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Central PA Autumn 2024


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Just now, pasnownut said:

Last year we really did miss out on a couple periods that could have made a notable difference in our mindsets winterwise....

Yes we did. And that's why I sort of feel like it's inevitable that forecasters are going to get burnt sooner than later. (us "lucking" into something good) 

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2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

You guys are not the only 2 snowhounds.....some of us just pay a little less attention (ok for me... a LOT less), as it's just less painful...and better for my my mental well being.....and we all love pleasant surprises.  Gonna b what its gonna be.  My daughter is gettin shellacked in Colorado.  Told her to send me pics.

Good stuff even 120hr digital snow maps make me happy!

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5 hours ago, pasnownut said:

You guys are not the only 2 snowhounds.....some of us just pay a little less attention (ok for me... a LOT less), as it's just less painful...and better for my my mental well being.....and we all love pleasant surprises.  Gonna b what its gonna be.  My daughter is gettin shellacked in Colorado.  Told her to send me pics.

The time is coming soon for all of us snow hounds on here to get to tracking.

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From our good friend DT:

WINTER FORECAST
2024-25 PREVIEW
https://youtu.be/_eP1DiDHCYg

 

Wxrisk.com  (804) 307-8070

SUMMARY
This is a long video -about 28 minutes but it moves pretty quick and there are lots of images in it. I start out reviewing the snow drought which has been pretty bad and WHY that has been occurring.. The last winter featured a very strong El Nino event. Before that we had three consecutive La Nina winters ( 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23)
FACT -over the last 32 years there have only had seven Winters where the equatorial Pacific has seen normal conditions.
The CONSENSUS FORECAST calls a Weak to Moderate La Nina but the data looks quite weak and there's a really good chance La Nina might not form at all.
So I look at what happens if we have a weak La Nina and how it is significantly colder and stormier when compared to a moderate or strong La Nina.
Then I look at what happens if there is No La Nina OR if La Nina ends by JAN 1. If that is the case the probability is much higher that the central and eastern US will see a near normal winter .
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18 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

45 this morning. Wife got up around 1am and shut our bedroom window that wind was gusting. I guess our summer in November is history now. NWS has me down to 25 tomorrow morning.

Low 60's possible this weekend...guess that is not summer but it is damn nice.   Tomorrow still looks like MDT's only chance for a 32 looking LR. 

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8 hours ago, canderson said:

Getting older sucks. It’s not the body aches and physical aging but losing friends. 
 

I lost one of my bests tonight. Don’t feel too embarrassed to tell friend you love them. 

Very sorry to hear this. I also lost a lifelong friend this year to a battle with cancer. He was far too young. Grieving your loss.

Low of 46. Chilly night on tap. Probably have to bring in the palm. 

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Our high temperatures for today occurred overnight before the cold front passed through earlier in the morning. Temperatures will remain in the 40's for highs through Thursday before we start a slow moderating trend toward the weekend. Most spots, even higher spots like here in East Nantmeal should see their first freeze of the autumn season tonight. Our only shot at rain looks to be Thursday evening.

image.png.b46fa37c1ef2ee0b7e3e3226345be1ed.pngimage.thumb.png.f075470c43c5b9046c7d11bbcc64c860.png

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19 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Our high temperatures for today occurred overnight before the cold front passed through earlier in the morning. Temperatures will remain in the 40's for highs through Thursday before we start a slow moderating trend toward the weekend. Most spots, even higher spots like here in East Nantmeal should see their first freeze of the autumn season tonight. Our only shot at rain looks to be Thursday evening.

image.png.b46fa37c1ef2ee0b7e3e3226345be1ed.pngimage.thumb.png.f075470c43c5b9046c7d11bbcc64c860.png

MDT was 48 around sunrise and is back up to 52 now.    I have risen from a low of 42 up to 50 at this point. 

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1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Very sorry to hear this. I also lost a lifelong friend this year to a battle with cancer. He was far too young. Grieving your loss.

Low of 46. Chilly night on tap. Probably have to bring in the palm. 

Midnight high today!  Surprised you are not on that!    Have to wait and make sure MDT does sneak to 57 this afternoon.  Mesos's say no. 

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12 hours ago, Santa Clause said:

Idk I just kinda found other non snow related hobbies since it’s becoming a rarer phenomenon…disc golf and bass fishing in particular…you’d be surprised how decent stream bass fishing can be in November-January if you know the right tricks.

1/4 sticks of dynamite will keep my hands from getting cold while "fishing"....

that is if I dont blow them off while lighting fuse.

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11 hours ago, canderson said:

Getting older sucks. It’s not the body aches and physical aging but losing friends. 
 

I lost one of my bests tonight. Don’t feel too embarrassed to tell friend you love them. 

Good on you for doing so, and sorry for your loss. 

told my bestie just that while we were pallbearers for one our our good friends that succumbed to the horrible C word (the other one)....this past spring.  I spent the last few months of his life with him in and out of hospitals and bedside.  Frequently told him just that. 

Life closed in a lot this year, as I lost/buried 5 in 3 month period earlier this year. 

Be humbled and thankful for what you have (especially health wise)...and complain less about what we dont have.  Can't get friends back, but we'll see em on the other side.

 

 

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34 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Be humbled and thankful for what you have (especially health wise)...and complain less about what we dont have.  Can't get friends back, but we'll see em on the other side.

I've spent a lot of time this year thinking about this and things related to it. 

I turn 60 in 10 months. I don't know why, but I never flinched at hitting 40, 50, or any other subsequent years in my 50s. The understanding that I'll be 60 though...I'm struggling with it. Things that seemed to matter a lot in years past are starting to become increasingly less significant and things that I always took for granted are now becoming more valued, and more urgent. Most of my "circle" in life from the time I was young is also a fair amount older than I am. As an only child I tended to gravitate towards those older than I was to "show me the way" so to speak. And now many in my circle are retired and all of a sudden...well, life priorities are changing quickly. People matter a whole lot more than material things, sports, etc. Those can be replaced or removed. Relationships cannot. 

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

I think he is arranging to throw petunias down for you to drive on. 

Speaking of which, I still have a big pot of Geraniums out in our front yard that still look really good considering I've had 4 sub-freezing mornings including one day when it was in the 20s. I also have a tomato plant that had tomatoes ripening up last week! 

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Speaking of which, I still have a big pot of Geraniums out in our front yard that still look really good considering I've had 4 sub-freezing mornings including one day when it was in the 20s. I also have a tomato plant that had tomatoes ripening up last week! 

We are planning on covering our marigolds tonight in hopes of getting them to Thanksgiving, they look so good right now.     With no freezing here yet we are still harvesting peppers, raspberry's and strawberries.   Bonus veggies and fruits.  LOL. 

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53 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Good on you for doing so, and sorry for your loss. 

told my bestie just that while we were pallbearers for one our our good friends that succumbed to the horrible C word (the other one)....this past spring.  I spent the last few months of his life with him in and out of hospitals and bedside.  Frequently told him just that. 

Life closed in a lot this year, as I lost/buried 5 in 3 month period earlier this year. 

Be humbled and thankful for what you have (especially health wise)...and complain less about what we dont have.  Can't get friends back, but we'll see em on the other side.

 

 

Great post Nut.  Really good.  Damn near brought a tear to my eye. 

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1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

Good on you for doing so, and sorry for your loss. 

told my bestie just that while we were pallbearers for one our our good friends that succumbed to the horrible C word (the other one)....this past spring.  I spent the last few months of his life with him in and out of hospitals and bedside.  Frequently told him just that. 

Life closed in a lot this year, as I lost/buried 5 in 3 month period earlier this year. 

Be humbled and thankful for what you have (especially health wise)...and complain less about what we dont have.  Can't get friends back, but we'll see em on the other side.

 

 

Its amazing that sometimes it takes death to appreciate life. as some of you know, i was knocking on the gates a couple months ago. Hell didn't want me and heaven wasn't ready to take me yet.  i look at things completly different then i did before. 

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