Hurricane Francine

[purduewx80]

Truly perplexed as to what y’all weenies were expecting. The globals have consistently shown modest strengthening until late tomorrow when it starts to accelerate to the northeast. There is no reason to expect RI tonight. 

[GaWx]

18Z Euro: quite a bit faster as it landfalls at 4PM CDT on Wednesday vs the 12Z’s 11 PM CDT; strength at landfall the same though at 977 mb; keep in mind though that initialization is up at 1003 mb

[Jebman]

2 hours ago, USCG RS said:

The next 24-36 Hrs look rather conducive for strengthening. LA should watch out. That withstanding, I do wonder if a quicker intensification pulls this West. 

We have really dry air over us in Aus, should keep Francine well southeast, though I feel exceedingly bad for Louisiana. Its 87/50 here with relative humidities 35 percent. Feels very early November like for us south Texans lol. It got down to 53/46 this morning at 5am!!!!!

[nycwinter]

yesterday nhc did not expect much if any intensifying until tomorrow clearly they were off

[wthrmn654]

Last pass had best winds closest to center 45-50 knots close to 60 mph. 

[wthrmn654]

Former nhc guy on weather Channel speaks reality finally,  dry air wrapping into storm,  could affect intensity down the road possibly but will have to wait to see just what affect it has. 

[wthrmn654]

[wthrmn654]

 

 

[Radtechwxman]

7 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Former nhc guy on weather Channel speaks reality finally,  dry air wrapping into storm,  could affect intensity down the road possibly but will have to wait to see just what affect it has. 

Agreed. But odd dry air issues weren't forecast till closer till landfall. Last nhc discussion even talked about favorable moist environment for Francine. Seems kind of unexpected at least this early. 

[wthrmn654]

3 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said:

Agreed. But odd dry air issues weren't forecast till closer till landfall. Last nhc discussion even talked about favorable moist environment for Francine. Seems kind of unexpected at least this early. 

It's extremely close to the coast, an area that's been extremely hot all summer, and semi dryer environment ( I'm not totally sure on moisture levels to the west of the coast per say) . There's quite a bit of dry air to the north west of Francine too.. Look what happened to the storm that hit Bermuda,  countless dry air that wasn't exactly forecasted,  something very hard to perdict imo.

[wthrmn654]

A lot of dry air to the north and also the west but the west side isn't easily shown.  Weather channels talking in depth right now about it. 

 

 

 

 

[wthrmn654]

9 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said:

Agreed. But odd dry air issues weren't forecast till closer till landfall. Last nhc discussion even talked about favorable moist environment for Francine. Seems kind of unexpected at least this early. 

Like you said,  everything is almost opposite what they were saying earlier, be interesting to see what they find at the 11 on update! 


With the forming inner-core earlier observed by recon and still seen 
on radar currently, the tropical storm appears poised to intensify 
more significantly in the short term. Given the low vertical wind 
shear, ample moisture, and very warm sea-surface temperatures, a 
faster rate of intensification is shown over the next 36 h, and 
Francine is now forecast to become a hurricane tonight or tomorrow 
morning, and a Category 2 hurricane by Wednesday. In the final 
12-18 h before landfall, shear is expected to increase markedly, 
which will likely halt the intensification, though Francine is 
expected to be a Category 2 hurricane at landfall. Rapid weakening 
is expected after the system moves inland. The NHC intensity 
forecast is on the upper-end of the overall intensity guidance, but 
still is lower than some of the hurricane-regional model guidance 
(HAFS-B, HMON).

[Radtechwxman]

That really has got into the core and majorly disrupted it. This could definitely hold the ceiling back till landfall if the dry air can't be mixed out. 

[wthrmn654]

Honestly, if the dry air story doesn't resolve itself,  it maybe a now casting event... but it still has a day to get her butt in gear. 

 

11pm update,  speed held,  movement speed down to 5 mph at north north west.. pressure is down to 992, somehow...

[wthrmn654]

 

After strengthening this afternoon, Francine's intensity appears to 
have leveled off for now.  Around 18Z today, microwave images 
indicated that the storm had a closed low-level eyewall and a 
relatively symmetric cloud pattern.  However, an intrusion of dry 
air has caused the inner core convection to degrade.  The Air Force 
and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been investigating Francine 
this evening and have found that the maximum winds have changed 
little from earlier and remain around 55 kt.  However, the minimum 
pressure reported from the aircraft has dropped to 992 mb, which 
could indicate that strengthening will resume soon. The outer 
rainbands to the west and northwest of the center are very near the 
coast of northeastern Mexico and extreme southern Texas, and there 
are likely tropical-storm-force winds in those bands.

Environmental conditions are forecast to remain quite favorable for
strengthening along Francine's path for the next 24 hours, with very
warm ocean waters while remaining in a low wind shear environment.
The SHIPS RII index for rapid intensification over the next 24 hours
has decreased a little due to some dry air in the environment around
Francine.  The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous
one, and lies near the high end of the intensity guidance suite.
Just prior to landfall, Francine should encounter increasing
west-southwesterly vertical wind shear, which will likely end the
intensification trend.  Rapid weakening is expected after the storm
moves inland.

[Radtechwxman]

13 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Honestly, if the dry air story doesn't resolve itself,  it maybe a now casting event... but it still has a day to get her butt in gear. 

 

11pm update,  speed held,  movement speed down to 5 mph at north north west.. pressure is down to 992, somehow...

Totally agree. Ernesto was never able to truly take off due to its inner core plagued by dry air despite favorable shear and SST's. 

[WxWatcher007]

I think the early development of an eye surprised everyone, but the current issues are not surprising.

It’s important to remember that despite the exceptionally high level RI systems we’ve seen since 2017, for most TCs development and intensification are not linear, and development and intensification can be two separate things.

Nascent eyes are just that—yeah they can herald taking off or intensification, but they’re fragile because developing a mid and then fully developed eye is part of the development stage. When convection started declining from the peak earlier that was a flag that intensification was likely to slow. Dry air is going to be nearby because of both the boundary to the north and the continental dry air that’s often accompanying TCs in the Gulf. 

I think the key thing to watch is organization not intensity (read: wind). Are pressures continuing to drop? Is the eye ragged, or becoming wrapped fully with convection? Is the RMW tightening and are we seeing greater temperature contrasts in the eye?

That’s going to tell us what direction things are going. Tonight the signals are mixed, not uncommon of systems at this stage of development. 

[wthrmn654]

27 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think the early development of an eye surprised everyone, but the current issues are not surprising.

It’s important to remember that despite the exceptionally high level RI systems we’ve seen since 2017, for most TCs development and intensification are not linear, and development and intensification can be two separate things.

Nascent eyes are just that—yeah they can herald taking off or intensification, but they’re fragile because developing a mid and then fully developed eye is part of the development stage. When convection started declining from the peak earlier that was a flag that intensification was likely to slow. Dry air is going to be nearby because of both the boundary to the north and the continental dry air that’s often accompanying TCs in the Gulf. 

I think the key thing to watch is organization not intensity (read: wind). Are pressures continuing to drop? Is the eye ragged, or becoming wrapped fully with convection? Is the RMW tightening and are we seeing greater temperature contrasts in the eye?

That’s going to tell us what direction things are going. Tonight the signals are mixed, not uncommon of systems at this stage of development. 

If the pressures keep dropping but winds don't respond  similar to Ernesto, then I'd be concerned. All bets on the table now

[wthrmn654]

 

[wthrmn654]

 

 

[Floydbuster]

 

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET: similar LA landfall location/strength followed by NNE move to E MS; then N move to far W KY followed by dissipation near IL/IN border

TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE   ANALYSED POSITION : 24.1N  96.3W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062024

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 10.09.2024    0  24.1N  96.3W     1002            41
    1200UTC 10.09.2024   12  24.7N  95.4W      999            35
    0000UTC 11.09.2024   24  26.3N  94.2W      995            33
    1200UTC 11.09.2024   36  28.4N  92.6W      991            49
    0000UTC 12.09.2024   48  30.2N  90.4W      991            37
    1200UTC 12.09.2024   60  32.7N  89.5W      995            26
    0000UTC 13.09.2024   72  35.3N  89.1W      997            21
    1200UTC 13.09.2024   84  36.5N  89.1W     1001            15
    0000UTC 14.09.2024   96  37.7N  87.9W     1007            17
    1200UTC 14.09.2024  108  38.9N  88.5W     1011            17
    0000UTC 15.09.2024  120              CEASED TRACKING

[CurlyHeadBarrett]

[olafminesaw]

Trying to rotate hot towers around the center, has a chance to push the dry air out of the core if it continues

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think Francine is going to be a relative bust, which is a microcosm of the season.....there is a reason why I have jumped to blog about it. I will probably put a one-and-done post out today, though.

[thunderbolt]

35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think Francine is going to be a relative bust, which is a microcosm of the season.....there is a reason why I have jumped to blog about it. I will probably put a one-and-done post out today, though.

May I ask a Bust in what way

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, thunderbolt said:

May I ask a Bust in what way

I don't think its going to become as strong as some were speculating. Should still be a hurricane, though. The operative word in my statement was relative.

[Radtechwxman]

Deep burst of convection now wrapping into the LLC. Will see if it maintains. If so strengthening should commence again. I do agree with 40/70 Benchmark and ceiling is likely lower now with this one unless something really crazy happens today. 

[thunderbolt]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think its going to become as strong as some were speculating. Should still be a hurricane, though. The operative word in my statement was relative.

OK, thank you for answering, but I don’t believe anybody was calling for a cat 4 or car 5 coming in to Louisiana to be honest with you  at least from what I’ve been reading, but I believe a category 2 is very reasonable as a prediction just my own thoughts

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

OK, thank you for answering, but I don’t believe anybody was calling for a cat 4 or car 5 coming in to Louisiana to be honest with you  at least from what I’ve been reading, but I believe a category 2 is very reasonable as a prediction just my own thoughts

First of all, many were speculating on a 3 and some guidance was even hinting at 4. Secondly, I think cat 2 is a reach at this point. I think maybe 100mph is the ceiling, which jives with the NHC stating that their 100mph forecast was at the high end of guidance.