anotherman Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Waddams is hanging on. The shear that was supposed to relatively demolish this guy just isn't getting it done and it appears the ERC has finished and final approach may be harsher than initially thought. Most thought it wouldn't recover before landfall. That is NOT good news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Bubbler, you're the Florida man of the group. Costlier disaster: This thing landfalls just south of Tampa and spares the worst of the surge going right up the gut but still destroys a lot of the surrounding areas, or a landfall around Cape Coral where it appears there is a boom in construction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 21 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Bubbler, you're the Florida man of the group. Costlier disaster: This thing landfalls just south of Tampa and spares the worst of the surge going right up the gut but still destroys a lot of the surrounding areas, or a landfall around Cape Coral where it appears there is a boom in construction? Florda Man is an insult. Ha. I unfortunately think this thing landfalls into Tampa or St Pete and throws 10–15-foot surge into Tampa and still destroys LBK, AMI, Bradenton Beaches, etc. This is all assuming the surge predicts are right, I have no way of knowing that other than to trust those models. I think the worst case for money is a landfall from Cedar Key down to Sarasota. If I am wrong and it is down as far as Sarasota, then Tampa is spared some surge. The Barrier Islands all the way down to the tip of Florida get flooded as well if it landfalls between Cedar Key and Sarasota. Someone could see surge going 5-10 miles inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Jesus Christ. Milton's bands are throwing out wedges and stove pipes. This is a Dixie Alley outbreak preceding a major hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 PDS Tornado Warning for Lee and Charlotte counties. This is insanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Meanwhile, back home, I have been frost advised. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 This situation in Florida just screams "Nerd creating an EAS scenario video on YouTube" with the major hurricane and PDS tornadic outbreak. My EAS scenario Bingo card is just missing something happening to a nuclear reactor from being a winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Wobble, wobble, wobble. Forecast track has moved North a bit but still into Bradenton or Sarasota vs. Tampa WFLA.com Wobble Tracker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 2pm advisory: 130 mph, 944 mb as Milton grows to be a big boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 4 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: 2pm advisory: 130 mph, 944 mb as Milton grows to be a big boy. It seems to be moving for the coast a bit early compared to some of the models the last 24 hours...but will go with high Cat 2 or Low Cat 3 at landfall. With it being 130 now, Cat 4 is probably off the books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Tornadoes. On 95. Wild. Maybe it'll take the drive up to see Pedro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: It seems to be moving for the coast a bit early compared to some of the models the last 24 hours...but will go with high Cat 2 or Low Cat 3 at landfall. With it being 130 now, Cat 4 is probably off the books. The only positive I see is that it should be across Florida and into the Atlantic in 6-8 hours. Worst case is for it to meander off the west coast for hours before making its move inland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Just now, mitchnick said: The only positive I see is that it should be across Florida and into the Atlantic in 6-8 hours. Worst case is for it to meander off the west coast for hours before making its move inland. I think some East Coast people are in for a tough time as well. From the 'Cane itself then the onshore flow once it passes by. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 Morons are currently on the beaches in St. Pete and Clearwater. I'm going to go ahead and crush a soapbox right now: If you are in an area that is under mandatory evac, if you are caught outside, the jail sentence you should receive should be staggering. And the fine you receive should bankrupt your descendants. Rescue should not be an option. You are on your own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 2 hours ago, Atomixwx said: Morons are currently on the beaches in St. Pete and Clearwater. I'm going to go ahead and crush a soapbox right now: If you are in an area that is under mandatory evac, if you are caught outside, the jail sentence you should receive should be staggering. And the fine you receive should bankrupt your descendants. Rescue should not be an option. You are on your own. I think most people left will not get rescue until windows go below 40. He has his eyes on Tampa right now with the eye wall. But he is falling apart like the Cowboys Super Bowl aspirations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 God be with our fam 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 The eye will pass directly over my family. Insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 I'm disastexhausted. We need a month of tranquility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 The eye way ranges from Southern Tampa Bay down to south of Sarasota right now with the center being near Sarasota. Extremely large eye now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 3 hours ago, Atomixwx said: Morons are currently on the beaches in St. Pete and Clearwater. I'm going to go ahead and crush a soapbox right now: If you are in an area that is under mandatory evac, if you are caught outside, the jail sentence you should receive should be staggering. And the fine you receive should bankrupt your descendants. Rescue should not be an option. You are on your own. Cheaper to let them go and just pay for their funeral. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 17 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Cheaper to let them go and just pay for their funeral. Lol What funeral? Viking funeral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 9 Share Posted October 9 The way this storm has stopped has really mitigated the initial surge. Will see what happens when the winds veer. An outer eye wall of 60 miles also mitigating it. Inner Corner just south of Sarasota right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 Those model runs of 1-2 feet of rain, from 7-10 days ago, were quite prophetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted October 10 Author Share Posted October 10 11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Those model runs of 1-2 feet of rain, from 7-10 days ago, were quite prophetic. Some areas getting 5-6"/hour. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 Friend down in St Pete is safe. Said worst he has been through in 40 years. Frost on my truck windshield this morning 37 degrees. Winter season is officially starting . 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 41 this AM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 38 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 304 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024 PAZ019-025>028-034-035-045-046-049>053-058-101700- /O.NEW.KCTP.FR.Y.0010.241011T0600Z-241011T1300Z/ Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton- Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Columbia-Schuylkill- Including the cities of Lewistown, Shamokin, Lock Haven, Huntingdon, State College, Mifflintown, Bedford, Williamsport, Selinsgrove, Lewisburg, Altoona, McConnellsburg, Sunbury, Pottsville, Berwick, Mount Union, Danville, and Bloomsburg 304 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures as low as 33 degrees will result in frost formation. * WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania, including the Middle Susquehanna Valley. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants and vegetation from the cold. Potted plants should be brought inside. The frost will occur mainly in valley locations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 i have friends down there that are on USAR team so i'm i am really trying to pay attention to what the teams are doing. Last night i read so many tornados popped there was multiple collapse's. and the teams were being deployed to start searching 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 10 Share Posted October 10 7 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 304 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024 PAZ019-025>028-034-035-045-046-049>053-058-101700- /O.NEW.KCTP.FR.Y.0010.241011T0600Z-241011T1300Z/ Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton- Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Columbia-Schuylkill- Including the cities of Lewistown, Shamokin, Lock Haven, Huntingdon, State College, Mifflintown, Bedford, Williamsport, Selinsgrove, Lewisburg, Altoona, McConnellsburg, Sunbury, Pottsville, Berwick, Mount Union, Danville, and Bloomsburg 304 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY... * WHAT...Temperatures as low as 33 degrees will result in frost formation. * WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania, including the Middle Susquehanna Valley. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday. * IMPACTS...Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Take steps now to protect tender plants and vegetation from the cold. Potted plants should be brought inside. The frost will occur mainly in valley locations. My first potted plants warning is coming soon. Just missed this one. Potted plants are a mixed thing as we see it on the way in and out of winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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