lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 I just looked at data stations and the pressure gradient looks tighter than I expected with how sheared it has become. Looks like Francine has a solid core. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Just recorded a gust of 40.1mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FredRed Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Here is one day make site for recon hd visuals... updates every minute! Used Claude Sonnet and built in one day... started this morning. Hover along the legend to filter winds at that speed... Hurricane Reconnaissance Viewer (hurricane-recon-viewer.replit.app) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 New Orleans International Airport already recorded a couple of gusts over 60 mph. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 Listening to New Orleans, fire dispatch numerous wires calls and I heard two trees on dwellings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gallopinggertie Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 1 hour ago, gymengineer said: New Orleans International Airport already recorded a couple of gusts over 60 mph. I just saw that. So it’s odd that in the 8pm update, the NHC highlighted the obs from the Lakefront Airport that were just 37 mph with a gust of 49. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 Tides are manageable thankfully minus the areas to the right and closest to center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 Man that wind blowing all that water in the lake west and all that intense rain. That’s gonna be a good test for the levees when it shifts west. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: How bout a Hundy ! Yea, I didn't expect that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 52 minutes ago, gallopinggertie said: I just saw that. So it’s odd that in the 8pm update, the NHC highlighted the obs from the Lakefront Airport that were just 37 mph with a gust of 49. And, add in at 8:20 pm CT a 49 mph/G 78 mph report from New Orleans International. I wonder if there’s something I’m missing about the observations from the airport that is considered “non-standard?” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 8 minutes ago, gymengineer said: And, add in at 8:20 pm CT a 49 mph/G 78 mph report from New Orleans International. I wonder if there’s something I’m missing about the observations from the airport that is considered “non-standard?” That's impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 19 minutes ago, mob1 said: That's impressive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 Flashes all night here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 This storm must be drawing from upper level jet energy bc holy moly it went “poof” on satellite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 Is Francine really slowing down over Louisiana dumping a lot of torrential rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FredRed Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 Looking at the track error... (would really appreciate someone validating these numbers...) happy to send the logic Enhanced Model Accuracy Comparison (atcf-model-error-viewer.replit.app) UKM (UK Met Office model): Consistently predicts the storm too far east in the first 60 hours Shifts to a southern bias around 60-66 hours Ends with a northwestern bias at 72-84 hours Average error: 44.97 miles (lowest among all models) EGRR: Similar to UKM, with an eastern bias early on Transitions to a northeastern then southeastern bias Ends with a southern then northwestern bias Average error: 46.12 miles OFCL (Official Forecast): Initially has a south-southwestern bias Transitions to a northwestern bias after 36 hours Shows increasing westward bias in later hours Average error: 47.00 miles UKMI and UKM2: Start with southern biases Shift to eastern or southwestern biases mid-forecast End with strong northwestern biases Average errors: 51.12 and 51.22 miles respectively EGR2: Similar pattern to UKMI and UKM2 Ends with a strong northwestern bias Average error: 54.22 miles DRCL: Consistent southern to western bias throughout Large western errors in later forecast hours Average error: 55.53 miles OFCI: Southern bias initially Transitions to a persistent west-northwestern bias Average error: 55.73 miles HFSA (likely HWRF): Consistent south-southeastern bias in early hours Gradually shifts to southwestern then western bias Errors increase with forecast time Average error: 58.01 miles EGRI: Initially southern bias Shifts between eastern and northwestern biases Ends with a strong northern component Average error: 58.20 miles HFAI: Persistent southern bias early on Transitions to a western bias in later hours Average error: 62.99 miles Overall trends: Most models show a tendency to predict the storm too far south and east in early hours. Many models transition to a western or northwestern bias in later forecast periods. The UKM and EGRR models have the lowest average errors. HFSA and HFAI show larger errors, especially in extended forecasts. There's significant variability in model performance, with average errors ranging from about 45 to 63 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 Reed Timmer video. https://x.com/i/status/1834032549254873472 Impressive. Solid high end Cat 1. Impressive Surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 Another video from Brett Adair. https://x.com/i/status/1834049290219532476 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 On 9/10/2024 at 10:28 AM, wthrmn654 said: Upper divergence Lower convergence Kudos for catching this. I interpreted that as a bit for a red flag on my call for appreciable wearing prior to LF, but ultimately ignored and at my own peril, as it turns out. Francine intensified precisely under that area of upper divergence just prior to landfall, which negated the negative influence of the dry air/shear via enhanced evacuation of air aloft IMO. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/09/hurricane-francine-strikes-louisiana.html Call it a C+ since I nailed the track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 Overall, how did they do down south? Heard on TV wind wasn't really a thing is now water, mostly fresh water or fresh and salt? Haven't paid much attention honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 2 hours ago, wthrmn654 said: Overall, how did they do down south? Heard on TV wind wasn't really a thing is now water, mostly fresh water or fresh and salt? Haven't paid much attention honestly. From my vantage point it was a legit hurricane but most got through fine wind wise. A lot of outages and modest damage, but that’s to be expected with an intensifying 2 at landfall imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: From my vantage point it was a legit hurricane but most got through fine wind wise. A lot of outages and modest damage, but that’s to be expected with an intensifying 2 at landfall imo. Exactly that's what I eat heading on weather Channel, had they had a high tide at exact time of hit and maybe a little slower I think flood damage may of been 5x worse. Waters more destructive then most think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 2 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Exactly that's what I eat heading on weather Channel, had they had a high tide at exact time of hit and maybe a little slower I think flood damage may of been 5x worse. Waters more destructive then most think That’s why I don’t usually chase at the immediate coastline. I prefer wind, not water. (Except for Florence lol) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now