paweather Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Clipper parade? Might as well be. Sixers seem to like the Clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 12 minutes ago, paweather said: JB and DT probably soon will be going snow crazy! Unfortunately we dont see the trough axis heading west. Were that to happin words like WOOF and BIG DOG (Henry Margusutyism) would come to mind, but the current long term look is for "clippers on roids or clipperfest". I've got no problem w/ a parade of clippers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 looking at longer leads...GEPS is the one to root on as it holds the basic trough E ridge W look thru its entirety. GEFS only out to 300 has it, but looks like ridging trying to pop back in east. For how long, only time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 Fairly nice day out...54 and hardly a breeze. MDT has been above normal 12 of the last 13 days and decent chance of tacking one more on tomorrow before the cold arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 41°F and miserable outside. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 46 minutes ago, pasnownut said: looking at longer leads...GEPS is the one to root on as it holds the basic trough E ridge W look thru its entirety. GEFS only out to 300 has it, but looks like ridging trying to pop back in east. For how long, only time will tell. The good thing is both the Gefs and Geps still have a ridge out west. Towards the end of the runs the ridge moves west a bit which might alow for the gulf to open up some. Both have below normal 850s and 2m temps at the end of the runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 Both definitely have more moisture streaming from the south after day 10. Geps actually looks like a couple Coastals just looking at the precip orientation. Next week will be tough to get anything of significance while the coldest of anomalies are right on top of us. Probably will take to the second week of December till we have an opportunity with anything approaching from the Southwest. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 2 hours ago, pasnownut said: This is why I was poo poohin Mitchy poos post yesterday about not much to see. In the end he may well be spot on....but its not gonna be because the pattern sucks.... just our luck does. Cold/dry patterns, as hard as they have been to come by lately, are a lot easier than snowy patterns. Cold without snow is more frustrating to me than just a lousy/warm pattern. But, others may disagree. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 26 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Cold/dry patterns, as hard as they have been to come by lately, are a lot easier than snowy patterns. Cold without snow is more frustrating to me than just a lousy/warm pattern. But, others may disagree. Definitely a personal choice thing but for me, sunny and 50 is better than sunny and 20. I understand a skier disagreeing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 44 minutes ago, Chris78 said: The good thing is both the Gefs and Geps still have a ridge out west. Towards the end of the runs the ridge moves west a bit which might alow for the gulf to open up some. Both have below normal 850s and 2m temps at the end of the runs. Agreed. That sure would open the window for bigger things. Lets hope thats where this heads and not back to pig ridge/WAR in the east. Been there...did that a plenty. Time for a new regime (for as long as we can anyway as long rangers suggest Dec is our time to score.) I'm headed off grid for the next week. Dont miss me too much yall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 38 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Both definitely have more moisture streaming from the south after day 10. Geps actually looks like a couple Coastals just looking at the precip orientation. Next week will be tough to get anything of significance while the coldest of anomalies are right on top of us. Probably will take to the second week of December till we have an opportunity with anything approaching from the Southwest. you summed it up rather perfectly. Thanks for chiming in. Good to hear from ya. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 33 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Cold/dry patterns, as hard as they have been to come by lately, are a lot easier than snowy patterns. Cold without snow is more frustrating to me than just a lousy/warm pattern. But, others may disagree. My old bones agree, but my youthful mind is with the others.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 The 12z global ensembles still hold the favorable pattern in their day 10 to 15. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 The day 15 single day ensemble snapshots show below normal temps holding at the end of their runs today on December 12th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 Actually, ensemble snowfall means on all 3 jumped imby from being an inch+ for the last 4+ 360hr runs to between 2.5"-3+". Doesn't guarantee snow, of course, but odds have certainly increased, which is all you can hope for with ensemble means. Everything of consequence is day 7+, so that part still stinks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Actually, ensemble snowfall means on all 3 jumped imby from being an inch+ for the last 4+ 360hr runs to between 2.5"-3+". Doesn't guarantee snow, of course, but odds have certainly increased, which is all you can hope for with ensemble means. Everything of consequence is day 7+, so that part still stinks. Patience…maybe we enjoy a dusting to an inch or 2 with a couple of Clippers while we track storms with more upside the following week. Step 1 is getting the cold entrenched this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 24 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Patience…maybe we enjoy a dusting to an inch or 2 with a couple of Clippers while we track storms with more upside the following week. Step 1 is getting the cold entrenched this weekend. Patience...at my age? Naĥĥhhhhhh 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Patience...at my age? Naĥĥhhhhhh Plus, a lawyer. Double whammy. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 47 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Plus, a lawyer. Double whammy. Former lawyer. I officially filed the last papers in my last open estate on Monday. Finally! Should have happened a year ago but client just dragged his feet. Oh well, I'm done. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 HH GFS was a disappointment Not due to the lack of snow vs. the long wave pattern. It is a step back from 12Z with 40's to near 50 just a week out from now then a quick chill again before a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 27 Share Posted November 27 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: HH GFS was a disappointment Not due to the lack of snow vs. the long wave pattern. It is a step back from 12Z with 40's to near 50 just a week out from now then a quick chill again before a cutter. One thing is certain in this world...extended Gfs will be wrong, one way or the other. I'm more interested to see if the Gefs snow mean cr@ps the he'd from it's 12z run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 Dunkirk, NY is your spot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 A bit early but happy Thanksgiving to you all. I’m thankful for this weather loving community and all the expertise, humor and general talking we have in this subforum. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 I’ll admit I’ve not followed any models this week but CTP has a chance of snow showers and heavy snow at times for HBG Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 16 minutes ago, canderson said: I’ll admit I’ve not followed any models this week but CTP has a chance of snow showers and heavy snow at times for HBG Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Oh a clipper. I expect nothing but if we get 4” it’ll be amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 A decent Gfs run within 10 days, even if just barely! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 Happy Thanksgiving, cpa weather enthusiasts. Drive safe, it's a real shit festival out there this early morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 A half inch in the tipper so far this morning. Looks like a bit of a dry slot heading toward me per future radar, though. I just hope it stays overcast all day after the rain ends. As much as I love bright, sunny days, I like my Thanksgiving, and especially Christmas days, to be grey and cold looking. It adds to the "ambiance". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 Honestly, other than the 0z Gfs that reverted back to garbage, nothing encouraging on operational or ensemble runs imho. Happy Thanksgiving! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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