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Central PA Autumn 2024


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The variability of the run-to-run issues/changes in dealing with the gulf is making it tough to forecast.    Now GFS has a Cat 1 or Trop Storm right into Tampa Bay.  Fairly decent agreement on the Icon with double digit rains in Central Florida.   CMC again holds the energy back for a Trop Storm later in the week. 

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1 hour ago, Voyager said:

A half a day of sunshine yesterday and now back to this overcast crap again. I'm so depressed right now. With everything going on, and NOT going on, in my life right now this is not needed. I'm really beginning to think I should have stayed out west.

Looks like a sunny and fantastic weather weekend though....hopefully your other issues start to lessen.  It is tough to feel normal when life is throwing bad stuff at us.   Our next real chance of rain not until Sunday Night/Monday AM. 

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With autumn upon us I thought I would look at the average first freeze along with earliest and latest occurrence across Chester County PA at all 31 available stations. As you might expect the relative lower elevations experience freezes and the end of the growing season about 6 days earlier compared to the somewhat higher spots. There is great variability across the years with the earliest recorded freeze being at Phoenixville on September 17, 1986 and the latest being over 2 months later at Devault 1W on December 2nd 1985. The average date of the first freeze is October 23 at elevations below 407 ft ASL and October 29 above 440 ft ASL.

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11 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Nws has me mid 60's during the day and mid 40's at night Monday-Wednesday. No complaints here. Guess I'll be burning some oil.

Actually, it's been updated to upper 60's on Monday, mid 60's Tuesday and Wednesday, and lower 60's on Thursday!

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4 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Should be some decent aurora action on the 6th. Northern folks having the best shot at seeing something. Still have never witnessed the northern lights. Maybe this time as this flare was strong and directed right at earth.

I saw it back in 87 or 88 when I was in college in Wspt.  Was driving on 220 twds lock haven.  

COOL 

ASS

SHIT.

I hope you get a chance someday.  

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73 degrees currently, partly cloudy. 
Got my mows in a 4” cut and then a 3”. The zero turn put a few divots in the yard. Guess I should have let it dry out a little more.

Wmsptwx It won’t be long,  it will be heating season.

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Took the time to push mow the grass tonight at mid-height on the deck blade and it was the right call. I think my yard looks better right now than it has all season, and it's going to require another mow in a few days with all the sun we've had the last two days. 

Gorgeous night, this. 

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35 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

53 with fog about as thick as it can get this AM.    Visibility well under 1/4 mile.  Just 100-200 feet at best. 

Ughhh. So tired of the humidity. No ground fog here but it's a very low overcast. Closest Wunderground station says 62, which explains the lack of fog. At 53, I'd be in the soup.

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40 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Ughhh. So tired of the humidity. No ground for here but it's a very low overcast. Closest Wunderground station says 62, which explains the lack of fog. At 53, I'd be in the soup.

Quite often when I get my worst fog events, the MD NWS has the headline like this am.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Visibility of a quarter mile or less in dense fog.

* WHERE...Portions of central, north central, northern, and western
  Maryland, northern Virginia, and eastern West Virginia.

* WHEN...Until 8 AM EDT this morning.

* IMPACTS...Low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If driving, slow down, use your headlights, and leave plenty of
distance ahead of you.

 

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Happy Red October Phillies Day to those who celebrate!!! Go Phillies!
A beautiful stretch of autumnal weather on the way with both today and tomorrow reaching above normal high temps in the low 70's before we chill down to well below average highs starting on Monday and thru the rest of the week. Nigh time lows starting tonight will be in the 40's and maybe some 30's by Wednesday morning. Some shower chances increase by Sunday night with a cold frontal passage - otherwise a dry week.
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Fwiw, new Euro monthly out today is a bit cooler than last runs and has a similar progression thru the winter of cooling as Cfs2 and Cansips We're still AN for the months, but less than prior runs. December has the greatest AN anomalies solidly in the +1-2C while January is barely in the  +1-2C meaning we're close to the +.5-1C, which is not too warm for seasonal snow. February drops to only +.5-1C.

The good news is we are solidly in normal precip each month. With occasional cold intrusion that would be expected with those kind of temp anomalies and normal precip, a few decently timed short waves might get us to something closer to normal than recent years.

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Fwiw, new Euro monthly out today is a bit cooler than last runs and has a similar progression thru the winter of cooling as Cfs2 and Cansips We're still AN for the months, but less than prior runs. December has the greatest AN anomalies solidly in the +1-2C while January is barely in the  +1-2C meaning we're close to the +.5-1C, which is not too warm for seasonal snow. February drops to only +.5-1C.
The good news is we are solidly in normal precip each month. With occasional cold intrusion that would be expected with those kind of temp anomalies and normal precip, a few decently timed short waves might get us to something closer to normal than recent years.

2009-2010….give me above normal temps and lots of snow. I don’t care if it melts the next day.


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