Central PA Autumn 2024

[Mount Joy Snowman]

On 10/24/2024 at 11:41 AM, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Since it's being bantered about, I don't think this month will end up as anything too special (probably ~2 degrees AN).  I did my end-of-month chicken scratch and have us ending October with a mean temp of 58.1, which would be tied with 1990 for 22nd place all-time.  The extent of the warmth on the last couple of days could throw a wrench into things but I'm pretty comfortable with that number.  Book it.

Confession:  When I did the above calculation, I overdid the temperature for the very first day (last Thursday) by almost 6 degrees, due to a sneaky midnight temp that I missed.  That, along with a few other days coming in cooler than expected, is going to lead to this calculation being off by a solid half degree.  Unacceptable on my part, and I swear to never let this happen again. Well, at least until the next time it happens.  In closing, with one day left in the month (bold I know haha), I can now confidently say that the final mean monthly temp for October will be 57.6 degrees, good for a T-28th place with 1975.  I humbly ask for your forgiveness.  Ciao. 

[Itstrainingtime]

MU Weather Center

@MUweather

The current visible satellite suggests that very few cirrus clouds will stream across the LSV until the mid-to-late afternoon hours. Thus, I now expect the #Halloween record high of 81°F from 1946 at@millersvilleu to be tied or broken! SW flow and high mid-level temps will help.

#October2024 will conclude as the 2nd-driest on record at@millersvilleu with a measly 0.04" of rain. Only October 1963 was drier due to there being a trace of rain that month. Today will be the 26th-straight day with no measurable rain at the 'Ville. Phew! We need rain.. #pawx

[paweather]

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

MU Weather Center

@MUweather

The current visible satellite suggests that very few cirrus clouds will stream across the LSV until the mid-to-late afternoon hours. Thus, I now expect the #Halloween record high of 81°F from 1946 at@millersvilleu to be tied or broken! SW flow and high mid-level temps will help.

#October2024 will conclude as the 2nd-driest on record at@millersvilleu with a measly 0.04" of rain. Only October 1963 was drier due to there being a trace of rain that month. Today will be the 26th-straight day with no measurable rain at the 'Ville. Phew! We need rain.. #pawx

TCC will open his arms to this! Congrats TCC!

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, paweather said:

TCC will open his arms to this! Congrats TCC!

Congrats @Mount Joy Snowman if this indeed happens. He's been all over this for at least the past 7-10 days. 

[paweather]

2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Congrats @Mount Joy Snowman if this indeed happens. He's been all over this for at least the past 7-10 days. 

Now that is a real congrats! Great job MJS. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

14 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Congrats @Mount Joy Snowman if this indeed happens. He's been all over this for at least the past 7-10 days. 

 

11 minutes ago, paweather said:

Now that is a real congrats! Great job MJS. 

Let's not count our chickens just yet!  Still has to happen ha.  But things are looking up. 

[Superstorm]

53 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

MU Weather Center

@MUweather

The current visible satellite suggests that very few cirrus clouds will stream across the LSV until the mid-to-late afternoon hours. Thus, I now expect the #Halloween record high of 81°F from 1946 at@millersvilleu to be tied or broken! SW flow and high mid-level temps will help.

#October2024 will conclude as the 2nd-driest on record at@millersvilleu with a measly 0.04" of rain. Only October 1963 was drier due to there being a trace of rain that month. Today will be the 26th-straight day with no measurable rain at the 'Ville. Phew! We need rain.. #pawx

Going to be alot of warm records broken this coming winter.

[Superstorm]

Going to be another run for 80F next week. More record breaking heat.

November looks like an absolute torch. Warmest November ever? Possibly.


.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Now, let's talk about those record highs for next Tuesday and Wednesday -- 79 and 77.  A couple of more Indian summer days on tap.  Keep your ear to the ground. 

National high of 98 at Rio Grande Village, TX and low of -1 near Wahsatch, ID.  A couple of days ago, Berlin, NH snagged the low with a 14, and prior to that Mt. Washington came in with a 4.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

2 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Going to be another run for 80F next week. More record breaking heat.

November looks like an absolute torch. Warmest November ever? Possibly.


.

Good timing on this post ha.  Agree about next week but I'm not ready to go there yet on the monthly, even though CPC is hinting at it.  Last time someone did that I believe was @canderson and if I'm not mistaken we ended up with a BN month haha.  I know he remembers it well!

[Itstrainingtime]

13 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Going to be alot of warm records broken this coming winter.

Last year MU released his Winter Outlook on 11/3 so his 2024-25 Forecast should be out in the next week or so. 

[Bubbler86]

MDT sitting at 66/67 4-10 behind all the other stations but only 67 at rou. 

[canderson]

It's 69 here and considering it jumped 22 degrees from noon to 2 pm yesterday ... I have faith we can tie or set a record.

[paweather]

21 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Last year MU released his Winter Outlook on 11/3 so his 2024-25 Forecast should be out in the next week or so. 

inside rumor has the forecast being 50-75" of the white stuff. Just a rumor for now. 

[Itstrainingtime]

17 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

MDT sitting at 66/67 4-10 behind all the other stations but only 67 at rou. 

MDT SHOULD be a bit lower today than areas like where I live - SW winds typically chill their temp since the river temp is now lower than it was over the summer. 

[Itstrainingtime]

5 minutes ago, paweather said:

inside rumor has the forecast being 50-75" of the white stuff. Just a rumor for now. 

That rumor has no legs...I have a better chance of joining the Embiid fan club before that happens. 

 

[paweather]

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

That rumor has no legs...

 

Its an attention seeker. 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, paweather said:

Its an attention seeker. 

I edited my post to further explain my position on this topic. LOL

You certainly got my attention! 

[Itstrainingtime]

All of you people reporting temps in the 60s - currently at home it's 75.4! (and 75.2 at the airport)

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I edited my post to further explain my position on this topic. LOL

You certainly got my attention! 

Me thinks he just gave up that his insider info comes from direct messages originating in Marysville. 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Me thinks he just gave up that his insider info comes from direct messages originating in Marysville. 

If true...surprised that the source didn't go higher. 

[Itstrainingtime]

76 at MU currently. 

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

All of you people reporting temps in the 60s - currently at home it's 75.4! (and 75.2 at the airport)

CXY jumped to 70 mid morning but has only gone up 3 since then slowing down when their wind took on an Easterly component which is surprising. 

 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

76 at MU currently. 

Record incoming?  Seems likely. 

[Bubbler86]

"Official" noon run down

THV 79

AOO 79

CXY 74/75

LNS 73/74

HGR 73

MUI 73

MDT 69/70

ROU 69

IPT 62/63

 

 

 

[paweather]

29 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Me thinks he just gave up that his insider info comes from direct messages originating in Marysville. 

Bingo! LOL. 

[MAG5035]

56 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Going to be another run for 80F next week. More record breaking heat.

November looks like an absolute torch. Warmest November ever? Possibly.


.

The potential of that is on the table. Certainly the opening 10+ days of the month look very warm…probably to the point where it’ll be hard to reverse what will likely be sizeable + departures even if we have a normal or colder than normal regime set up later on in November. We need a major shakeup in things to get the ball rolling toward some kind of a different pattern. We’ve had frontal passages and such but not any kind of major systems so far this fall that could be a catalyst to driving a more meaningful pattern change.. hence the persistent lack of rainfall here and the relatively stagnant pattern. Not really seeing a change in that status quo on modelling currently. MJO poised to make an 8-1-2 run, which figures to keep the tropics alive for potential late season activity in close near the US from that realm. Even with that, the mid latitude pattern doesn’t really look too conducive to yanking something like that up to juice up some kind of major system either. Eventually that change will come, but how long it takes will determine whether a really warm front part of November turns into the warmest one overall. 

[canderson]

77 now at 12:40. It’s also humid. 
 

It’s like June. 

[Bubbler86]

25 minutes ago, paweather said:

Bingo! LOL. 

[paweather]

5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I just love it!!!!!