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Central PA Autumn 2024


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34 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Great post Nut.  Really good.  Damn near brought a tear to my eye. 

Thanks pal.  Wasn't the intent, but as I'm aging, I'm trying to do it w/ more humility and being real, and as I know @candersonpain, I just felt like sharing a little personal stuff that I typically don't do, as we all have crosses n challenges to bear everyday.  If it resonates and makes some pick up the phone, pay a visit, or bury an axe....well I'll take it.

I've got some good friends in here, that help to make my life "fuller".  I appreciate you all as well.  My village has many in it.  I'm blessed.  

 

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14 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

Its amazing that sometimes it takes death to appreciate life. as some of you know, i was knocking on the gates a couple months ago. Hell didn't want me and heaven wasn't ready to take me yet.  i look at things completly different then i did before. 

So happy you've come back around friend.

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14 hours ago, Santa Clause said:

Idk I just kinda found other non snow related hobbies since it’s becoming a rarer phenomenon…disc golf and bass fishing in particular…you’d be surprised how decent stream bass fishing can be in November-January if you know the right tricks.

I fish all winter as long as there is no ice on the river. That’s when the big girls bite.

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3 hours ago, Voyager said:

@mahantango#1

I'm going to be Sunbury bound later this week and the beginning of next week. I expect a red carpet out on the main drag through Pillow on Thursday morning... :P

I'll tell the Amish to spread road apples on the highway and to get every buggy out on the road for your anticipated arrival.

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We might not have to look too far in the future for wintry precip in C-PA by the way.

image.thumb.png.aefcf92117ce6c600336b88d6746029d.pngimage.thumb.png.b353a72569d3e7d55d439f3f6555f862.png

While likely to be relegated to the north-central and Laurels, the overrunning precip slated for arriving Thurs morning is being portrayed as freezing rain (Allegheny Front and some of the ridge lines in the ridge and valley) and perhaps a period of snow (primarily higher north central) on some models. This was mentioned in the AFD this morning.The NAM and GFS (until todays 12z) has been hinting at this the last couple runs.  The Euros thermals are debatable even though it shows mostly rain. The setup is there in terms of having some cold air damming with high pressure north of Maine and the approaching weakening surface low. How far temps drop Wed night will figure into any ZR. Otherwise, how much column temps cool at the onset of the overrunning will dictate any snow potential. Again, this potential is primarily in the north-central.. but still a reminder we’re not very far off from more wintry things. 

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40 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

We might not have to look too far in the future for wintry precip in C-PA by the way.

image.thumb.png.aefcf92117ce6c600336b88d6746029d.pngimage.thumb.png.b353a72569d3e7d55d439f3f6555f862.png

While likely to be relegated to the north-central and Laurels, the overrunning precip slated for arriving Thurs morning is being portrayed as freezing rain (Allegheny Front and some of the ridge lines in the ridge and valley) and perhaps a period of snow (primarily higher north central) on some models. This was mentioned in the AFD this morning.The NAM and GFS (until todays 12z) has been hinting at this the last couple runs.  The Euros thermals are debatable even though it shows mostly rain. The setup is there in terms of having some cold air damming with high pressure north of Maine and the approaching weakening surface low. How far temps drop Wed night will figure into any ZR. Otherwise, how much column temps cool at the onset of the overrunning will dictate any snow potential. Again, this potential is primarily in the north-central.. but still a reminder we’re not very far off from more wintry things. 

maybe a weather word not often heard....

Graupel.

 

Thanks for ticking the "winter" trackin up a notch...

May only have a small window of opportunity this year, but we'll take what we can get. 

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The GFS has persistently being running a major hurricane up the southern peninsula of Florida...which would eventually have soaking rains implications for us as a system in the Midwest is blocked by the ridge between the hurricane and itself and spreads several soaking rain (some snow far north) sessions over us.  Still 9-10 days out but a fairly enthusiastic chance of drought denting as to consistency in runs. CMC has a more convoluted, less strong cane scenario which is as likely as anything but moisture coming north from the SE is the key for us whether a major cane or not. 

 

image.thumb.png.5924fe3bd36360e268a8b69aa975e0fb.png

 

 

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50 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The GFS has persistently being running a major hurricane up the southern peninsula of Florida...which would eventually have soaking rains implications for us as a system in the Midwest is blocked by the ridge between the hurricane and itself and spreads several soaking rain (some snow far north) sessions over us.  Still 9-10 days out but a fairly enthusiastic chance of drought denting as to consistency in runs. CMC has a more convoluted, less strong cane scenario which is as likely as anything but moisture coming north from the SE is the key for us whether a major cane or not. 

 

image.thumb.png.5924fe3bd36360e268a8b69aa975e0fb.png

 

 

Looks like cold air follows it’s departure in the NE US.

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The 3K goes out of its way to show Harrisburg not going below 32/33.  LOL.  Rgem is much colder than anything else.  Mid 20's for many.    HRRR is low 30's.    Fv3 upper 20's except Harrisburg.    Do not recall so many models showing the HIA. 

Dewpoints around 30F and also breezy. Could stay above freezing at MDT.


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16 minutes ago, Superstorm said:


Dewpoints around 30F and also breezy. Could stay above freezing at MDT.


.

 

12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I certainly would not bet even $1 on them breaking the barrier.   They have burnet me too often.   Dews drop into the teens on the rgem.  A big part of the difference as you suggested. 

And tomorrow night will be all about the timing of the arrival of clouds. Could be a night when temps are already near freezing prior to midnight but then might hold steady or slowly rise from there. 

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

And tomorrow night will be all about the timing of the arrival of clouds. Could be a night when temps are already near freezing prior to midnight but then might hold steady or slowly rise from there. 

I am planning on covering the plants tomorrow as well.  No reason to risk. 

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9 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I've spent a lot of time this year thinking about this and things related to it. 

I turn 60 in 10 months. I don't know why, but I never flinched at hitting 40, 50, or any other subsequent years in my 50s. The understanding that I'll be 60 though...I'm struggling with it. Things that seemed to matter a lot in years past are starting to become increasingly less significant and things that I always took for granted are now becoming more valued, and more urgent. Most of my "circle" in life from the time I was young is also a fair amount older than I am. As an only child I tended to gravitate towards those older than I was to "show me the way" so to speak. And now many in my circle are retired and all of a sudden...well, life priorities are changing quickly. People matter a whole lot more than material things, sports, etc. Those can be replaced or removed. Relationships cannot. 

Thanks for sharing these thoughts.

Good points all around that serve as a reminder that life is short. Each day is a gift. We don’t know exactly how many years that we’ll get to spend on this earth, so we must try to make the best of it each day for ourselves & for our loved ones.

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