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Central PA Autumn 2024


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1 minute ago, Jns2183 said:

How snowy is snowy mountain really? Who named it?

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

The origins of Snowy Mountain's name is unknown but I might have an idea about that. The entire summit ridge is covered in white quartz along with some that has formed into crystals. Some of the quartz is mixed into conglomerate which makes for many interesting designs as well which may have lead to the mountain's name.

 

https://www.summitpost.org/snowy-mountain/152766#google_vignette

 

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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

6z GFS has the storm chance next weekend right where we want it next weekend…

Plenty of time for a few ticks north.

IMG_7770.png

So many possibilities with this one, but the Gfs/Gem scare me if it does emerge as a snowstorm vs the Euro rainstorm. 

Niñas are infamous for Va/NC snowstorms and the evolution "currently" advertised on the Gfs/Gem are just that, and except for a few tease runs showing a northward progression, they often fail to make it north of Fredericksburg, VA. Believe me when I say, from a BWI perspective where I  spent most of my life, it is painful to suck cirrus through dim sunlight.

Looking ahead at the ensembles and weeklies, this appears to be our only shot at a decent, accumulating snowfall before the pattern relaxation i.e. warming, though not outrageously so.

All this is not to say that an 0z Euro scenario isn't out of the question, just that I have deeper scares from the southern fails. Lol

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I understand your concern with the next weekend storm chance, but we are currently not in a Nina yet. We are in a “nada” at this time, though a weak Nina may eventually develop soon.

Also, looking back on the model trends from 5 to 10 days before the Thanksgiving storm, the models were all over the place (as usual). Some runs even 5 to 7 days out showed us snowing with a perfect track, while others were weak with barely a storm signal. The Euro when it came on board had the amped more west solution that the models caved to eventually. 
My point is that there is lots of time to go to determine the timing or if there will even be a storm chance. 

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Here in East Nantmeal the low this morning of 24.4 degrees was our coldest reading since March 22nd when we reached 23 degrees. Today has a forecast to be our coldest high temperature (34 degrees) since the 34.3 degrees back on February 17th. We look to stay cold with below normal temperatures through the 1st 9 or 10 days of December before we should see a nice warming trend by mid-month. There could be a couple snow chances - the first chance on Wednesday night and maybe additional potential toward next weekend.

image.png.c500ca9f583a954b3670a6dea27d9c2f.pngimage.thumb.png.46154e70cb6784ee5b4d28a2de6db7ee.png

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1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I understand your concern with the next weekend storm chance, but we are currently not in a Nina yet. We are in a “nada” at this time, though a weak Nina may eventually develop soon.

Also, looking back on the model trends from 5 to 10 days before the Thanksgiving storm, the models were all over the place (as usual). Some runs even 5 to 7 days out showed us snowing with a perfect track, while others were weak with barely a storm signal. The Euro when it came on board had the amped more west solution that the models caved to eventually. 
My point is that there is lots of time to go to determine the timing or if there will even be a storm chance. 

I agree about everything being possible at this point. But seeing a Va/NC snowstorm for basically 3 runs in a row on the Gfs and then one pops up on the Gem last night, and I'm already googling grief counselors in the area!

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There is always talk that it doesn't snow like it used to in "the old days". Welp - At least here in the philly burbs of Chester County we had quite a few relatively snowy "winters of a lifetime" since 2002-03....all of the yellow highlighted seasons are just since Y2K!! Very cyclical as always!

image.thumb.png.7897ac2b42f30a054681d27aa0abc96a.png

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4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I agree about everything being possible at this point. But seeing a Va/NC snowstorm for basically 3 runs in a row on the Gfs and then one pops up on the Gem last night, and I'm already googling grief counselors in the area!

Lol, it’s too early for that!

Also, one of those GFS runs yesterday gave CTP a moderate hit. The Canadian yesterday (not last night) also had a decent hit for southern PA.

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