NavarreDon Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 That evening convective burst might just send Francine over the edge into hurricane status.000WTNT31 KNHC 102330TCPAT1BULLETINHurricane Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 9ANWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024700 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024...FRANCINE BECOMES A HURRICANE......LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY...SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION----------------------------------------------LOCATION...25.8N 94.8WABOUT 150 MI...240 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDEABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANAMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 Officially a hurricane now. Pressure starting to tumble now 000 WTNT31 KNHC 102330 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 700 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 ...FRANCINE BECOMES A HURRICANE... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.8N 94.8W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 If I lived in Gulfport, MS I would be paying attention. But I live in Gulfport, FL and we will be watching from here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Finally able to look at stuff. We’re starting to see more substantial pressure falls and perhaps structural improvements as drier air mixes out, but evidence suggests that the vortex is a bit tilted in response to shear. As @40/70 Benchmark wrote earlier, tonight is the time when we likely see a peak when most favorable conditions align. It’s delicate though—dry air entrainment could slow or halt any significant intensification tonight. I don’t think the vortex tilting matters as much yet. The organization of the inner core has an impact on tomorrow’s landfall intensity imo. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Also, in LA. Will post updates as I can. 23 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: This is WxWatcher007 reporting live from Gonzales, LA, just southeast of Baton Rouge. It was a long travel day—much longer than I thought at just under 2,000 miles, as I decided to adjust my staging point well east of Lafayette before my flight early this morning. Here the vibe is quite relaxed, much more than usual. Perhaps it’s the fact that Louisiana has been a magnet for some of the strongest hurricanes in recent memory. In fact, on my way to Gonzalez I passed through Iowa, LA, where I spent hours in the northeast eyewall of the extraordinary beast that was Laura. Francine is now a hurricane, and at the risk of sounding like Josh I’m not terribly enthused. Francine is intensifying, but it is fighting dry air and now shear as it makes the turn NE and heads toward the coast. Tonight is when more significant intensification could occur so I’m watching closely. Dry air and shear could easily blunt that. It’s warm and humid here with some light rain and occasionally gusty winds. I should be able to rest tonight as the action is subject to take place tomorrow. I’m closely watching the track. I think I’m in a good spot, and I chose this location in large part for its highway access to quickly get west or east if necessary. Baton Rouge is 30 minutes west. New Orleans is an hour east. By contrast, Morgan City is 90 minutes south. Obviously it’s closer to the coast so best of luck to the chasers there. I’d rather not have to report from Mississippi tomorrow, but we’ll see. As is usually the case, I’ll post when I can. @MillvilleWx is in contact with me and will let y’all know I’m ok if I lose power/cell service. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 wow, measured wind 45 kt gusting to 57 kt in the Gulf of Mexico, at the eyewall, probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Looks like a mid tier cat 1 LF to me. Sticking with 80-90 mph peak and don’t see anything to suggest this is going to exceed that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Dam she picked up speed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 now 57kt gusting to 67 kt at the same station I mentioned before, over 150 miles east of Brownsville 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND FRANCINE HAS STRENGTHENED...Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that Francine has strengthened, with maximum sustained winds near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 So far, the organization phase has continued without much disruption. As many here noted, now that Francine is accelerating away from the western Gulf coastline and no longer competing with the MCV like convection as it was earlier, it is in a more moist environment and taking advantage of very high OHC. Here you can see persistent deep convection—the kind that led to the early development of an eye yesterday—rotating into the center. Aloft, winds are responding with continued pressure falls and clear organization of a new inner core. Recon is now finding FL winds peaking between 85-89kts and a dropsonde confirmed pressure of 980mb. Critically, the latest VDM had this remark: EYEWALL HAS 75 PERCENT COVERAGE AROUND THE EYE AND IS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE ORGANIZED THAN ON PREVIOUS PASS The next few hours will be interesting. The earlier hurricane models got very aggressive while other guidance was more modest, due to the impact of dry air entrainment and shear. For now at least. The runway looks the clearest it has been for some level of takeoff, but time is limited. A more hostile environment before landfall awaits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Satellite remarkably improving now. Much more symmetrical looking and nice CDO expanding and cooling. Might see this overachieve a bit in short term before it levels off or weakens near landfall as that shear/wind shear catches Francine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 The final recon pass tonight found ~977 mb with a dropsonde. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 The eye is evident on KHGX radar, but it’s hard to assess the actual structure at this distance. A new recon flight has just taken off so we’ll see what they find. Hurricane models continue to be very aggressive on on balance in the hours right before landfall with a strong inner core about 10mb deeper than the current pressure. Very deep convection continues at/near the center, and you can see how the jet interaction is helping this ventilate efficiently. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Beautiful radar presentation. Might be able to achieve low end cat 2 status briefly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Extrapolated pressure down to 969.2mb in the latest data batch. Edit: 968.3 extrapolated in the next set of data. Not seeing any impressive wind data yet, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Almost cat 2 per the 5 am update! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 First VDM came in with a pressure of 975mb, but again, nothing particularly impressive on the winds front. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Definitely a large area of strong winds in the SE quadrant based on buoy observations. We often see this in storms with trough interaction. Going to be a good blow for SE LA. One thing I would be on the lookout for is surge east of the center with said winds and captured fetch. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 7 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Definitely a large area of strong winds in the SE quadrant based on buoy observations. We often see this in storms with trough interaction. Going to be a good blow for SE LA. One thing I would be on the lookout for is surge east of the center with said winds and captured fetch. Yeah east side is looking pretty solid with the latest data. Let’s see what happens with future fixes. The eye looks well defined on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Based on the new recon data from the east/southeast side, 90 mph may be generous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Satellite and radar don’t look that impressive to me. Seems like some shear and dry air is impinging on the southern side of the eye wall. It made a decent run overnight anyways. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Recon doesn’t support 80 kts. Might be leveling off. From here, oceanic heat decreases while shear increases. As someone noted, these jet enhanced storms tend to have a strong SE quadrant as it’s in line with the enhancement, very evident here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 90mph peak....AWT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Wind…who cares…? All about surge. Yea…even in a cat 1 in this part of the world…Modest 3 ft with proper fetch transforms the look of SE LA. Let’s watch…. https://coast.noaa.gov/slr/#/layer/slr/3/-10114013.53249664/3562572.3384631854/6/satellite/none/0.8/2050/interHigh/midAccretion 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 19 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Wind…who cares…? All about surge. Yea…even in a cat 1 in this part of the world…Modest 3 ft with proper fetch transforms the look of SE LA. Let’s watch…. https://coast.noaa.gov/slr/#/layer/slr/3/-10114013.53249664/3562572.3384631854/6/satellite/none/0.8/2050/interHigh/midAccretion Agree, but I just mean for purposes of verification. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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