Radtechwxman Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 Looks like we are getting decent pressure drops again. Probably will see a hurricane later this morning or early afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 Current Intensity Analysis UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 9.1 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 10 SEP 2024 Time : 121020 UTC Lat : 24:41:55 N Lon : 96:04:15 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 2.3 /1001.6mb/ 33.0kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 2.2 2.6 2.7 Center Temp : -12.7C Cloud Region Temp : -47.5C Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.62 ARC in LT GRAY Subtropical Adjustment : OFF Extratropical Adjustment : OFF Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour Weakening Flag : ON Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs : - Average 34 knot radii : 92nmi - Environmental MSLP : 1010mb Satellite Name : GOES16 Satellite Viewing Angle : 37.1 degrees 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 Lower level water vapor Mid level water vapor Upper level water vapor (The first 2 maybe backwards just fyi) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 It need to get rid of that blob of convection to the NE and work out that dry air. There might be a small window for it to really pick up steam. The eastward ticks are sort of interesting for NoLa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 49 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think its going to become as strong as some were speculating. Should still be a hurricane, though. The operative word in my statement was relative. Almost all prognostications have kept this a cat 1, around 85mph. I still think it has a good shot of becoming a hurricane which would be in line with the expectation. Could be wrong, but if it reaches hurricane status it’s not a bust. just because some people speculate, doesn’t mean that’s what the official forecast was. And we all know model guidance varies widely with every storm. Most topped it out as a cat 2 and I didn’t see one official forecast going to cat 2. Highest was 100, which may end up too high, but again, not by much. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It need to get rid of that blob of convection to the NE and work out that dry air. There might be a small window for it to really pick up steam. The eastward ticks are sort of interesting for NoLa. Also gives it more time over water, and may even strengthen somewhat over the Bayou Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: First of all, many were speculating on a 3 and some guidance was even hinting at 4. Secondly, I think cat 2 is a reach at this point. I think maybe 100mph is the ceiling, which jives with the NHC stating that their 100mph forecast was at the high end of guidance. Fair assessment, I still believe category two is still within reach which is I believe 95 or better, but just once again, my own thoughts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 25 minutes ago, BoulderWX said: Almost all prognostications have kept this a cat 1, around 85mph. I still think it has a good shot of becoming a hurricane which would be in line with the expectation. Could be wrong, but if it reaches hurricane status it’s not a bust. just because some people speculate, doesn’t mean that’s what the official forecast was. And we all know model guidance varies widely with every storm. Most topped it out as a cat 2 and I didn’t see one official forecast going to cat 2. Highest was 100, which may end up too high, but again, not by much. I think What he's saying is, the cat 1 / cat 2 with a couple cat 3, estimates that we saw yesterday on some models at one point were over done. If it's a cat 1 borderline cat 2 that's reasonable, as of this morning... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 4 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: I think What he's saying is, the cat 1 / cat 2 with a couple cat 3, estimates that we saw yesterday on some models at one point were over done. If it's a cat 1 borderline cat 2 that's reasonable, as of this morning... Yea, I didn't think it was that difficult to grasp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 Outside of the “weird” apparent eyewall development yesterday, this storm has panned out almost exactly as expected. It’s taken a while for the broad circulation to tighten and that appears to be happening this morning. I’d expect steady strengthening until the shear increases towards landfall, with weakening whenever that occurs. A turn to the NE may limit the shear due to a more conducive vector but seeing up to 30 kts of shear, with dry continental air, screams a half a cane landfall. I’m still sticking to my 80-90 mph max and landfall likely near that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Outside of the “weird” apparent eyewall development yesterday, this storm has panned out almost exactly as expected. It’s taken a while for the broad circulation to tighten and that appears to be happening this morning. I’d expect steady strengthening until the shear increases towards landfall, with weakening whenever that occurs. A turn to the NE may limit the shear due to a more conducive vector but seeing up to 30 kts of shear, with dry continental air, screams a half a cane landfall. I’m still sticking to my 80-90 mph max and landfall likely near that In terms of the consensus, I agree...this is why I qualified my statement with the term "relative".....all that was meant was the window for higher end that appeared to be opening a bit yesterday has closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: It need to get rid of that blob of convection to the NE and work out that dry air. There might be a small window for it to really pick up steam. The eastward ticks are sort of interesting for NoLa. I think the best window for intensification will be overnight tonight, as it gets a bit further from mainland MX and perhaps passess over an eddy of very high TCHP before the more hostile conditions set in tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 I think it looks okay for a TS nearing cane strength....not great. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 The only question or possibly concern is: the whole fully separation of the 2 big cloud masses that's not showing right now and is that dry air north of or slightly north west of the center to? If it is will that be drawn into it later on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said: The only question or possibly concern is: the whole fully separation of the 2 big cloud masses that's not showing right now and is that dry air north of or slightly north west of the center to? If it is will that be drawn into it later on? That other blob is a non-starter for any RI....take that clear off of the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: That other blob is a non-starter for any RI....take that clear off of the table. I was kinda assuming that since it become less joined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 Not the best shear maps cause it's not really showing the storm well, will get better one. Will be interesting to see how she does plowing north east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said: Not the best shear maps cause it's not really showing the storm well, will get better one. Will be interesting to see how she does plowing north east. I think that tells you all you ned to know about the degradation of the envt. on approach to the coast tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 Upper divergence Lower convergence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think that tells you all you ned to know about the degradation of the envt. on approach to the coast tomorrow. A picture is worth a thousand words. That environment is very hostile tomorrow. I would not be surprised if a tornado watch is issued for areas east of landfall. This setup has all the makings for tornadic activity in the outer bands. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 3 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Upper divergence Lower convergence A well ventilated blob! I wonder if this feature imparts a bit of a Fujiwara effect and pulls Francine a little more East. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted September 10 Author Share Posted September 10 Here is James Van Fleet's discussion: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7239270198455783424/ I'll suggest a central pressure of 970-975mb. Perhaps that's close to a category 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 3 hours ago, CurlyHeadBarrett said: Florence? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 Latest NHC cone has a notable jump east for landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 New Orleans should definitely keep a very close eye on this storm. The circulation is rather broad, however, if it were to find a way to tighten, this has the potentially to ramp up rather quickly. Outlier solution in this scenario, but one that should be watched for the next 24 or so hours. Of course, if it finds a way to tighten up, this could also spare most of New Orleans to the West. Just something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 17 minutes ago, smokeybandit said: Latest NHC cone has a notable jump east for landfall. Yep, that's about a 40 mile shift east, which is pretty significant, especially for New Orleans, if any additional shifts east occur. It's also interesting to note the bolded part below from the NHC discussion, wherein they show that the forecasted peak intensity of the storm hasn't really changed from the 85 knot/100 mph forecast from earlier - it's just that the points on the map they choose to display now shows an implied max of 80 knots/90 mph. Three things I wish the NHC would do: i) provide a zoomed in map of the landfall area, so one can see more details (and more easily see run to run shifts), which are hard to see when looking at maps that are 2000 miles across, ii) provide a finer continuum of forecast locations/winds, so one doesn't "miss" intensity peaks (or dips) and iii) label the track maps at the points shown with the forecast wind speeds instead of the limited S/H/M labels, which aren't detailed enough. Tropical Storm Francine Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 However, there has been an eastward shift of the guidance since the last advisory, and thus the new forecast track is also shifted eastward. In response to this eastward shift in track and southeastern wind radii, the hurricane warning in Louisiana was extended eastward at 12Z, and this advisory has new tropical storm warnings and watches for the coasts of Mississippi and Alabama. Francine has about 24-30 h to strengthen over warm water before it encounters strong shear near the Louisiana coast. While there is a possibility that dry air entrainment could reduce the intensification rate, the intensity continues to call for steady to rapid strengthening during this time based on the otherwise favorable conditions. While it is not explicitly shown in the latest forecast, the cyclone could reach a peak intensity near 85 kt between the 24 h point and landfall. Intensification is expected to stop before landfall, and rapid weakening is expected after landfall. The global models show the remnants of Francine dissipating after 96 h, and the intensity forecast follows that scenario. Overall, the intensity forecast is at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 24.9N 95.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 26.0N 94.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 27.8N 93.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 29.9N 91.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/1200Z 32.2N 90.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 60H 13/0000Z 34.6N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 13/1200Z 35.8N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1200Z 37.0N 90.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 Official forecast shifts east and continues to be progged as a Cat 1 at landfall. Everything seems to be on track intensity wise. 65 mph at last update 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 10 Share Posted September 10 Hurricane hunters saw 990, then 988 them the last 2 passes by 2 planes it raised back up to about 990 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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